Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Talahi Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:26PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:27 PM EST (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 551 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect until 1 am est Thursday...
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming E 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight, then becoming se with gusts to 25 kt late. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft after midnight. Rain developing.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ300 551 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold front could move through early next week with a few showers followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Talahi Island, GA
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location: 32.12, -80.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 142336
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
636 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will affect the area into Thursday with cool and
dry high pressure then returning through this weekend. A cold
front could move through early next week with a few showers
followed by cool and dry high pressure once again into the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
A deep and tropical-like plume of moisture will extend across
the area, with pwat as much as 170-180% of normal for mid
november. This along with increasing and strengthening
isentropic ascent with cool air damming in place to our north-
northwest, and increasing forcing from an approaching wave of
low pressure from florida, which hugs the coast as it rides
northeast, will lead to widespread rainfall all areas. A strong
low level jet and difluence from the upper jet will further lead
to large scale forcing for ascent, and potentially some locally
heavy rains.

Our evening update as slowed down the onset of rainfall over to
the locations mainly over the north and east counties until the
late evening and overnight, with likely to categorical pop west
and southwest.

Depending upon if any instability get move onshore of the
coastal plain of the area overnight as the coastal warm front
attempts to move onshore, there could be a risk of isolated
t-storms, and higher rainfall rates. This could result in the
potential for localized flooding.

The strength of the low level jet and the packed gradient
between the in-situ wedge and the approaching low will lead to
northeast and east winds as high as 30-35 mph along the coastal
corridor.

Previous discussion...

the mid-levels will consist of a cut-off low over arkansas this
evening. The low is forecasted to move to the northeast, over
the middle ms valley by daybreak. At the surface, low pressure
is starting to develop over fl this evening. The low is
forecasted to strengthen and move northeastward, paralleling
our coastline after midnight. Attached to the low will be a
surface trough that will stretch inland. This feature will pass
over our area overnight. A deep plume of moisture is in place
across the region. Pwats are forecasted to reach 2" along the
coast late tonight. This is 2-3 standard deviations above normal
per naefs. Radar indicates a large area of stratiform
precipitation approaching from the west and southwest. Both
synoptic models and the cams seem to do fairly well on the
timing of the heaviest precipitation, which we tried to account
for in the hourly pops. Simply put, we have pops increasing into
this evening, peaking across our area during the hours close to
and after midnight. It's possible that far southwestern areas
may start seeing clearing around daybreak. Instability is not
very impressive. In fact, the highest values are offshore. It's
not out of the question a coastal county or two may here a
rumble of thunder overnight. But the probabilities are too low
to include this potential over land. QPF is comparable to what
we had. It will become windy on the beaches and barrier islands
where the steepest pressure gradient is expected. Temperatures
will remain nearly steady, then gradually fall overnight.

Lake winds: wind gusts may briefly approach lake wind advisory
criteria tonight. But the minimal amount of time this will occur
along with marginal confidence will prevent us from issuing one.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Relatively calm conditions will prevail through the period as low
pressure pulls away from the region and high pressure builds in from
the west. Rain will quickly end from southwest to northeast through
the day Thursday with dry conditions prevailing Thursday night into
Saturday. Clearing conditions will ensue Thursday in the wake of the
low with clear to mostly clear skies prevailing thereafter.

Temperatures will only warm into the mid-upper 50s Thursday and
Friday then moderate into the mid 60s by Saturday. Lows Friday night
will range from the mid 30s well inland to the mid-upper 40s at the
beaches. Could see patchy to scattered frost develop across the
far interior just before daybreak Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Dry weather will prevail through early next week as cooler high
pressure moves into the area. A weak area of low pressure may
develop offshore and cause a few showers mainly near the coast.

Temperatures should mostly stay near normal.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Rain has been slow in developing at and near kchs and ksav this
evening, but eventually it will develop and overspread the
terminals during the late evening and overnight as lift
increases ahead of an approaching wave of low pressure from the
south and southwest. MVFR conditions early in the valid 00z taf
cycle will lower to ifr as the rain occurs, and continues into
at least Thursday morning. As the low pulls away the rest of
Thursday, the rain will end, and there should be at least some
improvement back into the MVFR range after 15-16z.

An additional concern tonight will be winds, both surface and in
the lower levels. NE winds will be gusty at the surface as the
pressure pattern tightens between an inland wedge and the
approaching wave. Also, a 45-50 kt jet will traverse the area
for a few hours from about 04-09z, leading to low level wind
shear at both terminals.

Extended aviation outlook: no concerns.

Marine
Although the waters south of edisto within 20 nm has been slow
to start showing any winds of gale force, as low pressure moves
closer from the southwest during the late evening, and rain
starts developing, the pressure gradient will pinch even more.

As a result we have maintained gale warnings for all waters,
except the charleston harbor, where solid small craft advisory
conditions will prevail. No indications of t-storms any time
soon, but as the low draws closer, there could be a low end risk
for isolated t-storms overnight. We will continue to monitor for
such an occurrence.

Previous discussion...

tonight: gale warnings are in place for the ocean waters. A
small craft advisory is in place for the charleston harbor. The
combination of strong thermal and moisture gradients along with
low pressure passing along our coast will result in a steep
pressure gradient. Wind are expected to increase this evening,
peaking in the hours around midnight. Afterwards, winds should
start easing as the low moves away. Steep, wind-driven seas are
expected. Seas should peak at 6-10 ft within 20 nm and 12 foot
or greater closer to the gulf stream.

Thursday through Monday: conditions will gradually improve across
the local marine area Thursday as low pressure moves away from the
area. Seas are expected to drop below small craft advisory
thresholds Thursday morning across the nearshore waters and Thursday
afternoon for the georgia offshore waters Thursday evening. From
Friday on, northwest winds will turn northeast over the weekend with
speeds 15 kt or less. Seas will range 2-4 ft from Friday through
Monday.

High surf: gale conditions will cause elevated seas to continue,
as the offshore seas within 20 nm reach as high as 10 or 11 ft,
and 5 foot breakers occur in the surf zone, especially along the
northeast and east facing beaches. A high surf advisory remains in
effect.

Tides coastal flooding
Strengthening northeast winds will lead to increasing positive
tidal anomalies tonight. The high tide after midnight may see
greater than 2 ft departures at both downtown charleston and
fort pulaski. It looks unlikely that we will reach coastal flood
criteria. However, there remains a concern that steady rains
falling around that time may result in a mix of minor fresh and
salt water flooding.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... High surf advisory until 5 am est Thursday for gaz117-119-139-
141.

Sc... High surf advisory until 5 am est Thursday for scz051.

High surf advisory until 8 am est Thursday for scz048>050.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 am est Thursday for amz352-354-374.

Gale warning until 3 am est Thursday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for amz330.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi40 min ENE 16 G 21 58°F 66°F1021.4 hPa
41033 33 mi80 min Calm G 0
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 42 mi103 min NNE 5.1 55°F 1023 hPa51°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 50 mi38 min NE 23 G 25 67°F 71°F9 ft1018.5 hPa64°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA11 mi92 minNE 810.00 miOvercast57°F53°F89%1020.3 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA11 mi35 minNE 810.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1021.6 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC17 mi38 minNE 1410.00 miOvercast57°F51°F82%1022 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N5N3CalmNW8N10N9N7NE7NE4N6N7N8N6NE6NE5N7N8NE7NE9NE7NE5NE8NE6
1 day agoW4CalmCalmSE5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW6SW7SW8SW7SW5NW11N12NE7N10--NW11
2 days agoNE6NE4NE5NE6N6NE6CalmNE4N7N3NE4NE5N4N4NE5NE3CalmNE4NE6NE5NE6E5E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Turnbridge Landing, Salt Water Creek, New River, South Carolina
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Turnbridge Landing
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Wed -- 01:56 AM EST     6.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     1.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:26 PM EST     7.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:58 PM EST     1.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.66.36.66.14.83.42.11.61.82.63.74.85.96.77.17.16.24.83.221.61.92.73.7

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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Savannah River Entrance
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Wed -- 12:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:49 AM EST     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:23 AM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:19 PM EST     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:57 PM EST     1.03 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.1-0.6-1.2-1.7-1.9-1.6-0.9-0.10.71.21.10.70.1-0.4-1.1-1.8-2.2-2.1-1.6-0.80.10.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.