Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Talahi Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:24PM Saturday November 18, 2017 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 947 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 ft late.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ300 947 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail today, then a cold front will pass through late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will then return through much of next week, though a gulf low pressure system could impact the area mid to late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Talahi Island, GA
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location: 32.12, -80.99     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 181728
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1228 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

High pressure will prevail today, then a cold front will pass
through late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will
then return through much of next week, though a gulf low
pressure system could impact the area mid to late week.

Near term through tonight
Today: no significant changes were made to the previous
forecast. High pressure will be giving way to an approaching
cold front which will be near the mountains late in the day. Southerly
winds will steadily strengthen through the day and plenty of
sunshine is expected, resulting in unseasonably warm and breezy
conditions. Gusts to around 20 to 25 mph this afternoon are
expected. Highs should reach the mid 70s away from the locally
cooler coastal areas, possibly upper 70s in ga.

Tonight: the cold front will move closer in the evening and
begin to push into the far inland zones in during the early
morning hours. The front continues to look relatively moisture
starved as it approaches the forecast area with a weakening band
of showers expected. In fact, it's hard to justify more than
about a 40 percent chance of rain, and it is likely that some
areas do not receive any measurable rainfall. The front should
be positioned just offshore by sunrise Sunday which means the
bulk of the cold advection will be delayed beyond the tonight
period. This will result in low temperatures only falling into
the mid upper 50s for most areas. Though there could be some low
50s well inland right at sunrise. Winds will remain elevated
through the night and will actually strengthen immediately ahead
of the front with the tightest pressure gradient.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
The pronounced upper shortwave will push the cold front quickly
offshore Sunday morning. Residual showers and cloud cover
expected to be out of the area by noon Sunday. Weak downslope
flow combined with ample sunshine will help to offset the cold
air advection, pushing high temps into the mid 60s.

Expansive dry high pressure will expand over the area Sunday
night, yielding clear skies and light winds. Strong radiational
cooling will result, allowing temps to drop into the mid 30s
inland and upper 30s to lower 40s closer to the coast. We may
need to consider a frost advisory for Sunday night for a few far
inland zones where the winds would be more likely to go calm.

Cool high pressure will linger on Monday, keeping highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. A developing longwave trough over the
eastern united states Monday night into Tuesday will yield warm
air advection and increasing moisture across the area. A weak
coastal trough may develop, supporting isolated showers along
with increasing low clouds.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
The period looks potentially unsettled though there are
substantial differences in the global models. A longwave trough
will anchor over the eastern half of the country with a series
of surface lows possibly shifting up the coast from the gulf.

Given the large model spread, we started by bumping pops into
the 20-30% range late week.

Aviation 17z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions are generally expected to prevail through 18z
Sunday. A cold front will move through the coastal area toward
12z bringing elevated south southwest winds before it and then
west northwest winds after it, with gusts near 20 kt much of
the period, especially after midnight. There will be a very
strong low-level jet around 2k feet as well but given the
favorable mixing profile surface winds should also be rather
gusty and lead to a very low risk of low-level wind shear.

There could be some light showers and or MVFR ifr ceilings from
about 09-12z as the front passes but confidence too low to
mention at this time.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Today: the day will begin with high pressure off the north
carolina outer banks and weak 5-10 knot onshore flow this
morning. As we move into the afternoon, the high will move
further offshore and the pressure gradient will tighten as a
strong cold front begins to approach from the west. The
increased gradient will result in strengthening southerly flow,
topping out in the 15-20 knot range by the late afternoon hours
across the local waters. Seas are expected to be in the 2-4 ft
range through the day.

Tonight: winds will continue to increase and turn a bit more
out of the southwest, such that small craft advisories are going
to be needed for all waters including charleston harbor. The
strongest winds will first impact the charleston county waters
in the evening, but will steadily increase across all zones
through the early morning hours. Gusts to around 30 knots are
expected in the charleston county waters, with a more solid
20-25 knots of flow elsewhere. Seas will increase in response,
becoming 4-6 feet beyond about 10 nm offshore late tonight.

Low-level winds will quickly diminish on Sunday behind the cold
front. We expect the small craft advisory winds to subside by
late Sunday morning. High pressure building from the northwest
will produce an extended period of northeast winds next week.

The gradient is expected to increase mid to late week, with
marginal small craft advisory winds and or seas possible over
portions of the waters Wednesday night through Friday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 7 am est Sunday for amz330.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon est
Sunday for amz352-354-374.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to noon est Sunday
for amz350.

Near term... Rjb
short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Jrl rjb
marine... Bsh jrl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41033 33 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 63°F1014.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 42 mi60 min S 1 73°F 1016 hPa59°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 50 mi55 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 69°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (-1.0)60°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA11 mi49 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds74°F59°F60%1015.2 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA11 mi52 minSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F57°F56%1015.6 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC17 mi55 minSSW 810.00 miClear73°F59°F61%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE5NE4E10E8E7NE3E6CalmE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4S6SW4
1 day agoNW7CalmW8NW6NW4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmNE6NE8NE7NE8
2 days agoNE5NE5N6N5NW6NW5N3N5CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5CalmW4W3NW3NW3NW6NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Turnbridge Landing, Salt Water Creek, South Carolina
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Turnbridge Landing
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Sat -- 02:32 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     8.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EST     7.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sat -- 12:05 AM EST     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:13 AM EST     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:41 PM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:39 PM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.