Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Talahi Island, GA

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Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:10 AM EDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 925 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 kt early, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 925 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. The area will be situated between an inland trough and atlantic high pressure through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area from the west on Wednesday, then stall over or near the region through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Talahi Island, GA
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location: 32.12, -80.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 191404
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1004 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
The area will be situated between an inland trough and atlantic
high pressure through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the
area from the west on Wednesday, then stall over or near the
region through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Today: no significant changes were made with the latest update.

Satellite imagery indicates plenty of cloud cover, mainly of
the mid high variety and mostly across sc near a mid-level
shortwave. Otherwise, mid- level ridging is expected to
strengthen a bit during the day from the southeast and low-
level convergence will be limited given the sluggish sea breeze.

Similar to the past few days we think the best rain chances
will be inland this afternoon closer to the deeper moisture and
some weak shortwave energy. Kept rain chances no higher than 40
percent through the afternoon, highest in ga, but higher pops
may eventually be needed as we see how mesoscale features play
out, including any differential heating boundaries. Highs should
reach the lower 90s inland with heat indices peaking near 100
degrees most locales.

The 12z modified chs sounding indicates similar conditions to
the last few days so we don't anticipate a significant risk for
severe thunderstorms, although plentiful moisture could lead to
heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
Tonight: convection will gradually diminish through midnight
with dry conditions expected to prevail during the early morning
hours Monday. Debris cloudiness will thin with time, but it may
take a good portion of the night before significant clearing
occurs. Lows will range from the lower 70s well inland to the
upper 70s near 80 at the coast, but locally cooler conditions
could occur where pockets of rain-cooled air develop.

Monday: in the morning the mid-levels will consist of broad high
pressure in the atlantic, with its periphery stretching into our
area. This high will connect to a ridge that will stretch to our
north. Meanwhile, a trough will be over the plains states. As the
day progresses the ridge will move eastward and get absorbed into
the overall synoptic flow. Meanwhile, the broad high in the atlantic
will try to strengthen, with it's periphery reaching more into our
area. This will help to delay the arrival of the eastward moving
trough, which will stretch from the great lakes region into the deep
south by the nighttime period. At the surface, low pressure over or
near mo in the morning will move to the great lakes region by the
overnight hours. This low will pull a warm front (already to our
north) with it and slowly drag a cold front (far to our west)
towards us. Meanwhile a trough is just inland of our area.

Additionally, high pressure will be hovering over bermuda. A
moisture gradient sets up across our area. Pwats are forecasted to
be above 2" across our northernmost counties. On the flip side,
pwats could drop as low as 1.5" across our southernmost counties.

The resulting pops generally reflect this, being the highest across
the charleston tri-county area and tapering as one heads south. It's
possible their may be enough dry air to the south (especially in the
mid-levels) to create a rainfree day. Instability is not very
impressive for august. The best instability is across the charleston
tri-county area where showalter values are minus 2 and blcapes
struggle to exceed 1,000 j kg. Even dcapes there are barely a few
hundred and shear is lacking. Hence, the wind threat is low. Even
the heavy rainfall threat could be decreasing as the area of deep
moisture is small and mid-level winds should be strong enough to
move the storms along, hence limiting the flood potential. With less
convection and possibly more sun, highs could be a few degrees above
normal.

Tuesday: in the morning the mid-levels will consist of a weak ridge
just off the east coast, getting absorbed into the synoptic flow.

Broad high pressure will be off the southeast coast while a trough
stretches from the great lakes region into the deep south. As the
day progresses the high will get pushed away by the eastward moving
trough, which is forecasted to stretch from the great lakes region
down into the southeast overnight. At the surface, low pressure over
the great lakes region in the morning will quickly move into canada
as the day progresses. The low will drag with it a cold front, which
is forecasted to be just west of our area during the overnight
hours. Also, in front of the front will be a weak surface trough.

Moisture is forecasted to increase just ahead of the front. A small
swath possibly up to 2.25" may move through our area overnight. This
is above normal for chs for this time of year. Though, instability
is lacking. GFS blcapes struggle to reach 1,000 j kg during the
daylight hours, inching upwards in the evening. Though, dcapes inch
upwards as well, which is worth watching for wind potential. The
heavy rainfall potential will remain limited due to higher winds
aloft helping to move along any storms that do develop. For now,
we're only going with slight chance to chance pops during the day.

Pops go up overnight as the front approaches. Temperatures are
expected to be a few degrees above normal.

Wednesday: in the morning the mid-levels will consist of a trough
stretching from the great lakes region down into the southeast. This
trough is expected to remain in place into the night and amplify. At
the surface, a cold front will be just west of our area in the
morning. It will slowly move eastward during the day, and become
located over or just off our coast by the overnight. The highest
pops follow the front and it's exact location will determine how
much or little convection we get. Expect more changes as this gets
narrowed down. The same with temperatures.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
Models show a long wave trough over the eastern half of the country
Wednesday night. This trough will gradually shift eastward and then
lift to the north into Friday, followed by zonal flow on Saturday.

At the surface, a front is forecasted to stall over or just offshore
of our area during this time period. This will lead to above normal
pops and near or maybe even below normal temperatures. But if the
front positions itself further offshore, then large changes in the
forecast would be needed.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
Guidance is coming into better agreement on the development of
showers tstms this afternoon and evening. TSTM impacts look to
be the greatest at ksav where both the rap and h3r show a modest
cluster of tstms moving through the terminal in the 23-01z time
frame. Will carry prevailing tstms during this time, but limit
conditions to MVFR for now in a tempo group. For kchs, guidance
keeps the bulk of the heaviest activity just south of the
terminal early-mid evening, but will be close enough to cause a
concern. Will carry a tempo group during this time with a
mention of tsra 01-03z to trend. Adjustments will be needed
later today as trends become more apparent.

Extended aviation outlook: small probabilities of brief flight
restrictions Monday and Tuesday due to convection. Higher
probabilities of brief flight restrictions due to convection
associated with a front Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
Through tonight: typical late-summer southerly wind regime will
hold in place. Speeds will average 15 kt or less today then
increase to 15-20 kt overnight as a noctural surge develops.

Seas will average 2-3 ft, although a bit higher off the northern
charleston county coast.

Monday through Thursday: the coastal waters will be situated
between an inland trough and atlantic high pressure through
Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area from the west on
Wednesday, then stall over or near the region through the end of
the week. This will lead to mainly southwest winds through
Wednesday, followed by changing wind directions on Thursday. The
highest winds are expected during the first half of Tuesday
night due to an elevated pressure gradient from the approaching
front. Wind gusts at this time should peak around 20 kt. Though,
a few gusts could briefly approach 25 kt across the easternmost
portion of the charleston waters and the offshore ga waters
beyond 30 nm. No marine headlines are expected. Seas will
generally be in the 2-4 ft range this week. The exception will
be Tuesday night when some 5 footers are possible in the areas
where the wind gusts will be the highest.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rjb
short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 8 81°F 83°F1017.8 hPa
41033 33 mi62 min W 12 G 18 82°F 84°F1016.9 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 42 mi85 min SW 1.9 81°F 1017 hPa76°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 50 mi80 min SW 9.7 G 12 82°F 82°F2 ft1017.4 hPa (+1.3)75°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA11 mi14 minWSW 510.00 miFair82°F75°F81%1016.8 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA11 mi17 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1017.4 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC17 mi20 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW5CalmW3S9SE9S9SE10S11--S8SW6
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2 days agoW4W5CalmCalmS7CalmSE7SE7S7SE7S7S6S6SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmW3W5

Tide / Current Tables for Turnbridge Landing, Salt Water Creek, South Carolina
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Turnbridge Landing
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Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:30 PM EDT     7.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.44.866.876.34.93.31.8111.72.94.35.86.97.67.56.75.33.72.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sun -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EDT     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:09 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.510.2-0.8-1.5-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.40.81.61.91.81.61-0-1-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.3-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.