Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Wentworth, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday April 18, 2019 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 145 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight edt tonight through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
This afternoon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas building to 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 9 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..W winds 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 145 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail today. A strong cold front will sweep through the region Friday, then a trough of low pressure will linger through Saturday. High pressure will build into the area late this weekend and will prevail into the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Wentworth, GA
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location: 32.17, -81.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 181743
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
143 pm edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail today. A strong cold front will
sweep through the region Friday, then a trough of low pressure
will linger through Saturday. High pressure will build into the
area late this weekend and will prevail into the middle of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Early Thursday afternoon: per recent radar trends, can't
completely rule out a sprinkle or two across SE ga, but
radar returns primarily represent shallow cumulus development
as atlantic moisture pushes onshore this afternoon. Otherwise,
ongoing forecasts remain on track.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday
Tonight: warm air advection isentropic assent will gradually
build through the night as low-level jetting intensifies ahead
of a powerful h5 low that will steadily close off across
tennessee valley. Guidance shows the strongest pre-frontal
moisture transport occurring across the western wall of the
gulf stream and extending north into the northeast south
carolina coast through daybreak, only brushing portions of
charleston and berkeley counties. This suggests the bulk of any
convection that develops over the waters after midnight will be
directed more towards myrtle beach and the upper south carolina
coast, which matches trends noted in a large majority of the
href members. Activity will be close enough to justify pops
across the south carolina coastal corridor prior to sunrise
Friday. Pops will range from 40% across upper charleston county
to 30% across most of the charleston metro area with 20% pops as
far west as walterboro and parts of the savannah metro area. A
well defined squall line will likely be approaching the
reidsville-millen corridor by 19 12z bringing a risk for severe
tstms with damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. Warm and breezy
conditions will occur overnight with conditions likely becoming
windy across the coastal counties by sunrise. Lows will range
from the upper 60s inland to around 70 at the coast.

Friday: an active day of weather is becoming more likely during the
early afternoon into early evening hours across the southeast united
states. The storm prediction center has now included the entire
southeast south carolina and southeast georgia area in a "enhanced
risk" of severe weather.

A strong low pressure system will track over the ohio river valley
with a southward extending cold front that sweeps from west to east
across the southeast united states. Aloft, a high amplitude trough
of low pressure will help drive the cold front quickly towards the
southeast coast, most likely sometime between mid to late Friday
afternoon. Timing of the front, along with showers thunderstorms
shifting onshore late morning will be a factor to how much
instability develops across the area ahead of the front Friday
afternoon. Latest guidance suggests much of the onshore activity
during late morning hours potentially shifting north of the area by
early afternoon, thus allowing SBCAPE to reach 1500-2000 j kg as
pwats approach 1.75 inches and sfc dewpts remain in the mid upper
60s. This amount of instability moisture combined with strong
forcing and shear associated with the arrival of a 60 kt low-lvl
jet, suggests widespread thunderstorms across the area, some being
strong and or severe Friday afternoon into early Friday evening,
particularly along and east of the i-95 corridor where sfc temps
peak near 80 degrees before fropa.

Latest model soundings along with 850mb-500mb lvl crossover winds
suggest mainly unidirectional wind fields during the most favorable
time of convection, meaning the greatest threat with thunderstorms
being damaging wind gusts within bowing segments. However, there is
still some directional shear component as the cold front sweeps
through the region, suggesting the potential for isolated tornadoes
within a squall line of thunderstorms that quickly advances toward
the coast by early Friday evening. Marginal mid-lvl lapse rates
suggest hail to be small for this event. Once FROPA occurs, the
severe weather threat will come to an end, starting across inland
areas mid late afternoon, then near coastal areas late
afternoon early evening.

Strong wind fields associated with this system will also support
gusty southerly winds across the southeast united states outside of
shower thunderstorm activity. A wind advisory will be possible over
the area, especially near the coast in southeast south carolina.

Strong cold air advection behind the front will likely support gusty
winds at least into the evening. A few showers could persist behind
the departing front Friday night, but the bulk of activity should be
offshore within a few hours of sunset. Lows will be much cooler than
the previous night as high pressure begins to push into the area
late. In general, lows should dip into the lower 50s away from the
coast.

Saturday and Sunday: a large mid upper lvl low will be slow to shift
off the eastern seaboard this weekend, suggesting the potential for
a few showers across the area as some moisture wraps around its
southern periphery. However, the bulk of deep moisture and precip
activity should be offshore Saturday afternoon evening, followed by
a period of drier weather through Sunday as sfc high pressure builds
across the region. Temps will be noticeably cooler over the weekend,
but will modify quickly early next week. In general, high temps
should only reach the mid upper 60s across most areas Saturday
afternoon. Saturday night lows should dip into the mid upper 40s
inland to low mid 50s near the coast. On Sunday, temps will rebound
into the mid 70s under sunny skies.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Dry sfc high pressure will prevail across the region Sunday night
through the middle of next week with temps warming each day as a
mid upper lvl ridge axis shifts over the southeast united states. In
general, high temps in the the low 80s Monday will warm into the low
80s Tuesday, then low mid 80s Wednesday. Overnight lows should range
in the low mid 50s away from the coast Sunday night, then mid upper
50s inland to lower 60s near the coast Monday night, followed by
low mid 60s Tuesday night.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
18z tafs maintainVFR conditions, although the probability
for MVFR ceilings will increase beginning later tonight,
especially after 6z. S SE winds will gust to around 20 kt this
afternoon, then winds will slacken just a bit after dark before
strengthening again after 6z. Then, gusts in to the 30-35 knots
range should become common after 12-14z Friday. Also of note,
coverage of showers thunderstorms late tonight into Friday
morning remains uncertain but should remain focused in the kchs
vicinity. For now, limited mention to vcsh at kchs. Finally,
timing the arrival of strong severe thunderstorms remains
somewhat uncertain. Opted to limit mention to vcts at ksav to
close out the 18z TAF period, with no mention of thunder at
kchs, but changes can be expected within subsequent taf
packages.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions are expected at
both terminals Friday pm with showers thunderstorms shifting
over the terminals, potentially from activity shifting onshore
early at the chs terminal, followed by strong
showers thunderstorms with a passing cold front Friday afternoon
into the evening at both chs and sav terminals. Gusty south
winds are also likely Friday and Friday night outside of showers
and thunderstorms. Flight restrictions could persist into early
Saturday before improving toVFR by Saturday afternoon.VFR
conditions should then prevail under high pressure Sunday and
Monday.

Marine
Early Thursday afternoon: ongoing forecasts of S SE winds 10-15
kt and seas building to 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm
remain on track.

Tonight: conditions will deteriorate over the coastal waters
tonight as low-level jetting takes hold ahead of a strong storm
system to the west. South winds are expected to increase to
20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt across nearshore waters with 25-30
kt with gusts to 35 kt over the georgia offshore waters. Small
craft advisories remain in force for all nearshore legs,
including charleston harbor. A gale warning has been posted for
the georgia offshore legs where frequent gusts of 35 kt are
expected after 08z. Seas will build overnight, reaching 4-7 ft
nearshore and 6-8 ft offshore by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Monday: conditions will continue to deteriorate
Friday morning into the afternoon as a strong pressure gradient and
associated 60 kt low-lvl jet spreads across the waters in advance of
a cold front shifting offshore Friday afternoon into early Friday
evening. At least small craft advisory level conditions will occur
for all coastal waters Friday, followed by a period of gale force
wind gusts late Friday morning into Friday evening. A gale warning
is now in effect for offshore georgia waters until 04z Saturday. All
remaining waters, including the chs harbor continue to be under a
gale watch Friday into early Friday night. Seas should also build up
to 5-8 ft across ga nearshore waters and 9-12 ft across offshore
georgia waters and beyond 10 nm from the coast in nearshore sc
waters.

Thunderstorms could be strong and or severe over coastal waters
Friday afternoon into early Friday night along near the passing cold
front. Damaging winds and isolated waterspouts will be the primary
threat. Conditions should then improve Saturday, but small craft
advisories will likely persist behind the departing front as cooler
high pressure builds over the waters. By daybreak Sunday, high
pressure should become centered along the southeast coast, favoring
winds and seas that remain below small craft advisory level
conditions through Monday.

Surf zone hazards: strong winds could produce high surf and an
elevated risk for rip currents Friday. A high surf advisory may
be needed for breakers of 5 ft or greater.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated tides are expected for the evening high tide cycle.

Levels in the charleston harbor could approach or slightly
exceed 7.0 ft mllw. A coastal flood advisory could be needed
for charleston county this evening. Levels are not expected to
reach advisory criteria farther south, including fort pulaski.

Confidence is decreasing that shallow coastal flooding will
occur with the evening high tide Friday as winds are expected to
shift more westerly by then. However, there is still a low-end
risk, especially with winds are slow to shift than expected.

Blow-out tides are possible with Saturday morning's low tide.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
amz330-350-352-354.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Friday
for amz330-350-352-354.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am edt Friday
for amz374.

Gale warning from 4 am Friday to midnight edt Friday night for
amz374.

Near term... Spr
short term...

long term...

aviation... Spr
marine... Spr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 15 mi35 min SSE 7 G 12 75°F 69°F1016.9 hPa
41033 39 mi117 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 69°F1018.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 45 mi80 min SE 4.1 79°F 1018 hPa64°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 53 mi65 min S 12 80°F 1016 hPa (-1.0)64°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA4 mi72 minSE 1610.00 miOvercast81°F63°F54%1016.2 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA10 mi69 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F64°F62%1016.2 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC23 mi75 minE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F64°F69%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from SAV (wind in knots)
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1 day ago5SE8SE6SE8SE6SE6SE4S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS663E5SE8S9
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NW9NW7NW4W4W5CalmCalmW3CalmN5CalmN4NE9NE6NE10E6NE7SE8E35

Tide / Current Tables for Little Back River, Hwy. 17, Back River., Savannah River, South Carolina
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Little Back River
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:39 AM EDT     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EDT     8.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     9.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.33.11-0.6-0.90.52.95.57.58.48.37.45.73.61.6-0.2-0.9-0.124.77.18.598.6

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     -3.07 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT     -3.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.1-2.8-1.9-0.60.81.721.610-1.1-2.3-3-3-2.3-1.10.31.52.121.40.5-0.6-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.