Friday, January18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Trinidad, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:47PM Friday January 18, 2019 4:00 PM CST (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 4:42AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trinidad, TX
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location: 32.2, -96.11     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 182039
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
239 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019

Short term
Tonight through Saturday
surface analysis this afternoon reveals a surface low over the
oklahoma panhandle. A warm front extends east from this surface
low into the central plains, with a cold front extending back to
the northwest into the front range of colorado. This low will
track east during the next 24 hours, driving a strong arctic cold
front through north and central texas. The passage of this cold
front will bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms, strong non-
convective winds, and cold temperatures.

The cold front will enter the northwestern portion of our county
warning area around 10:00 pm cst this evening; reaching the
dallas fort worth metropolitan area by midnight, and waco-
killeen-temple by 2-3 am. The cold front will be marked by strong
winds out of the northwest and rapidly falling temperatures. Given
that sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear likely, a wind advisory
has been issued for our entire county warning area, valid through
6:00 pm cst Saturday.

Ahead of the cold front, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest chance for
thunderstorms will be in the far eastern part of our forecast
area where the strongest instability will be present. Nam
guidance is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 1,000 j kg
along with 0-6 km bulk shear values of over 50 knots. SPC has
drawn a marginal risk for our eastern two tiers of counties, and
this appears very reasonable based on forecast severe weather
parameters. The primary severe weather hazard will be damaging
winds in the southeastern counties. The severe threat will be less
in our northeastern counties where SBCAPE will be more limited,
but steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE of more than 1,000 j kg
suggests a few marginally severe elevated thunderstorms may be
possible. Back to the west, coverage and intensity of convection
should be less, with mainly rain showers forecast (though a few
rumbles of thunder as far west as i-35 35w cannot be totally ruled
out). The threat for thunder should end by sunrise as the arctic
air filters into our region.

Most precipitation should come to an end as we head into the
daylight hours on Saturday. Some very light deformation area
precipitation on the back side of the surface low may linger near
the red river into the day however. Temperatures may be just cold
enough to support a change to very light snow across our
northernmost tier of counties (montague, cooke, grayson, fannin,
and lamar), but no accumulation is forecast. All precipitation
should end by early afternoon, with winds slackening towards
sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes across the southern


Long term
Saturday night through Friday
winds will continue to diminish through late Saturday night as
high pressure builds through the central part of the u.S. Allowing
the gradient to relax across north texas. Low level cold advection
will continue through late evening, then as winds diminish and
skies remain clear, temperatures will continue to fall into the
low to mid 20s areawide. If winds can manage to go completely calm
in some outlying areas, some upper teens would not be out of the
question. The real cold air will be short lived though as a
highly amplified progressive upper pattern remains in place.

By Monday, the center of the surface ridge will slide eastward
with mid level ridging overhead and another strong shortwave
digging into the southwest u.S. Strong height falls over the
western u.S. And surface pressure falls in the lee of the rockies
will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across north texas by
Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph
with temperatures climbing into the 60s. Upstream amplification of
the ridging approaching the west coast will allow our upper trough
over the southwest u.S. To dig way south into mexico on Tuesday.

Southerly flow and a quick moisture return will lead to increased
cloud cover early on Tuesday followed by an increase in rain
chances Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front. This front on
Tuesday will have some fairly cold air behind it as well and
should race through the area Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it
looks like mainly rain showers along the front and mainly east of
i-35 into Tuesday evening.

The remainder of the week will remain cool with highs in the 40s
on Wednesday and lower 50s on Thursday. Another weak front will
slide through the region Thursday night reinforcing the cool air
in place.


Aviation issued 1218 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019
1800z tafs
concerns -- lingering MVFR stratus. Late evening overnight fropa.

Crosswinds ahead of fropa. Shra tsra potential.

First... Some lingering MVFR and occassionally ifr stratus
continues to linger across north and central texas. Metroplex taf
sites have generally improved toVFR... Except for gky which
continues to show ifr. A very sharp gradient in CIGS can be found
along i-20... Thus prevailedVFR with tempo ifr (it seems to be a
more or less an "all or nothing" situation) through 18 2000z. Act
remains socked in this afternoon... But slow improvement is
expected there as well.

Regarding the overnight fropa... A strong cold front will approach
the d10 tracon area a little after midnight local time tonight.

Ahead of this front... Winds will veer out of the west and will
increase as the pressure gradient across the region tightens.

Sustained winds of 15-20 kt with gusts in excess of 25 kt may lead
to some crosswind concerns on the 17 35 and 18 36 runways at dfw
this evening prior to the fropa. Following fropa... Winds will veer
sharply out of the NW and increase further with gusts in excess of
35 kt possible. Luckily... The orientation of these winds from
about 340 degrees should minimize the crosswind concerns after the
fropa. In terms of precipitation potential... High resolution model
guidance is not particularly aggressive with coverage. It may even
be a stretch to include vcsh at this point... But it's not entirely
out of the question that a few showers and perhaps even an
isolated lightning strike will be observed somewhere in the d10
area in the few hours ahead of the fropa. Finally... CIGS should
drop to MVFR immediately ahead of the FROPA and continue for
several afters after it.

While elevated winds will continue through the day Saturday... Cigs
should gradually improve throughout the day and return toVFR by
late afternoon.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 36 42 27 50 39 30 20 0 0 0
waco 39 46 27 52 36 5 0 0 0 0
paris 34 38 23 45 33 50 30 0 0 0
denton 34 41 25 50 39 30 30 0 0 0
mckinney 35 40 25 47 37 40 30 0 0 0
dallas 36 42 28 50 39 30 20 0 0 0
terrell 38 42 25 47 36 30 5 0 0 0
corsicana 39 43 27 47 36 10 0 0 0 0
temple 40 48 28 53 37 5 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 35 43 25 54 39 20 20 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst Saturday for

37 91

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corsicana, Campbell Field-Corsicana Municipal Airport, TX19 mi68 minS 1110.00 miOvercast64°F60°F87%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from CRS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW6NW5W4NW5CalmN3CalmNE4NE4CalmCalmSE4SE6E4SE7SE6SE7S11S13S10S10S12
1 day agoS12S12
2 days agoS6S7S6S6S4S6S5S4S6SE5SE6S7S6S9S8S7S8S9S14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.