Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 12:12 PM   Moonset 1:20 AM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 337 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Today - SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds, becoming S 3 ft at 7 seconds. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 337 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A cold front will move through late today, followed by high pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 150836 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 436 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through late today, followed by high pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early Morning: A southwest flow will maintain a fair amount of low- lvl moisture early, supporting a marginally unstable environment capable of producing a few showers and/or thunderstorms across far inland zones of southeast South Carolina. Just upstream ongoing convection has persisted through the night across parts of the Midlands and north of Lake Moultrie. This activity is expected to drift north-northeast with time, likely remaining out of the area, but given the lingering environment have maintained 15-20 POPs across the Tri-County Area a few hours after daybreak.

Today: Southwest flow this morning will gradually turn more westerly along the base of a mid-upper lvl trough slowly advancing toward the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. The setup will tend to favor a bit of subsidence within a downslope wind by late morning, keeping most if not all areas dry into mid afternoon while stronger sfc heating promotes low-lvl mixing into drier air aloft. Afternoon highs will become warmer than the previous day, peaking in the mid- upper 80s across most areas away from the beaches. For much of the day, forcing will be lacking and moisture limited well ahead of a weak front approaching from the northwest. However, there should be an uptick in shower/thunderstorm chances heading into late afternoon as weak h5 shortwave energy along the leading edge of the mid-upper trough advances across the local area and encounters an environment characterized by SBCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, mid-lvl-lapse rates around 7 C/km and potentially a fair amount of DCAPE at a time when wind fields support 0-6km bulk shear around 35-40 kt. A few thunderstorms could become strong and/or severe in this setup, with the best chances of occurrence across the Tri-County Area late afternoon into early evening when larger scale forcing interacts with a somewhat pinned seabreeze circulation near the South Carolina coast.

Tonight: Showers and/or thunderstorms will likely weaken considerably and/or shift offshore with a weak sfc front shortly after sunset, ending precip across the entire area for the rest of the night. Dry high pressure will then settle in for the night with temps dipping into the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70 near the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The local forecast area will be positioned along the southern periphery of a mid level trough situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
A nice day is expected on Thursday, owing to the NW flow aloft and high pressure briefly building in at the surface. High temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s, with mostly clear skies and dry conditions forecast. Overnight lows Thursday will be in the mid 60s inland with 70 along the beaches.

The flow aloft will briefly transition to a zonal flow on Friday, with surface high pressure retreating out into the Atlantic waters.
To the west a mid level trough and associated surface cold front will begin trekking towards the Deep South. Ahead of the approaching cold front isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the far inland zones late Friday. Otherwise, another rain-free forecast with high temperatures again reaching into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be rather mild, given the increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front. Low temperatures are forecast to only dip into the mid 60s inland with low 70s along the coastline.

Saturday is expected to be another active weather day as a low pressure system impacts the forecast area. A warm front is forecast to lift northward early, with a cold front pushing through later.
PWATs are forecast to reach 1.5+ inches Saturday afternoon.
Additionally, both the GFS/ECMWF show a decent amount of instability across the region (around 1000 J/kg of CAPE). Given the favorable environment, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Showers and thunderstorms as well as thick cloud cover will likely hinder high temperatures on Saturday, only reaching into the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The aforementioned mid level trough will slip offshore Saturday night/Sunday morning, with broad ridging building in behind it. High pressure will also build in at the surface and dominate through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Apart from Sunday afternoon which could see a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms due to lingering dynamics from the departing trough, rain chances through early next week remain minimal as subsidence builds into the region. Under plentiful sun, ridging aloft, and surface high pressure temperatures each day will reach into the upper 80s with some locations across southeastern GA possibly touching 90.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 09-10Z Wednesday, but low stratus should develop across the terminals for a few hours thereafter, resulting in MVFR cigs between 10-13Z at CHS/JZI and 09-13Z at SAV. A brief period of IFR cigs can not be ruled out during this same time frame, but confidence remains too low to include in the latest TAF issuance. VFR conditions are expected to return at all terminals by late morning Wednesday, but gusty west-southwest winds around 20 kt are anticipated during much of the afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to all terminals on Saturday as a low pressure system impacts the region.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across Charleston County waters early this morning, mainly due to lingering 6 ft seas beyond 15 NM from the coast. Sea conditions should improve by mid morning, resulting in conditions that remain below advisory levels.

A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient will persist across local waters today ahead of a weak cold front advancing toward the coast late day and early night. The pattern supports southwest winds generally up to 15-20 kt by late morning and through afternoon hours, before stronger wind fields shift to the north- northeast and the pressure gradient weakens post fropa. Cold air advection behind the front will be somewhat marginal, suggesting marine conditions to remain below advisory levels through the night. Seas should generally range between 3-5 ft by late morning, highest across offshore Georgia waters and Charleston County waters. Overnight seas will subside to 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Monday: Conditions through the period are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will briefly build in at the surface on Thursday, with winds generally around 10 knots and seas averaging 2 to 3 ft. A cold front will push through the region on Saturday, shifting winds more to the W and surging slightly to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are expected to build on Saturday as well, increasing to 3 to 4 ft. By Monday winds will shift to the NW, generally around 10 knots with seas diminishing to around 1 to 2 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ350.

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Port Royal Plantation
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Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     5.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:03 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EDT     1.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Royal Plantation, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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