Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 7:19PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:30 PM MST (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 6:56AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 201029
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
329 am mst Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis A storm system moves across the area today with much
cooler temperatures, a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm
mainly northeast of tucson. Cold morning temperatures are possible
Tuesday morning for valleys east of tucson. Another weak storm
system brings a chance of showers and cooler temperatures to the
area on Wednesday. Expect a gradual warming trend into the weekend
with temperatures approaching normal.

Discussion Cloudy across the area this morning with showers or
sprinkles approaching from the west. Hrrr is handling the
situation quite well showing an area of light rain showers
passing through tucson later this morning. Hrrr and other guidance
shows the line of showers sprinkles could reach nogales, but
confidence is rather low. The best chance remains mainly north and
east of tucson.

Today: breezy to windy conditions area wide with patchy areas of
blowing dust for portions of cochise county where the strongest
winds should occur. Cloud cover may act to keep mixing down,
however as the frontal bndry moves through any shower activity
should help with mechanical mixing of stronger gusts to the
surface. The best shower and or thunderstorm activity will occur
mainly in eastern pinal, graham and greenlee counties but can't
rule out some activity for eastern pima county this morning. Much
cooler with high temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees below
normal. Later this morning into early afternoon will be the best
chance for snow showers in the white mountains. A dusting to a
slushy inch or two will be possible at the highest peaks above
8500 feet.

Monday night into Tuesday morning: with a colder air mass over the
area record or near record low temperatures are possible,
especially across cochise county with the coldest valleys
potentially seeing lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Confidence remains low to moderate, but still think the freeze
watch looks good. No changes were made at this time as later
shifts will need to determine if to upgrade to a warning. The best
chance for freezing or near freezing temperatures would be the
sulphur springs valley and portions of NE santa cruz county.

Tuesday: zonal flow with the area between two weather systems.

Gusty afternoon winds will still be around with high temperatures
6 to 12 degrees warmer than Monday.

Wednesday: system #2 will bring another round of gusty winds, well
below normal temperatures and a slight chance of showers and a
few thunderstorms. Confidence remains moderate at this time as
guidance continues to waffle, but ensemble support still is
sufficient for mention of shower activity. Confidence is high for
gusty winds and cooler temperatures.

Thursday thru Sunday: dry with gusty afternoon winds under
southwest flow aloft with upper level trofiness remaining over the
west coast. Daytime temperatures will be warming but remaining
below normal. Daytime temperatures will gradually climb to around
90s degrees for many lower desert valleys.

Aviation Valid through 21 12z.

Skies generally sct-bkn mainly 4-8k ft bkn AOA 15k ft agl through
this afternoon then skies clearing this evening. Isolated -shra -
tsra ktus eastward through 21 00z. Surface winds southerly 5-10kts
then increasing and becoming wly at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35
kts late this morning into this evening. Strongest winds will be
east of ktus including kdug. Wind easing to less than 10 kts aft
21 03z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather An abnormally strong and cool weather system will
move through the region today. This will result in continued breezy
to windy conditions with the strongest winds east of tucson.

However, increased moisture including a slight chance of a shower
and thunderstorm (mainly tucson eastward) and much cooler
temperatures, rh levels will be above critical levels. The pressure
gradient will be tight on Tuesday ahead of another system moving in
for Wednesday. Thus, windy conditions continue Tuesday with local
critical wind and rh thresholds being met for brief periods Tuesday
afternoon.

As the next system moves in on Wednesday, the winds will remain
elevated, however the rh values will once again increase above
critical levels. Beyond that an upper low trough will remain near
the west coast which will keep temperatures below normal but the
atmosphere will dry out with lower rh values and more typical
afternoon breezes each day into next weekend.

Climate Record or near record low temperatures are in the
forecast Tuesday morning, mainly across cochise county.

Date: may 21
location fcst rcd year
bisbee-douglas airport 37 37 1974
sierra vista 40 39 1905
tombstone 35 40 1962
willcox 32 28 1911

Twc watches warnings advisories
Freeze watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
azz507>509.

Visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi45 minW 19 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy70°F30°F23%1011.2 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi37 minWSW 18 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy67°F32°F27%1007.3 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi34 minW 18 G 2610.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy67°F31°F27%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS21
G29
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------------------W9SW14
G18
NW7W9W11
G21
SW16W20
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1 day ago--NW5NW11
G15
W8W10W6------------------SE5CalmE4CalmS4S12
G18
SW12
G20
SW22
G25
SW16
G27
2 days agoW10W10W12
G22
SW12
G19
W13
G16
W7------------------E5E5CalmCalm--NW3N6----

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.