Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 5:43PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 10:03 AM MST (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:36PMMoonset 5:26AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 231641
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
940 am mst Tue oct 23 2018

Synopsis Numerous showers and thunderstorms today with greatest
coverage from tucson eastward. Some thunderstorms may produce large
hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms ending this
evening with dry conditions late tonight. There is a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday east of tucson followed by
dry conditions area wide Wednesday night into next Monday.

Discussion Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across cochise county northward into southern graham greenlee
counties at this time. Meanwhile, isolated showers tstms were also
occurring from the tucson metro area northward into southeast pinal
county. A storm spotter reported hail to one half inch diameter near
ryan airfield (southwest tucson) around 910 am mst. Cell movements
were nely 15-20 kts.

A mid upper trough axis extended from western nevada southward into
southern california this morning. Meanwhile, the storm prediction
center mesoscale analysis valid 16z depicted an axis of 1000 j kg
mlcape extended from near nogales northward to just west of tucson.

A broad area of 500-1000 j kg encompassed much of southeast arizona.

23 12z ktwc sounding total precip water value of 1.07 inches was
nearly identical to 24 hours ago. However, this sounding was
markedly more unstable as per various parameters (e.G. MLCAPE of
1007 j kg) versus 24 hours ago.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur across much of
southeast arizona into this evening. The exception is across western
pima county where precip-free conditions will prevail. As per the
1107 am cdt 907 am mst storm prediction center day 1 convective
outlook, the primary threats the rest of today are gusty winds and
marginally severe hail. A weakening shear environment will occur as
the mid upper trough approaches from the west. There is also a
localized flash flood threat as per the latest NWS weather
prediction center mesoscale precipitation discussion.

Several hrrr solutions as well as the 23 12z univ of az wrf-nam
depict showers tstms to decrease in coverage intensity early this
evening as the bulk of precip is progged to mostly end around 24 06z
or shortly thereafter. This timing is coincident with the mid upper
trough axis depicted to move via various models to move into
southwest new mexico by daybreak Wednesday. High temps today are
forecast to be mainly within a couple of degrees of normal.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

Aviation Valid through 24 18z.

Numerous -tsra -shra into early this evening. Some +tsra may occur
at times with hail and gusts approaching 50 kts. Scattered -tsra
and -shra mainly east of ktus early this evening with most precip
ending by daybreak Wednesday. Isolated -tsra -shra mainly near white
mountains northeast of ksad toward end of period.

Otherwise, cloud decks mostly 4k-8k ft agl becoming 6k-10k ft agl
around 24 06z and continuing into Wednesday morning. Surface wind
mainly sely sly 5-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts apart from
thunderstorm gusts. Surface wind after 24 06z variable in direction
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather A slow moving weather system will produce showers
and thunderstorms again today. Some storms will be capable of
producing localized heavy rainfall, large hail and wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph. Storm coverage will extend mainly from central pima
county toward the east. By Wednesday, slight chances for rainfall
will be limited to fire zones 152 and 153. Dry conditions then occur
Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Outside of strong convective
gusts today, 20-ft winds will remain below 15 mph through the
forecast period.

Prev discussion 229 am mst It should end up being an
interesting day with the way things are setting up. The upper low
that has basically been over southern california the last few days
has set the stage by generating a very moist and unstable air mass
over the region. Now this feature is on the move and will slowly
move across arizona later today into tonight and will provide the
dynamics to trigger thunderstorms today.

Depending on the minor (but important) details of the forcing there
could be multiple rounds of convection and that is suggested in the
various cam (convective allowing model) solutions. Each of the cam
models has their own take on the details, however the main idea is
the same with plenty of thunderstorm activity today from fairly
early in the day into the evening. With the available instability,
wind shear and forcing, some of the thunderstorms are expected to be
severe, meaning producing large hail and or damaging winds. The
primary area of concern for the stronger storms is east of a sasabe
to casa grande line all the way into western new mexico. For visual
reference see the day 1 convective outlook from spc. Like Monday,
there could also be local flash flooding issues especially if heavy
rains fall over already very wet areas. It should be a dynamic day,
one where you will need to stay tuned to the latest forecasts,
statements and warnings.

This evening the focus of the convection will be forced to the
eastern part of the forecast area as the upper trough moves east and
the threat of strong storms will be over for arizona before
midnight. Then we begin the slow process of drying out and
stabilizing the atmosphere. By Wednesday afternoon things should
have settled down enough to limit activity to just a few isolated
rain showers over the white mountains and near the new mexico border
area.

Thursday into the weekend more significant drying takes hold with nw
flow aloft ahead of an upper level ridge that will eventually build
overhead late in the weekend. So, looking at mostly clear skies
Thursday onward with gradually warming temperatures and afternoon
highs peaking 5-10 degrees warmer than normal by Sunday. There is
some potential for a little unsettled weather early next week but
that is a problem to deal with another day.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Francis
previous discussion... Cerniglia
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi73 minESE 410.00 miFair72°F62°F73%1013.9 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi71 minSE 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F57°F57%1010.3 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi66 minESE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F59°F64%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E6E6SE4N5N6NW8NW7NW6SW4--------------------CalmE6E4E9
1 day agoE17
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2 days agoE19
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G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.