Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 7:15 PM Moonrise 11:21 AM   Moonset 12:52 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 140935 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 235 AM MST Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist this week. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Thursday, with highs warming to several degrees above normal Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Overall, a fairly quiet weather pattern through the upcoming weekend, with just a few minor impacts. There is just enough mid level moisture in place for some afternoon/early evening buildups today through Thursday, especially in the White Mountains.
A weak upper level low currently off the southern California coast will slowly shift east-northeast through Thursday, before shifting east of the region on Friday. This system will interact with the mid level moisture in place on Thursday, resulting in a slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms in the White Mountains. That is, storms which produce erratic/gusty winds and lightning and little to no rainfall. This weak low will also tighten the gradient just enough to result in some elevated wind speeds and near critical fire weather conditions as it moves across the area on Wednesday and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds will be southwest on Wednesday as this system approaches and then west-northwest on Thursday as the system lifts northeast of the area, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph over Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties.

Otherwise, a shortwave ridge of high pressure will build in across the desert southwest over the upcoming weekend behind the system.
This will lead to dry conditions returning areawide and warmer temperatures. High temperatures will top out 3-5 degrees above normal on Friday, warming to 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. The current forecast has 99 degrees for Tucson on both Saturday and Sunday. However, NBM probabilities of 100 degrees for Tucson are 29% for Saturday and 36% on Sunday. It will be real close to that century mark for a couple of hours each afternoon this weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 15/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and some higher cirrus level clouds at times thru the forecast period. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 14/18Z and again aft 15/04Z. SFC wind at 10-15 kts and gusts to 18-25 kts between 14/18Z and 15/04Z, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal through Thursday. Highs then warm to 3-5 degrees above normal Friday and 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens the next 7 days, with values in the mountains generally between 10- 20 percent. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal wind trends this week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph. Southwest winds are expected on Wednesday and west-northwest winds on Thursday. There will be just enough mid level moisture in place through Thursday for a few buildups during the afternoon and early evening hours in the White Mountains, especially Thursday. Any storms that do develop will be dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no measurable rainfall.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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