Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:57 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1237 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers.Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds, becoming E 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 foot at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Mon night - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 1237 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend. High pressure returns to our region next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 180231 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1031 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend.
High pressure returns to our region next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
The MCS over Georgia and northern Florida is trending slightly south of due east per latest trends, and also per the Corfidi Vectors. Poor lapse rates, limited MLCAPE, weak Normalized Cape, along with increasing CINH, all point toward any severe weather having come to an end. In fact, with a 3C inversion around 8-9K feet, we are now showing no more than isolated to scattered PoPs within a very moist south-southwest synoptic flow. Although we do need to focus our attention upstream, as convection in the lower Mississippi Valley will be moving into western Georgia by 6 am, as it has plenty of CAPE and shear to work with through the night. What happens with that activity could have implications on how the local weather unfolds Saturday.

There will be the formation of areas of stratus developing, which then builds down, as depicted by the LAMP and to some extent the HRRR. Even so, geostrophic winds look a little too high for any serious fog concerns.

Low temperatures will be well above normal given the elevated dew points and extensive cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Much of this period is expected to be the most active for the entire forecast period through the next work week. Models show an upper level trough over the lower MS River Valley early Saturday, moving eastward toward the forecast area through Sunday. Conditions look the most favorable for showers/thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Peak values of CAPE and bulk shear will be later Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, which is the main time frame that the SPC has our entire region in a SLT Risk for severe storms. Have kept high likely/low end categorical PoPs for much of the area on Saturday and Saturday evening, chance Saturday night, and then likely again Sunday. The threat for any severe storms looks too low to mention for Sunday due to a significant decrease in CAPE, despite the passage of a surface cold front and the presence of the upper level trough. By later Sunday night and Monday, the upper trough axis will move offshore, allowing a cold front to push south of the area. High pressure builds in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday, which will bring slightly cooler and drier conditions.

Temperatures above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday and possibly a tad below normal behind the cold front on Monday.

Heavy Rainfall Potential: Blended models solutions continue to point toward later Saturday afternoon and evening for the most likely window for locally heavy rainfall. The area with the highest chance for heavy rainfall appears to be our coastal counties, especially from the Charleston Tri-county region, southward to the Savannah River. However, there continues to be uncertainty in the exact placement of the heavy rainfall, since localized boundaries produced by convection/thunderstorms will likely dictate where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Thunderstorm induced boundaries could collide with a weak seabreeze close to the coast Saturday afternoon, which is why we are leaning toward higher chances for the heaviest rainfall to be over our coastal counties.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
This period looks to be much quieter, with little/no chances for any significant rainfall and temperatures above normal. Another cold front may impact the area later Thursday and Friday with at least slight chances for showers/thunderstorms. However, the timing of this front and whether or not there will be sufficient deep layer moisture to support precipitation remains uncertain. Temperatures expected to be above normal during this period, especially by Thursday and Friday as a deep layer ridge builds to the south- southwest of the area, keeping our region under low level west- southwest flow.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/SAV: In all likelihood there won't be anything more than scattered showers around through the night, so we have just VCSH and generally VFR. Late tonight and Saturday morning there could be several hours of flight restrictions as stratus develops. Some guidance indicates potential for IFR ceilings.
But went no worse than MVFR between 09Z and 15Z. There is a greater chance for SHRA/TSRA Saturday afternoon, and VCTS is included for now. Some guidance though actually shows the greater probabilities Saturday morning. Figure on refinements in future TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Saturday night through Sunday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected with brief flight restrictions possible, especially later Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sunday night through Wednesday: VFR expected to prevail.

MARINE
The surface pattern will support S o SSW winds between 10 to 15 kts, with wave heights forecast to gradually build to 2-3 ft by late tonight.

No highlights are expected through the period. The waters will remain under the influence of a ridge of high pressure well to the southeast and lower pressure well inland, to the northwest. This will keep southwest winds of 15 knots or less and seas generally 2 to 4 feet through Sunday. A cold front is expected to push through the waters during the day on Sunday. Behind this front, winds will veer to north-northwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet. The increased winds/seas are not expected to persist long. They should begin to subside a bit by later Monday as winds become more northeast at 15 knots or less, with seas 2 to 4 feet Monday night through Wednesday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Skull Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:36 AM EDT     6.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM EDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 PM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:29 PM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Skull Creek, south entrance, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:33 PM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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