Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 12:02 AM   Moonset 9:48 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 282103 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 PM MST Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warming trend is expected over the next few days as above normal temperatures return by Monday. The forecast remains dry through the coming week, with some afternoon breeziness at times.

DISCUSSION
After an unseasonably cool Sunday morning, southeastern Arizona will undergo a rapid warming trend over the next few days as mid- level heights rise and a warmer low level air mass moves in. Under sunny skies today (with some lingering clouds around the Whites), high temperatures will be about 8 degrees warmer than yesterday, and then climb another 6 to 8 degrees on Monday reaching into the upper 80s.

Southern Arizona remains between split flow through much of this coming week, which keeps temperatures steadily warm but not exceedingly hot either hovering in the upper 80s to lowers 90s.
An upper wave should cross well to our north Wednesday-Thursday, which should do little to change temperatures in southern Arizona.
This should cause daily breeziness with sustained afternoon winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through the second half of the week with the modestly tightened pressure gradient. Dry weather to continue this week.

AVIATION
Valid through 30/00Z.
SKC throughout the entire forecast period. Northwesterly SFC winds this afternoon around 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Overnight winds become light and variable. Tomorrow afternoon SFC winds around 8-10 kts from the southwest with gusts to 15 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be 3-5 degrees below normal today, warming to 3-7 degrees above normal Monday through the rest of the week. 20-foot winds will be below 15 mph most of this week, with afternoon gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest winds appear to be on Wednesday, with southwest winds at 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 10-15 percent range today, decreasing into the single digits this week. Min RH values in the mountains will be in the 15- 30 percent range today, lowering to 12-18 percent this week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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