Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 7:09 PM Moonrise 3:55 AM   Moonset 4:43 PM

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FXUS65 KTWC 052104 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 PM MST Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly sunny, warm and windy through the early evening hours tonight. Areas of blowing dust will also be possible. Cooler with less wind on Monday, then temperatures warm up the remainder of the week into next weekend with continued afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION
A storm system centered over the western Great Basin will move eastward into the plains on Monday. This system has resulted in breezy to windy conditions across southeast Arizona today, with southwest winds of 15-30 mph and gusts between 35-45 mph. These winds will continue into the early evening hours tonight before diminishing. A Red Flag Warning continues in effect for all of southeast through 7 pm MST this evening. Although there have been no reports of blowing dust as of yet, it will be a concern with the wind speeds and dry soils into the early evening hours, especially in prone areas along I-10 between Willcox and San Simon and from Red Rock northward. High temperatures today will top out 2-4 degrees above normal, or in the lower 80s to around 90 degrees in the lower elevation locations.

On the back side of the system Monday, high temperatures will lower 5-7 degrees (versus highs today) and top out 2-4 degrees below normal. Still breezy, but below fire weather thresholds. Expect west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph across portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties and lower wind speeds further west.

Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures warm back up to 1-3 degrees above normal. Wind speeds pick back up during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially to the east of Tucson. Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties will be near critical fire weather thresholds.

Thursday, highs continue to be 1-3 degrees above normal, with less wind and typical May afternoon/early evening breezy conditions due to strong surface heating.

Friday into next weekend, highs warm to 4-7 degrees above normal with typical afternoon breeziness.

AVIATION
Valid through 07/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 06/00Z. SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL between 06/00Z and 06/18Z. SWLY SFC at 17-26 kts and gusts up to 40 kts thru 06/03Z. Decreasing SFC wind aft 06/03Z, with SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction between 06/06Z and 06/18Z. WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 8-16 kts and gusts to around 25 kts from 06/18Z thru the end of the forecast period, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG, KALK and KSAD.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A dry weather system moving to our north today will result in windy southwest winds of 15-30 mph and gusts between 35-45 mph through the early evening hours tonight. High temperatures will briefly cool to below normal levels on Monday behind this system.
Temperatures then remain near to slightly above normal through Thursday before warming up to 4-7 degrees above normal by next weekend. Breezy afternoon and early evening winds will persist much of this week, especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of southeast Arizona until 7 pm MST this evening. The combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low relative humidity levels and a high fire danger rating will result in critical fire weather conditions through the early evening hours tonight.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 7 pm MST this evening for AZZ150>154.

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