Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Catalina Foothills, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:14PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 2:21 PM MST (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:45PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Catalina Foothills, AZ
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location: 32.29, -110.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 201531
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
830 am mst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis Cold this morning with a brief spell of dry weather.

Then, a major winter storm produces valley rain and substantial
mountain snow Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions return by the
weekend. Well below normal daytime temperatures continue through
Saturday then gradually warmer to near normal by next Tuesday.

Discussion Generally clear skies across southeast arizona at this
time, although high clouds rapidly approaching from the northwest in
advance of the next system to impact the area starting late tonight.

Cold temperatures were observed across the area this morning, with
lows in the teens in the valleys across eastern portions of the
forecast area and lows generally in the 20s to near 30 degrees from
tucson westward. With readings starting to warm from morning lows
have let the hard freeze freeze warning expire at 8 am mst.

Highs today will be 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still
around 15 degrees below normal. High temperatures today will top out
in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with the warmest readings from tucson
westward across the lower deserts. Overall, the forecast package
looks to be in good shape. No updates this morning. For more
information on the latter periods of the forecast, including the
major winter storm to impact the area starting late tonight into
Saturday morning, please refer to the prev discussion section below.

Aviation Valid through 21 18z.

Expect skc conditions at ktus and few cirrus at 25k ft agl along the
international border through this afternoon then sct clouds AOA 15k
ft agl area wide thereafter. Winds through the morning less than 10
kts becoming southwesterly at 8-12 kts this afternoon. Late this
evening through the end of the TAF period winds begin to pick up out
of the south southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts to 22 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather After a short dry spell today, a significant winter
storm arrives Thursday morning into Saturday morning with valley
rain and heavy mountain snowfall. 20-ft winds become breezy at
times, especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as
southwesterly winds reach 15-25 mph. After Saturday expect dry
conditions into the beginning of next week with normal diurnal winds.

Climate Below are historical 2 and 3-day snowfall totals for
mount lemmon since 1950. Only 3'+ totals are listed for 2 day events
and 4'+ totals for 3 day events.

2 days
49 inches in 1997 (feb 28 to mar 1)
46 inches in 1998 (feb 8-9)
37 inches in 1991 (mar 1-2)
36 inches in 1998 (mar 29-30)
36 inches in 1997 (jan 13-14)
3 days
56 inches in 1997 (feb 27 to mar 1)
50 inches in 1998 (feb 8-10)

Prev discussion Cold morning area wide with temperatures at 4 am
ranging from the single digits to low teens in the mountains, mid
teens to lower 20s coldest eastern southern valleys and mid 20s to
lower 30s elsewhere. A few spot will be close to daily record lows
before sunrise. Highs today will remain on the very cool side,
running 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

Our attention continues to focused on major winter storm that will
bring periods of moderate to heavy rain at the lower elevations and
a substantial amount of snow to the mountains of southeast arizona
where 3 to 4 feet of snow is possible above 7000 feet.

The storm bringing all of this rain and snow was over washington,
oregon and northern california this morning. A 125-150 knot upper
level jet on back side of this system will drive it south today.

Clouds increasing this evening area wide with scattered showers
developing west of tucson after midnight. Showers and mountain snow
will then increase in areal coverage on Thursday. Snow intensity
will also be on the increase and start a bit earlier than previously
forecast. With that in mind and in coordination with neighboring
office, we upgraded the winter storm watch to warning above 5000 and
started it six hours earlier for most of the mountain chains. The
chiricahua mountains will be the last of the ranges to see snow,
thus the warning doesn't start until Thursday night which also
includes the oracle area. More on snow below 5000 feet further down
in this discussion.

Snow intensities in the mountains will be the greatest late Thursday
afternoon into early Friday morning as this will be the time for the
best dynamics aloft and strong upslope flow, thanks to 40-50 kts
winds, will be the greatest. Snowfall rates above 6000 feet could be
as high as 2" per hour for about a 10-12 hour period, like between 8
pm Thursday to 8 am Friday. With that in mind snowfall accumulations
were increased, especially across the catalina, rincon and santa
rita mountains where two to three feet are likely with localized
spot potentially seeing up to four feet. Incredible. The gusty winds
will produce blizzard conditions for the mountains for this event.

See climate section below on historical snow storms for mount lemmon.

Can't forget the lower elevations where widespread rain will be
occurring Thursday and Friday. The best time frame for moderate to
heavy rain will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. Total qpf
for this storm for the lower elevations will range 0.70" to 1.50"
with localized flooding issues a possibility.

As the core of the upper level trof pushes across the state on
Friday, the snow levels will be crashing down to 3000 to 4000 feet
and then 2000 to 3000 feet Friday night into early Saturday morning.

These elevations could see some accumulating snow mainly in the
trace to 3" range which includes the tucson metro area.

Cold overnight lows Saturday morning with most of the area below
freezing. A hard freeze possible again for the tucson area west.

Conditions improve on Saturday as the system moves east of the area.

Highs Friday quite chilly with most of the lower elevations not
getting out of the 40s.

Dry Sunday into Tuesday with a gradual warming trend.

Twc watches warnings advisories
Winter storm warning from 5 am Thursday to 5 pm mst Friday for

Winter storm warning from 11 pm Thursday to 5 pm mst Friday for

Discussion... Zell
prev discussion... Glueck
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ8 mi83 minWNW 310.00 miFair53°F16°F23%1012.3 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ12 mi28 minVar 410.00 miFair53°F10°F18%1011 hPa
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ17 mi36 minESE 410.00 miFair54°F12°F19%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW8
1 day agoNW13NW7N6S3CalmN6CalmCalmS3S5SE3SE3SE4CalmCalmSW3SW6W6NW6W8W12
2 days agoW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.