Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 3:57 PM   Moonset 3:05 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 192139 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 239 PM MST Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will bring several degrees of cooling along with gusty afternoon winds this week leading to Red Flag Warning conditions and a low possibility for dry thunderstorms. Expect typical late May temperatures in the 90s for most locations.

DISCUSSION
A broad trough is developing through the Great Basin and much of the intermountain west over the next 24 hours. A weak low off the southern CA / northern Baja coast is expected to move into southern AZ bringing breezy winds to the area Monday afternoon, with a few dry thunderstorms possible near the mountains late Monday into Monday evening. PoPs are low to nonexistent with limited available moisture currently in the forecast. However, NAEFS mean integrated water vapor transport trends continue to increase into our corner of the state for Monday and Monday evening to go along with the breezy to locally windy gradient winds. Combined with modest dynamics and shear from the low, isolated high based dry thunderstorms will be possible. Due to continued troughing in the area this will keep a breezy gradient for most afternoons through the week.

AVIATION
Valid through 21/00Z SKC until 20/03Z becoming FEW-SCT AOA 20k ft AGL. Cloud cover will increase to SCT-BKN AOA 20/11Z AOA 20k ft AGL persisting till the end of the forecast period. This afternoon, westerly SFC winds around 8-10 kts will become light and variable overnight.
Starting around 21/17Z westerly winds increase to 15-17 kts at KTUS and KOLS westward and around 22-24 kts at KSAD and KDUG persisting to the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions continue this week with min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain.
Generally poor overnight recoveries. Weak weather systems passing to our north will bring gusty afternoon winds most days, especially Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and the dry fuels a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday morning through Monday evening for most lower elevations east of Tucson.
In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms late Monday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ152.

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