Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Payne Springs, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:19 AM CDT (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:03PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Payne Springs, TX
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location: 32.29, -96.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 220918
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
418 am cdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term
Today and tonight
in the wake of Tuesday's rain event, a pacific front scoured out
the boundary layer moisture, clearing the skies. This effectively
eliminated our semi-permanent springtime moisture discontinuity,
known in these parts as the dryline. But as we find ourselves in
the latter stages of the spring season, we knew the dry air was
not going to stick around. Rich gulf moisture remained across the
coastal plains, and the return of southerly winds has allowed it
to make a rapid return to north and central texas. The 60-degree
isodrosotherm reached the metroplex during the predawn hours, and
dew points north of 70f have already invaded our southeastern
zones. Much more vigorous advection is occurring above the
nocturnal boundary layer where VWP data is estimating 50kts at
2-4kft agl. As a result, low clouds will continue developing and
spreading further inland through daybreak. Despite the intensity
of the advection, the thin layer is unlikely to produce any
sprinkles or drizzle, and the momentum within the surface layer
should preclude any fog. However, some brief reductions in
visibility will be possible in central and east texas during the
diurnal minimum of wind speed (predawn hours through sunrise).

The surging mt air will meet the seasonal ct air of west texas,
re-establishing and steadily sharpening the dryline on the high
terrain to our west. A healthy inversion above the cloud layer
will slow its erosion east of the boundary, but breaks of Sun will
gradually become more numerous into the afternoon hours. Although
it's only may 22, our Sun angle today will be the same as on july
20 or 21. Beyond the need for sunscreen, this emphasizes the power
of the insolation this time of year; and even with the extensive
cloud cover and moisture-laden surface layer, temperatures should
still manage to exceed seasonal normals this afternoon. Mlcape
values will soar above 4000 j kg, but with the surface boundary
well to our west and no large-scale forcing for ascent, this
instability will likely go unrealized. Toward peak heating, the
convergence along the dryline may allow for a few cells to develop
near or within our northwestern zones, but these should remain
isolated and would have a tendency to race north across the red
river, limiting their duration within north texas. Regardless, any
storms that are able to develop would have initiated from
incredibly unstable boundary layer parcels and would quickly
become severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates would enhance the
potential for large hail, and the resulting precip-loading would
yield an attendant damaging wind threat. Any outflow boundaries
could encourage additional development that may linger into the
evening hours, but it's unlikely than any cells would reach areas
as far southeast as the dallas fort worth metroplex.

25

Long term
Thursday onward
the extended forecast will feature the onset of an early
summertime feel with warm temperatures, high humidity, and
limited rain chances. The potential for widespread rainfall or
any strong severe storms appears minimal through early next week.

While the anomalous upper low responsible for several days of
widespread thunderstorms across the plains lifts northward through
midweek, another deep upper trough will develop across the western
half of the country by Thursday. Across the east, a building
bermuda high will place texas between these two features within
deep southwesterly flow. For Thursday and Friday this will mean
morning stratus intrusions followed by high temperatures climbing
into the upper 80s and low 90s with breezy southerly winds. The
combination of warm temperatures and high dewpoints will yield
afternoon heat index values in the low to mid 90s each afternoon.

This pattern will also be favorable for dryline convection far
to our west during the peak heating hours. All of this convection
should largely remain west or northwest of the forecast area as
the influence of the upper ridge along with diurnally-increasing
cin causes activity to weaken as it moves eastward. Will continue
to only mention some low storm chances across our northwestern
zones late Thursday into Friday when some of this decaying
activity could impinge on north texas. Otherwise, the extent of
the precipitation potential throughout this time will lie with
perhaps a couple warm advection showers just about anywhere in the
forecast area, although no more than a silent 10% pop seems
warranted.

Similar conditions are generally expected over the weekend and
into early next week with limited rain chances and highs in the
neighborhood of 90 degrees. Additional thunderstorms look likely
to our west and northwest, with once again only a limited chance
for convection to be maintained within our cwa. The next question
mark in the forecast is a possible breakdown of the ridge early
in the coming week, as the upper low, which will have been parked
over the southwestern states for several days, finally begins to
advance east or northeast. One possibility is an eastward retreat
of the high which would allow the trough to encroach on the
southern plains and deliver a decent shot of showers and storms
around midweek. The other solution would be an east-west
elongation of the ridge while the shortwave energy lifts northeast
along its periphery, leaving us mostly warm and dry. Will only
show some low rain chances in north texas during the midweek time
frame at this juncture without a clear signal for any widespread
precipitation through the extended.

-stalley

Aviation issued 1155 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
06z tafs
the anticipated moisture return can be clearly seen on satellite
now as a deck of low clouds is advancing northward across central
texas. Initially, a broken deck of MVFR clouds is expected,
followed by an overcast sky with a gradual decrease in ceiling
height. Guidance has significantly backed off on the potential of
ifr impacting waco as it appears any ifr will likely be across
the hill country. The reduced cloud heights will gradually advance
northward as the low level jet strengthens. Winds overnight will
remain out of the south, generally at or below 10 knots. As we go
through the day on Wednesday and the low level jet continues,
albeit weaker, momentum transfer from the strong winds above the
surface will lead to gusty conditions in the afternoon. Winds
could gust up to 25 kts at all TAF locations but shouldn't pose a
crosswind issue given its southerly direction.

The deck of clouds will remain in place through much of the day,
but with daytime mixing, ceiling heights are expected to rise to
vfr by mid-afternoon. TheVFR conditions will be short-lived as
the low level jet strengthens once again and leads to another bout
of MVFR by early Thursday morning.

Hernandez

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 86 74 89 73 89 10 10 5 5 10
waco 87 75 90 73 89 10 10 5 5 5
paris 86 72 87 69 87 10 10 5 5 5
denton 86 73 88 72 88 10 10 5 10 10
mckinney 86 74 88 72 88 10 10 5 5 10
dallas 87 75 90 73 89 10 10 5 5 10
terrell 87 74 90 71 90 10 10 5 5 5
corsicana 88 74 89 71 89 10 10 5 5 5
temple 88 74 90 73 88 10 10 5 5 5
mineral wells 85 73 89 70 87 10 10 5 10 10

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

25 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corsicana, Campbell Field-Corsicana Municipal Airport, TX24 mi27 minSSE 89.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1005.9 hPa

Wind History from CRS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS18
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1 day agoSE7S9SE9SE9SE9SE9S14S13S13S16
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2 days agoSW9SW9SW6SW9SW7W7NW9NW4334NW6NE4NE4E4NE4NE5NE6NE6E9SE6S10--SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.