Monday, October15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Picture Rocks, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:52PM Monday October 15, 2018 4:25 AM MST (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:37PMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Picture Rocks, AZ
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location: 32.3, -111.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 151053
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
353 am mst Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this
afternoon followed by widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
tonight into Tuesday. Gusty east winds will also prevail tonight
into Tuesday. Dry conditions across much of the area Wednesday
through Friday before greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms
next weekend. Daytime temperatures well below seasonal normals into
midweek before a warming trend late in the week.

Discussion Upper trough axis extended from the central rockies
southwestward into southern california early this morning.

Meanwhile, a cold front was moving westward across southwest new
mexico. Various numerical weather model solutions depict a 567 dm
low to become centered over far southwest arizona by this evening.

Several hrrr solutions as well as the 15 00z nam12 gfs ECMWF also
depict lower level wind convergence to develop this afternoon near
or just west of the tucson metro area. This convergence zone is in
response to strengthening low level easterlies that are progged to
expand westward across the area by this evening.

The combination of increasing lower level moisture from the east and
fairly decent synoptic scale ascent associated with the deepening
low pressure system will enhance rainfall chances across the area
later today and especially tonight into Tuesday. Several hrrr
solutions have been quite consistent with the potential development
of showers and thunderstorms from tucson westward into the tohono
o'odham nation and northwest into pinal county this afternoon. The
threat of severe thunderstorms is quite negligible due to minimal
cape. However, locally heavy rainfall may occur in this area as per
wpc's marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

The 15 00z deterministic gfs ECMWF were quite similar with depicting
a 565 dm low to be just southwest of phoenix early Tuesday morning.

Expect scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
tonight into Tuesday. The bulk of heaviest rainfall Tuesday should
occur north of this forecast area. However, some heavier rainfall
amounts may yet occur within southeast arizona sufficient for at
least minor flooding concerns. Gusty east to southeast winds that
develop across much of the area tonight will continue into Tuesday.

The upper low is progged to move slowly northward toward northern
arizona by midday Wednesday. The coverage of showers will decrease
from southwest to northeast Tuesday night followed by just a slight
chance of showers and mountain snow showers from safford
northeastward by daybreak Wednesday. Except for a slight chance of
showers mainly across the white mountains, dry conditions will
prevail Wednesday through Thursday night.

Thereafter, the gfs ECMWF were in fairly good agreement with
depicting the next upper low to develop by midday Friday over
southern california. Meanwhile, high pressure aloft will become
established north of the upper low or over the pacific northwest.

This classic rex block pattern is progged to continue into Saturday.

The upper high will move eastward Sunday as the upper low fills
farther south over southern california. The upshot from this pattern
is that deeper moisture should once again be pulled westward into
the area Friday into next week. There is a slight chance of showers
east of tucson Friday, then a chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms returns Saturday into Sunday.

High temps today will be quite similar to Sunday's temps and
continue about 10-15 degrees or so below normal. However, daytime
temps Tuesday will be an additional 2-7 degrees cooler versus today.

A warming trend is on tap Wednesday through Friday followed by no
significant change in daytime temps next weekend. Thus, high temps
Friday into Sunday are expected to be closer to seasonal normals,
but still remain a few degrees below normal.

Aviation Valid through 16 12z.

Isolated to scattered -shra mainly east of ktus this morning, then
scattered -tsra -shra this afternoon. Scattered to numerous -shra
with embedded -tsra this evening into Tuesday morning. MVFR
conditions and local ifr conditions should occur especially this
evening into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, cloud decks generally 4k-8k
ft agl. Surface wind this morning generally less than 10 kts.

Surface wind this afternoon into Tuesday morning ely sely 10-20 kts
with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for taf

Fire weather Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by this
afternoon followed by scattered to numerous showers tonight into
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Dry conditions Wednesday through Friday
except for a slight chance of showers across the white mountains.

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms should return next
weekend. Gusty east winds developing today east of tucson, the
potential strong and gusty east winds at times tonight into
Wednesday. Somewhat lighter east winds Thursday into Friday, but
gusty winds should return next weekend.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Francis
aviation... Gl
fire weather... Gl
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi33 minWNW 310.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1013 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ19 mi88 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F51°F84%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW6------------------CalmCalmNW4NW4NW4--NW4CalmSW4NW4----NW4NW4
1 day agoE10------------------E10E5E4CalmNE3SE4E8--W7------N4Calm
2 days agoSW8------------------E7--SE3SE7NE8SE7SE7--E18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.