Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 3:04 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 182114 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 214 PM MST Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry with higher temperatures this weekend. A weak trough will bring temperatures down to near-normal early next week with breezy afternoon winds.

DISCUSSION
All eyes are on the thermometer today, with the potential for Tucson to possibly reach 100 degrees today. As of 2 pm MST, the highest temperature has been 97 degrees. This is due to the shortwave ridge that is keeping the area 5-8 degrees above normal.

An upper level trough then begins to move down the west coast into the region tomorrow, tightening the gradient Monday as the system comes in. With this gradient, the winds increase more than our typical afternoon breeziness to 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph during this time, with the strongest winds with this system remain to areas east of Tucson. This elevated wind led to the issuance for a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon, see more in the fire weather discussion below. This system continues to be mainly dry with some chances for some high based storms that would have an uphill battle having any precipitation making its way to the valley floor with the very dry low and mid levels.

After this system passes, the pattern becomes more zonal with a few shortwave troughs picking up the afternoon winds slightly.
This pattern will keep the temperatures at or near normal for the rest of the forecast period.

AVIATION
Valid through 20/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL primarily between thorough 18/21Z.
From KTUS east, FEW Cumulus around 8-10k ft AGL between 18/20Z and 19/03Z. SFC Wly/SWly winds at 10-17kts though 19/06Z then again 19/20Z through the end of the period. Otherwise SFC winds remain under 10kts and follow diurnal trends.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions continue this weekend with min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain. Temperatures this weekend approach the high 90s for much of the valleys, with today being the hottest day, before dropping to near normal by Tuesday. Westerly 20-foot winds will generally follow diurnal trends through the beginning of next week with gusty afternoon winds (less than 30 mph). However, Monday and Tuesday will have the strongest 20-foot winds due to a passing system to our north (wind gusts up to 35 mph). In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and the dry fuels a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday morning through Monday evening.



TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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