Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 2:09 PM   Moonset 2:18 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 170907 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 207 AM MST Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry with hotter temperatures into the weekend. A weak trough will knock temperatures back down to near seasonal averages next week along with breezy conditions at times.

DISCUSSION
The weak low and saggy trough that brought isolated convection to the area will shift eastward today with a shortwave ridge building in from the west. Drier, with temperatures climbing to 4-8 degrees above climo into Monday. Saturday should be the hottest day, with a chance at the first 100 degree day of the year for Tucson.

Another weakness in the flow from the eastern Pacific will be drawn eastward with a trough digging into the region early next week. This will knock temps back down closer to climo by Tuesday and bring another modest and temporary moisture increase. Don't be surprised if we see another round of isolated high based convection late Monday or so.

A broad zonal flow for SE AZ the second half of the week, with a late transition season storm track well north of our area and broad high pressure over central and southern Mexico to our south.
Early hurricane season tropical activity possible south of Mexico with favorable shear and SSTs to support easterly impulses under the high.

AVIATION
Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL thru 17/12Z with FEW-SCT again after 17/20Z. SFC winds less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 17/17Z becoming WLY/NWLY thereafter with speeds of 8-16 kts and gusts to around 25 kts. The strongest winds are expected east of KTUS in the vicinity of KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry weather returns today with high temperatures warming to 3-5 degrees above normal. Tomorrow and Sunday, highs will warm further running 6-9 degrees above normal before lowering back to within a couple of degrees of normal next Tuesday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 10-20 percent range this afternoon and then in the single digits to lower teens Saturday into the middle of next week, with values in the mountains between 20-35 percent this afternoon and 10-20 percent Saturday through the middle of next week. 20-foot winds will generally follow typical diurnal wind trends through early next week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds will be this afternoon and next Monday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph.
West-northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with southwest- west winds on Monday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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