Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 1:38 AM   Moonset 12:02 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1248 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 12 seconds. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 12 seconds. Thu - N winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Fri night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 1248 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A weak disturbance will move off the coast this morning. High pressure will then prevail through Friday. A series of disturbances will move through Saturday through Monday, then high pressure will rebuild.

FXUS62 KCHS 011811 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 211 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance will move off the coast this morning. High pressure will then prevail through Friday. A series of disturbances will move through Saturday through Monday, then high pressure will rebuild.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early afternoon update: Spotty showers have developed along the sea breezes, largely across Charleston County. Convection is struggling thus far, although some thunder is still a possibility as instability builds further. No substantial changes were made to the going forecast.

Previous discussion...
Morning satellite and upper air charts reveal a well defined short-wave spinning off the North Carolina coast into the Atlantic and slightly lower heights/cooler air aloft across the coastal Carolinas into southeast Georgia. Early morning showers along the southern periphery of the wave have weakened and moved into the Atlantic. Morning fog/stratus is eroding/mixing out.

Rest of today: Upper level troughiness will weaken as upstream ridging builds into the southeast coast through the afternoon, although modestly cooler mid level air will linger into tonight.
With those cooler mid level temps, high resolution forecast guidance and soundings show the development of 500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE this afternoon across the South Carolina counties...a bit lower through southeast Georgia where mid level temps will be warmer. Minimal larger scale forcing for ascent will exist across the region this afternoon. But prevailing westerly low level flow and development of the sea breeze will lead to respectable convergence along the coast this afternoon with RAP13 guidance suggesting the strongest convergence will be across the South Carolina counties.

Upshot: Some pop-up showers and thunderstorms are a good bet along the inland pressing sea breeze after 2 pm with the higher probabilities looking to be across the South Carolina counties.
Severe storm risk is low, although SPC RAP data does show just a touch (25-30 knots) of effective bulk shear across the SC coastal areas...owing to modestly stronger mid level northwesterly flow. This might support a stronger updraft or two.

Tonight: Ridging aloft builds overhead, while a weak pressure pattern is found at the surface that shows Bermuda high pressure offshore, another high near the Appalachians and a broad, but weak trough in the local vicinity. The loss of heating will quickly allow for convection along the sea breeze to come to an end, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The biggest concern will be in regards to fog. Light to calm winds, subsidence with a fairly strong inversion trapping moisture underneath, and favorable condensation pressure deficits will produce at least patchy coverage to the fog. However, some guidance is hitting it harder, and shows not only greater coverage, but also some potential for dense fog. There's a little cooler air that moves in as skies clear, allowing for lows to get a few degrees cooler than it was this morning.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Deep layered ridging will prevail Thursday into Friday. Despite a robust afternoon sea breeze both days and decent moisture advection, strong mid-level subsidence should maintain dry conditions. Above normal temperatures expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The upper ridge axis will shift just off the coast Saturday morning, allowing upper shortwave energy to move into the area from the west. Prevailing onshore flow should allow a sea breeze to develop fairly early in the day and progress inland. The best convergence and forcing for convection will exist inland.
Greater sky cover will knock a few degrees off high temps, with low/mid 80s expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A quasi-zonal flow will exist Saturday night through Monday, with a series of upper shortwaves moving through. Fairly deep moisture will be in place, and a good sea breeze will develop each day. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the period. Broad upper ridging Monday night through Tuesday will bring mainly dry conditions with temperatures climbing into the 90s in many areas.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two are possible this afternoon, primarily at KJZI and KCHS with a lesser chance at KSAV. Given the lower probs for thunder, I have removed the mention from the terminal forecasts with the 18Z forecast and will amened as necessary.

VFR conditions heading into this evening. Development of fog appears likely at all terminals later tonight into Thursday morning. We have introduced IFR visibilities at the terminals with the 18Z forecasts, but there is a risk for LIFR toward Thursday morning. Conditions return to VFR Thursday morning after 13Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in overnight/early morning fog and stratus. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday.

MARINE
Today and tonight: The local waters will lie under or near the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure, while a subtle trough is found over nearby land areas. The resulting pressure pattern is relaxed, and even with sea breeze circulations this afternoon and evening, wind speeds will mainly be no higher than 10 or perhaps 15 kt. Seas will be just 2 or 3 feet. Late tonight there will be the formation of some fog over land areas, some of which could move into the Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic waters very close to shore.

No marine concerns expected Thursday through Monday. Atlantic high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a relatively weak gradient in the area. Wind speeds will generally stay below 10 kt except right along the coast with the afternoon sea breeze, and seas will mostly run 2-3 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Purrysburg Landing
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Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:20 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:23 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:51 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Purrysburg Landing, Savannah River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:01 AM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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