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FXUS64 KJAN 040249 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 949 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rest of tonight...

Evening RAP analysis/GOES East water vapor imagery indicate shortwave axis moving through the northeastern portions of the region, with rain chances quickly dwindling. In the wake, there is some descent & GOES East total precipitable water (PWs) indicate some drying along the Gulf Coast & to the west. 00Z soundings, especially at SHV, indicate drying in the 700-300mb layer, with lowered mean RH's in this layer progged to spread eastward. This will continue to clear out cloudiness. With continued moist southerly flow gradually decoupling, lows falling into the low- mid 60s, crossover temps will reach nearly 3-6 degrees. This pattern supports low stratus & dense fog developing after midnight across the region. HRRR probs >10-30% are widespread & convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate potential for areas of dense fog across the Gulf Coast region. There could be two zones of concern for dense fog, northwest of the Natchez Trace & to the southeast, with some decreased coverage along the Natchez Trace & I-55 corridor. Decided to not get too specific & went ahead with an areawide "Elevated" HWO graphic / Dense Fog advisory. The advisory runs from just after midnight through 9AM Saturday.
Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring across much of the area this afternoon, and this will continue before ending from west to east early this evening. Skies may clear some overnight, and with good radiational cooling patchy areas of dense fog will be possible early on Saturday. An HWO graphic will be issued for this potential. Another short wave will move into the area Saturday afternoon and this will kick off another round of shower's and storms. With a little better lapse rate/instability on Saturday, a strong to possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Little will change on Sunday as moisture continues and yet another in a series of short waves move across the area. Drier air begins to move into the area Sunday night. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/

Monday into Friday...the overall forecast for next week remains similar. Focus will be well above normal/heat early into mid week, potential for severe storms mainly in the Thu-Fri periods, then followed by a marked cool down. The driver for the increasing warmth will be with a pattern shift to more of a ridge influence with the ridge axis over us Mon, then the ridge shifting eastward as we see a powerful system dive across the Rockies and Central Plains. We will be on the western periphery of the low level ridge/high and that will provide a decent S/SW lower level flow to bring in moisture and those well above normal lower level temps. Additionally, we will see capping in play which will keep rain/storm chances more in check.
There's some 20-30% type PoPs for Mon-Wed, but this is more due to model variability and I expect this to lower some. The exception could be in the far N, where more proximity to the better lift could allow for better chances.

As for severe weather potential...this is mainly looking like potential for a round or two sometime in the Thu/Fri periods. PoPs have come in higher which fits and will follow. Look for chances to continue to increase for a particular period as better timing starts to work itself out. Like yesterday and prev guidance, uncertainty is pretty decent on specifics and timing, which is often the case at day 6-7. However, the pattern and consistency for the needed ingredients (instability, steep lapse rates, moisture, shear, lift)
continue to show up. I'll also add, later Wed night is a period to watch as well as there will likely be severe activity on-going to our NW/N which could migrate down into some of our northern area.
Lastly, the ingredients I noted are all reaching very solid levels and fitting of a potentially upper end type event(s). Details will determine the type of severe, but at this time, confidence is on wind/hail.

In the wake of this system, the trends are for a solid front/trough passage for the weekend which would bring much cooler conditions to the area. /CME/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Other than some light SHRA lingering at GTR/MEI, expect clearing over the next hour. Expect a mixed bag of IFR-LIFR flight categories overnight, with worst flight categorical restrictions from low stratus & some dense fog across the area. Onset timing looks to be around 04/07-09Z before lifting to VFR around 07/14-16Z. Light southerly sfc winds will persist the next 24 hours, sustained up to 10mph & brief higher gusts. Some SHRA & iso TSRA are psbl Saturday aftn, but confidence is too low to introduce in the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 64 86 66 83 / 10 40 30 50 Meridian 63 88 65 87 / 20 40 30 40 Vicksburg 64 86 67 83 / 10 40 30 50 Hattiesburg 65 88 66 87 / 0 30 10 30 Natchez 64 86 65 81 / 0 40 30 50 Greenville 66 84 67 80 / 10 40 40 60 Greenwood 65 84 67 83 / 10 40 40 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075.

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