Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jackson, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 5:54PM Saturday February 23, 2019 8:55 AM CST (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jackson, MS
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location: 32.32, -90.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 231117
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
517 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Focus transitioning to severe weather potential later today...

Update
Updated for 12z aviation discussion

Aviation
12z TAF discussion:
MVFR ceilings will continue to prevail at all TAF sites through
much of the period as a strong storm system moves through the area
today. The main concern will be severe thunderstorms with all
hazards possible. These storms will move through the area from
west to east between noon and 9pm this evening. Winds will also be
gusty up to 40kts this afternoon.VFR conditions will gradually
move in behind the departing storms this evening. Tw

Discussion
A significant severe weather episode is expected to unfold across
the region today as a strong storm system moves through. A potent
negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated jet energy will
lift northeast from the southern plains into the midwest today into
tonight. Surface cyclogenesis is underway across the texas panhandle
with a deepening low progged to lift through kansas and into north
central missouri. A robust warm sector continues to surge north this
morning with surface based instability and upper 60s dewpoints
already encroaching on the hwy 82 corridor. Widespread elevated
shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually shifted north during
the early morning hours and is now focused across far northern
mississippi and into tennessee. Scattered warm air advection showers
were also noted within the open warm sector and will continue
through the morning into the afternoon.

The main focus will quickly shift to organized and significant
severe weather from roughly noon to 8pm. Latest suite of hi-res cam
guidance is in fairly good agreement that upstream convection will
develop by mid morning across central louisiana and will push
through the CWA through the day into the early evening hours. This
convection will reside within a prefrontal surface trough ahead of a
pseudo dryline as the actual cold front will lag further northwest.

Low-level mass response to the deepening surface cyclone will help
increase low-level wind fields that will foster elongated
cyclonically curved hodographs. 50-55kts of deep layer shear
oriented off the initiating boundary will be more than sufficient
for discrete supercell development as mid-level height falls
overspread the area. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support
1000-1500 j kg of mlcape, with greater instability possible if gaps
in cloud cover can be realized. The most favorable parameter space
will reside across the hwy 82 corridor where a moderate risk area
has been introduced after collaboration with SPC and neighboring
offices. It is across this area where tornadoes, some of which could
be strong and long track, will be most likely. The enhanced risk
area was also expanded south to include all of the i-20 corridor
where discrete supercells will also be possible. Tornadoes, a few of
which could be strong, will also be possible across this area.

Further south, tornadoes will also be possible, however confidence
in both coverage and severity of storms begins to decrease further
south of the better parameter space and height falls. The lowest
confidence remains across the far southeastern portion of the cwa
where guidance has been less impressive with convective potential.

Will continue to advertise this lower threat with a marginal risk.

Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 c km will support large hail up
to golf ball size, especially with any discrete supercells that are
able to maintain intense updrafts. There are indications that a
broken qlcs could develop behind the initial discrete supercells. If
this scenario pans out damaging winds of 60-70mph will also be
possible.

Finally, flash flooding will remain a concern, especially across the
northern portion of the area that has seen numerous rounds of heavy
rainfall and significant flooding over the last few days. The good
news, though, is that by later this morning into the afternoon the
pattern will become much more progressive with one final round of
fast moving storms before conditions finally clear out. However,
anomalous moisture will remain in place and heavy rainfall rates
from any convection would easily exacerbate ongoing flooding. As
such, will continue the flash flood watch through the rest of the
day. Reduced the hwo graphics threat from extreme to elevated with
only 1-2" of additional rainfall as the greatest threat for higher
end flooding has shifted into far northern mississippi.

Last but not least, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and
low 80s across much of the area and will promote strong mixing
upwards of 900mb. This depth of mixing will help bring down strong
wind gusts of 40-49mph to the surface, especially across the delta.

Will continue to advertise the ongoing wind advisory and
elevated limited gradient wind threat in the hwo graphics.

The actually cold front will drop into the area after midnight with
overnight low temperatures tonight dropping into the low 50s to mid
40s. Tw
Sunday through the next work week:
considering the variety of messy weather conditions that have been
persistent in the region for quite some time, the weather will be
trending very nice by Sunday as high pressure dominates in the
wake of the cold front coming through Saturday night. Look for
mostly clear (to, at worst, partly cloudy) conditions from Sunday
through late Monday with temperatures near seasonal norms. There
is potential for some frost Sunday night, but at this point the
prospect of more than very isolated locations getting down to the
freezing mark is low.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday night as a low amplitude
disturbance in fast zonal flow aloft interacts with a baroclinic
zone near (or south) of the coast. Some light rain showers getting
up to the highway 84 corridor are not out of the question late in
the night.

Thereafter, model consensus through the rest of the work week is
not terribly good. Main issue is that multiple low-amplitude short
waves are expected to progress through the lower mississippi
valley, occasionally interacting with a loose baroclinic zone
remaining mostly near the coast. The european model has been
most consistent with keeping most areas mainly dry through this
period. However, the GFS and GEFS have been showing more
amplification with a few of these pieces of energy and, thus,
greater chances for precipitation. Negotiated this uncertainty
by generally expressing slight chances of rain Tuesday through
Friday in the official forecast each day, with a little better
overall chance of measurable precipitation in southern zones.

Definitely expecting some refinement of the forecast for these
periods coming in the next day or two as models work out some of
the differences in the rather unsettled pattern aloft. But, all in
all, the forecast is not looking too bad considering the threat
for hazardous weather in the long term is quite low. Temperatures
should likely trend not too far from average with seasonably
chilly air having a hard time working south into the region. In
fact, at times where more Sun than clouds dominate then
temperatures on some days could end up being pleasantly mild. Bb

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 82 48 60 36 84 65 2 2
meridian 81 50 63 36 52 84 4 2
vicksburg 82 46 59 37 84 15 2 2
hattiesburg 83 53 66 38 42 53 3 1
natchez 81 47 60 38 80 23 2 2
greenville 79 44 56 35 84 4 2 1
greenwood 81 45 57 34 84 37 2 1

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... Flash flood watch through this evening for msz018-019-025>042.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight cst tonight
for msz018-019-025>028-034>037-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.

La... Flash flood watch through this evening for laz007>009-015.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight cst tonight
for laz008-009-015-016-023>026.

Ar... Flash flood watch through this evening for arz074-075.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight cst tonight
for arz075.

Tw bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jackson, Hawkins Field Airport, MS1 mi63 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast71°F70°F96%1013.6 hPa
Jackson, Jackson International Airport, MS7 mi62 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F87%1014 hPa
JB Williams Airport, MS11 mi61 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds72°F71°F100%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from HKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3N4N6NE74E6NE45NE34NW3E4E3S7S9S7S6S7S6SE8SE11SE8SE8
1 day ago4NE5NE7E7NE63N6NE5NE5NE3N6N7NE535NE8E5E6E4E5E5SE3SE4E4
2 days agoNW5W10W7W7W10NW6NW6NW4NW5N4N5N3CalmNE3N3Calm3CalmCalmSE755NE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.