Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 4:16 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 050940 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 440 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today and Tonight: Patchy dense fog will be possible in areas of the pine belt this morning, thus a limited threat continues through 9am. In addition isolated rain and storm chances will be possible this morning in the west/northwest as another shortwave trough approaches the area. Continued rain and storm chances will be possible this afternoon and evening in the (30-50%) range areawide as the wave continues to move east. Expect convection to be isolated to scattered as remnant storm activity in the high plains will be the main factor, as redevelopment will be possible in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day. Thus a marginal risk for severe storms has already been added to the HWO with the main threats being an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail. Previous marginal threat areas have been expanded to cover a majority of the CWA excluding the pine belt. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low-80s in the west to the high-80s in the east. Look for convective activity to wane overnight, and this could be followed by the redevelopment of fog as we go into early Monday morning. /KP/

Monday through Saturday: A very warm and moist airmass will help to fuel an increasingly active weather pattern over the lower Mississippi Valley region. This will especially be the case as we go into mid week, when the concern for severe weather and heavy rainfall could be on the increase. The upper level longwave pattern to begin the work week will feature an impressive trough over the western half of the CONUS and an anomalously warm southeastern ridge with H850 T up to around 20 deg C. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s for much of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon, and heat indices should approach 100 F.

As we go from Wednesday into Thursday, the westerlies should begin to have more influence, and this would lead to increased convective potential as a cold front moves southward into our area. Initially, convective systems and associated cold pools/outflow boundaries will most likely impact northwest to northern portions of the area, and then areas farther south along/south of the I-20 corridor would be impacted late Thursday into Friday. Given the very unstable airmass associated with the anomalously hot and humid conditions, at least some threat for strong to severe storms and perhaps heavy rainfall can be expected.

For Friday into Saturday, a big change is expected in the longwave pattern with a western ridge to eastern trough taking shape. This will support a big surge of cooler air into the forecast area and much drier conditions. /EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Beginning around 8Z a possible round of patchy dense fog will impact southeastern TAF sites through 15Z as high moisture and low winds will make it east for fog development.Some light SHRA & iso TSRA are psbl Sunday aftn, and may lower categories at TAF sites GLH/GTR/GWO briefly before improving back to VFR. There are also low probabilities at JAN/HKS/HEZ this afternoon through this evening./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 85 67 85 69 / 60 50 30 10 Meridian 89 65 87 67 / 50 40 30 0 Vicksburg 83 67 85 70 / 60 50 30 10 Hattiesburg 88 67 88 70 / 40 20 30 0 Natchez 82 66 85 69 / 60 30 30 0 Greenville 82 68 84 71 / 80 70 30 10 Greenwood 85 67 85 70 / 80 70 40 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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