Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:09 AM EDT (04:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 6:07PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 1127 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening... Then showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft... Building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms...mainly in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas can be higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1127 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Unsettled weather will persist across the southeast through Wednesday. A cold front will push offshore Wednesday night into Thursday followed by high pressure prevailing into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, SC
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location: 32.33, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 240338
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1138 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Unsettled weather will persist across the southeast through
Wednesday. A cold front will push offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday followed by high pressure prevailing into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Late this evening: showers and thunderstorms have diminished
significantly and most of the activity is now impacting the
adjacent coastal waters. There is a new narrow slot of
convection impacting areas from around metter to the area south
of sylvania. Overall, we should be in a relative lull for the
overnight so pop's generally decrease with time through sunrise.

The flash flood watch and tornado watch have both been dropped
this evening as well.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
On Wednesday, short range guidance indicates that sfc low pressure
will organize and deepen across the ohio river valley through the
daylight hours. At the mid levels, a large closed h5 low is expected
to track from missouri at 12z sliding over west tennessee by 0z
Thursday. At daybreak Wednesday, deep convection should be plentiful
across the northern gulf of mexico north across the panhandle of fl.

Light convection is possible across the land forecast area with
marine thunderstorms during the morning hours. A sfc cold front
should push east across al and N ga during the morning hours. By
early Wednesday afternoon, gom and n. Fl convection is expected to
develop northward across SE ga ahead of the front. In addition,
gfs1deg suggests that a wide field of h5 q-vector convergence will
spread over the CWA during the afternoon and evening. Across the
forecast area, return flow ahead of the cold front should pool sfc
cape to 2000 j kg or greater by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show 0-6 km shear will range around 40 kts. Sweat values should peak
between 300-350 during the afternoon. Given the combination of
synoptic scale forcing and moderate instability llvl shear, it
appears that clusters of organized convection will develop along and
ahead of the cold front. The potential for severe thunderstorms
should peak between 18z - 00z thu. Torrential rainfall may also
occur before 22z, with pw around 1.8 inches and k-index around 35.

We will continue to highlight the potential for severe weather and
excessive rainfall in the hwo. Otherwise, the forecast for Wednesday
will include gusty ssw winds and high temperatures around 80.

Wednesday night: dry air is timed to increase from the west through
the overnight hours. Lingering llvl instability and a pool of
moisture near the center of the h5 closed low. Convection should be
weak with light qpf. H85 temps are forecast to cool from 12c over se
ga at 0z thurs to 8c by 12z thurs. Low temperatures should easily
fall into the low to mid 60s.

Thursday: short range guidance indicates that weak showers may slide
across the inland counties during the daylight hours. The weak
convection will be timed to the passage of the h5 trough. H85 temps
are forecast to fall as low as 7c across inland sc before slow waa
occurs during the afternoon. I will populate with the cooler
temperature guidance, favoring highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday night into Friday: sfc high pressure centered over fl will
gradually ridge north across ga sc. Deep dry air will increase
across the region, yielding clear to mostly clear conditions and near
zero pops. Radiational cool conditions should result in low temps in
the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Gradually llvl thickness recovery
and good insolation should result in highs in the low 80s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A ridge over the east coast combined with surface high pressure will
provide dry weather in the long term along with a gradual warming
trend each day. Models hint at maybe some rain on Monday.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
Periods of showers and tstms will affect both terminals through
this evening. Possible MVFR ceilings later tonight at ksav,
increasing toVFR after daybreak. Another batch of intense
convection likely to affect both terminals Wednesday afternoon.

Extended aviation outlook: conditions will improve Wednesday
night withVFR prevailing into the weekend.

Marine
Strong low-level jetting through tonight will support small
craft advisories all waters except charleston harbor.

Sw winds will increase Wednesday as a cold front approaches
from the west and then crosses through the region Wednesday
night. A strong surface pressure gradient behind the departing
front will lead to elevated winds on Thursday. Small craft
advisories remain in effect through this time period for gusty
winds and steep seas, especially beyond 20 nm. Conditions will
improve Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
area.

Tides coastal flooding
Evening high tide levels will trend higher each day as we approach
the new moon perigee this Friday, though we expect tides to
remain just below coastal flood advisory stage. The bigger issue
is if heavy rainfall occurs within 2 hrs of high tides through
Wednesday, in which case more significant street flooding would
be possible due mainly to freshwater.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for amz352-354.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt Thursday night for
amz350-374.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Ned
long term... Ms
aviation... Jrl ned
marine... Jrl ned
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41033 5 mi62 min W 19 G 25 76°F 78°F1007.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 16 mi85 min Calm 70°F 1007 hPa70°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi52 min W 5.1 G 6 75°F 1007.6 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 39 mi70 min SSW 14 G 16 72°F 1007.5 hPa (+0.0)71°F
CHTS1 43 mi52 min SSW 5.1 G 8 72°F 79°F1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort County Airport, SC10 mi15 minSSW 57.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F94%1006.4 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC14 mi15 minS 510.00 miFair70°F69°F100%1006.8 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC17 mi14 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F70°F100%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9CalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW6SW8SW8SW5SW4SW7SW6SW5
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1 day agoS7S8S7S6S5SW3W3SW3S4S7SW6S4SW5S3SE6S4S6S3S6S3CalmS6CalmN4
2 days agoS4S4S3S6S6S5S4CalmS7S5S7S8S8S8
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Fripps Inlet, Hunting Island Bridge, St. Helena Sound, South Carolina
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Fripps Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:09 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     7.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.5-0.11.22.94.766.66.35.23.61.80-1-0.90.42.54.76.57.67.875.53.6

Tide / Current Tables for Station Creek, County Landing, South Carolina
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Station Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:15 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     7.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     8.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.4-0.20.92.74.56.17.17.36.64.92.80.6-0.9-10.12.14.46.588.78.36.94.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.