Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 9:10 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 foot at 3 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Mon night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds, becoming S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers.Wed - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 311 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will exit the coast early Monday with a storm system approaching from the west. An active weather pattern will start on Monday with multiple rounds of showers and Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday.

FXUS62 KCHS 121919 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 319 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will exit the coast early Monday with a storm system approaching from the west. An active weather pattern will start on Monday with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Today: An impressive shortwave has now moved off of the coast of New England this afternoon with ageostrophic convergence focused across TN/ NC/ and SC. At the surface, a ridge axis extends through these states with surface high pressure closed off near the FL/ GA border. The jet streak overhead is slightly fractured, with a subtropical jet from OK/ MS/ AL to GA putting SC in a LFQ. This has allowed a rather thick cirrus shield in areas to manifest, but temperatures have only been held down by a degree or two at most. Late this afternoon, a sea breeze will begin to push inland with winds turning from the southeast. No precipitation is forecast.

Tonight: A sea breeze will move inland about a tier of counties or so, before stalling and washing out. Meanwhile, surface high pressure that was over the GA/ FL state line will weaken and start to washout just off of the SC coast early Monday morning. The collapse of the surface high will be due to (1) a departing jet streak and (2) waves of PVA moving overhead. This consistent reinforcement of positive vorticity atop mid-level ridging will allow atmospheric moisture to recover rather quickly across SC with winds backing around from the southeast. No precipitation is expected tonight, but skies will likely be mostly cloudy to overcast with cloud bases lowering. Expect low temperatures mostly around 60 degrees inland with temperatures near 70 degrees at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mid level low initially over the Central Plains Monday morning will shift eastward to the Mississippi Valley through Tuesday, with a series of shortwaves expected to track over the local region ahead of this feature. A surface low takes a similar path, with a warm front lifting north into the region. Moisture returns back to the area with PWats surging to over 1.75 inches, which is well above seasonal climatology. This sets the stage for a period of unsettled weather.

Monday will start dry then rain chances should increase from the southwest through the day and into the evening. Consensus indicates that instability during this time period will remain rather limited, so while thunder will certainly be in play, the severe threat is low. The highest shower/thunderstorm coverage and rain chances will be during the latter half of Monday night and Tuesday when the better forcing arrives. Still uncertainty in the convective evolution and specific timing, but wind shear values will be supportive of storm organization. Instability is in question depending on how earlier convection works out, but current model progs feature the highest CAPE values over southeast Georgia.
Regardless, all areas will need to be watched for stronger to severe storms. Marginal Risk for severe weather from SPC Day 3 Outlook persists. Area-wide rainfall totals throughout the event currently average in the 2-3 inch range, with isolated higher amounts possible. Pockets of heavier rainfall could result in ponding on roadways and minor flooding especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

The bulk of activity should transition offshore through Tuesday night with decreasing rain chances in its wake.

The main upper wave and associated surface reflection will pass across the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday and eventually offshore.
With some upper support and lingering moisture, isolated to perhaps scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible. Outside of convection, winds will become gusty with gusts to around 20-25 mph.
Temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Ridging briefly passes across the region on Thursday with no weather concerns. More unsettled weather is expected to return late week into the weekend as the next low pressure system tracks towards the East Coast. Forecast details still need to be worked out, but regardless, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures through the period are forecast to be near to above normal.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KCHS/ KJZI: VFR conditions currently across the Charleston terminals this afternoon with a thick cirrus shield currently overhead. Surface high pressure has continued to nudge east this afternoon and is centered over the GA/ FL state line. Winds should start to back this afternoon as the high pressure centers south of the Charleston terminals, but this will be relatively short lived though as a sea breeze is forecast to cross both Charleston Terminals between 00 and 02z. No precipitation is forecast today or tonight. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will then approach the Charleston Terminals Monday. For the current TAF package, have started lowering the CIGS for Monday morning.

KSAV: VFR currently at Savannah with surface high pressure centered to the south near the GA/ FL state line. A weak sea breeze will try to push inland across GA, but will likely get hung up near the coast. Overnight, mostly calm winds and no precipitation is forecast. For the current TAF package, have started lowering the CIGS for Monday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible in low clouds and showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon into midweek as a storm system impacts the region.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: Surface high pressure is currently located near the GA/ FL state line and will move offshore this evening.
West winds will gradually turn from the southwest and then south late tonight. A weak sea breeze will form this afternoon with with in the Charleston Harbor gusting 10 to 15 kt. Overnight, winds will be 5 to 10 kt with seas 1 - 2 ft.

Monday through Friday: No concerns over the marine area on Monday.
Winds will increase Monday night into Tuesday and will remain fairly gusty into Wednesday as low pressure tracks towards the East coast.
Seas also build and while it looks fairly marginal at this time, there is potential for a period of Small Craft Advisories over portions of the waters, especially the outer Georgia and Charleston county waters. Conditions improve for Thursday. Next weather system is expected late week into the weekend with conditions currently held below advisory criteria.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fripps Inlet, Hunting Island Bridge, St. Helena Sound, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
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Sun -- 12:45 PM EDT     6.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:03 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
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