Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 7:07 PM Moonrise 2:19 AM   Moonset 1:17 PM

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FXUS65 KTWC 022134 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 234 PM MST Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny, warm, and dry to end the week with breezy afternoons on most days. A dry weather system will bring stronger breezes on Sunday.

DISCUSSION
Abundant sunshine this afternoon with a few mountain cumulus clouds, especially over the White mountains. Afternoon temperatures were relatively similar to yesterday. Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a weak/dry upper low off srn CA cst.

Friday and Saturday will be similar to today temperature-wise with a slight uptick on the winds Saturday as next Pacific system will be along the west coast.

This Pacific system will move inland on Sunday bringing a tighter pressure gradient with resultant stronger southwest winds. At this time looking at 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40-45 mph range which may develop patchy areas of blowing dust. Might need a wind headline for parts of the area on Sunday. Increased fire weather concerns Sunday is addressed in the fire weather section below.

After Sunday, high temperatures will drop 3 to 5 degrees on Monday and then return to the same tune as before, the upper 80s to lower 90s with the typical afternoon breezes for the most of the new week.

AVIATION
Valid through 04/00Z.
SKC through the majority of the forecast period with thin cirrus above 20 kft MSL moving in after 03/21Z from southwest to northeast.
SFC winds this afternoon WSWLY at 10 to 15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts in the late afternoon. After 03/05Z, winds become light and variable through 03/16Z. Wind speeds WSW up to 15 kts after 03/17z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will remain above normal through the remainder of the week. 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph through Saturday. Min RHs in the valleys continue to be in the single digits to the low teens for the lower valleys with values in the teens to lower twenties for the mountains. A dry weather system will be passing on Sunday to bring dry and windy conditions in the afternoon. The combination of dry, windy, and warm conditions will put areas from Sells eastward near critical to critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. Next week, winds will return to the typical afternoon breeziness of 10 to 15 mph.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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