Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:23PM Sunday November 18, 2018 9:04 AM MST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 181010
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
310 am mst Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis Dry conditions with seasonably mild daytime temperatures
during most of the upcoming week. A passing weather system on
thanksgiving day should produce a few showers mainly north of tucson.

Discussion Strong high pressure aloft was centered near the
pacific northwest coast early this morning. A low pressure system
was centered northwest of the upper high and well north of the
northern california coast, or near 34n 137w. Meanwhile, the southern
stream belt of westerlies replete with mainly high level cloudiness
extended from west of baja california northeastward into southeast
arizona.

Somewhat thick cirriform clouds should move eastward across this
forecast area through midday followed by thinning clouds this
afternoon and particularly tonight. A ridge axis aloft Monday will
approach from the west as the aforementioned upper low digs
southeastward toward southern california. Expect mostly sunny skies
Monday followed by partly cloudy skies Monday night into Tuesday.

The 18 00z GFS deterministic solutions and the GEFS eps were similar
with depicting the upper low to open and eject eastward across
central southern arizona Tuesday afternoon. Model soundings continue
to depict the bulk of any moisture of significance with this filling
system will remain above 700 mb. Given modest synoptic scale ascent,
would not be surprised to have virga within southeast arizona
Tuesday. However, any measurable precip should occur east of this
forecast area. Decreasing clouds Tuesday evening followed by clear
skies or mostly clear skies around daybreak Wednesday.

Mainly high level clouds should increase again later Wednesday as an
upper ridge axis moves east of the area, and the next trough
approaches the west coast. Clouds will likely increase from west to
east Wednesday night with mostly cloudy skies prevailing
thanksgiving day as the upper trough advances eastward into the
southwestern conus.

There is need to emphasize that there is now considerable
uncertainty regarding precip potential across southeast arizona on
thanksgiving day and possibly Thursday night. The deterministic gfs
depicts any measurable precip to remain north of this forecast area.

The GEFS depicted considerably different precip solutions amongst
members. However, the largest change was regarding the 18 00z ecmwf
that depicted a markedly more amplified upper trough versus the gfs
and previous ECMWF solutions. If reality, this version of ecmwf
would equate to fairly widespread valley rain mountain snow on
thanksgiving day.

For this forecast issuance, pops were raised just slightly which
translates into a slight chance of showers mainly north of tucson.

This scenario fits well with neighboring wfo's, especially phoenix,
who have raised their numbers slightly. Have opted for precip-free
conditions Thursday night into Friday night in response to wly nwly
flow aloft. Finally, there were fairly considerable model
differences next Saturday (forecast day 7) between GFS ecmwf
regarding the next upper trough moving eastward into the four
corners region. The ECMWF was again deeper slower versus the less
amplified faster gfs. Given forecast uncertainty, have maintained
dry conditions area-wide next Saturday.

Expect seasonably mild temps today followed by a modest warming
trend Monday into Tuesday. A cooling trend is on tap Wednesday into
thanksgiving day, then no noticeable changes in daytime temps Friday
into Saturday.

Aviation Valid through 19 12z.

Mostly broken clouds above 20k ft agl into this afternoon then few
to scattered cirrus this evening into Monday morning. Surface wind
variable in direction mainly under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Dry conditions across much of southeast arizona this
week. However, isolated showers should occur on thanksgiving day
mainly north of tucson. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and
generally under 10 mph. The exception is Monday into Tuesday
morning when east to southeast gusts near 20 mph may occur at times.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Francis
aviation... Gl
fire weather... Gl
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ14 mi75 minESE 410.00 miFair45°F28°F53%1020.7 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi67 minSSE 510.00 miFair47°F23°F39%1018.6 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi72 minSSE 710.00 miFair48°F24°F39%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5SW4SW5SW4SW5Calm5CalmNW6NW6W5SW6SW5SE6SE7S5S7SE4S6S8S7S6S5
1 day agoSE8SE10SE6CalmCalmW3CalmN3CalmE4N6W3S5SE7SE6SE7SE9S7S6SE6S7S7S9S8
2 days agoSE13SE16SE13SE7S5CalmN3N3N3NE5E3SE3S5CalmS5SE7S6S9S8S8S7S7S9S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.