Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:04PM Thursday April 26, 2018 6:33 AM MST (13:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 261120
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
420 am mst Thu apr 26 2018

Synopsis Dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime
temperatures today. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms east of tucson Friday into Saturday. Dry conditions
will return Sunday and continue across much of the area into the
middle of next week. However, a cooling trend will also occur with
gusty winds at times, especially Monday and Tuesday.

Discussion A highly amplified upper pattern prevailed over the
conus and eastern pacific early this morning. A deep upper low was
centered west of the northern california coast vicinity 38n 135w,
and deep low pressure was also centered over eastern arkansas.

Meanwhile, upper ridge axis extended from southern california
northward into the pacific northwest.

Precip-free conditions will occur across southeast arizona through
tonight as the upper ridge axis moves eastward into western new
mexico. However, mid and high level clouds are expected to increase
today into tonight, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across
much of the area by daybreak Friday. As the upper ridge axis moves
into western new mexico, lower level flow by Friday morning will
become increasingly ely sely, especially east of tucson. This lower
level flow regime should translate into increased lower level
moisture primarily east of tucson.

Based on various 26 00z model solutions, have continued with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the new
mexico state line Friday morning. Isolated to scattered coverage of
showers thunderstorms exists Friday afternoon and evening east of
tucson. With this forecast issuance and based on the various 26 00z
models, have opted to remove earlier depictions of a slight chance
of showers tstms for much of the tucson metro area.

However, have maintained a slight chance of showers tstms Friday
afternoon evening for the catalina rincon mountains just northeast
and east of tucson. The 26 00z univ of az wrf-nam and wrf-gfs were
most notable at depicting these mountains for potential shower tstm
initiation Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered coverage of
showers tstms should also occur Saturday generally east of a mount
graham (just southwest of safford) to bisbee line. A slight chance
of showers tstms continues mainly across the white mountains
Saturday evening, then dry conditions area-wide late Saturday night.

By midday Sunday, the deterministic 26 00z gfs ECMWF and their
respective ensembles were quite similar with depicting a dry wly
swly flow aloft regime across this forecast area. The models then
depict a tightening mid-level pressure gradient over the area Monday
into Tuesday as low pressure aloft deepens over the great basin and
southwestern conus.

At this time, appears that precip-free conditions will continue
Monday into Tuesday. However, the main impacts will be gusty mainly
southwest winds especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

These winds in combination with low relative humidity may create
critical fire conditions. Please refer to the fire weather section
in this product for more information. A cooling trend that begins
Sunday will continue Monday into Tuesday.

Thereafter, the gfs ECMWF were nearly identical by midday next
Wednesday with depicting an upper low to be centered over northeast
arizona. These nearly identical solutions is fairly impressive given
next Wednesday is day 7 of this forecast package. At any rate,
although the bulk of precip at this time associated with this upper
low should be north of this forecast area, a slight chance of
showers exists next Wednesday across the eastern mountains, and
mainly across the white mountains. Further cooling next Wednesday
would also translate into high temps that would be several degrees
below normal.

Aviation Valid through 27 12z.

Sct-bkn clouds AOA 20k ft agl becoming bkn-ovc clouds above 20k ft
agl by late this morning. Few-sct clouds at 10-15k ft agl developing
this evening with isolated -tsra -shra possible mainly near the new
mexico state line by daybreak Friday. Surface wind less than 10 kts
and variable in direction this morning and again late tonight.

Surface wind this afternoon and evening swly wly at 7-12 kts with
some gusts to near 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for taf

Fire weather Dry conditions through tonight. There will then be
sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms east of tucson Friday and Saturday.

The main concern Friday into Saturday is thunderstorms capable of
starting fires and producing strong outflow winds, especially in the
higher terrain where development is more likely. The potential
exists Friday and Saturday for an lal 6 event across far eastern
portions of the forecast area. This will be highly dependent upon
moisture availability. That is, will moisture levels be sufficient
to generate wetting rains with the storms that develop? At this
time, wetting rains appear unlikely.

Dry conditions will then prevail Sunday into Tuesday. A slight
chance of shower exists next Wednesday across the white mountains.

20-foot winds of less than 15 mph will occur today. Gusty east to
southeast winds are expected from tucson eastward Friday morning.

There is the potential for gusty thunderstorm outflow winds Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Gusty south to southwest winds during the
afternoon and evening hours will prevail Sunday through Tuesday.

Critical fire conditions may return Monday and Tuesday, particularly
from tucson eastward.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Francis
aviation... Zell
fire weather... Zell
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ14 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair57°F26°F31%1014.9 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi96 minSE 710.00 miFair60°F24°F25%1009.9 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi41 minSE 610.00 miFair63°F30°F29%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6W8NW3W7NW11N8NW5NW5CalmSW6S6E5S7S6SE5SE7S5
1 day agoSE4SE4--------W8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.