Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:52PM Monday October 15, 2018 3:21 AM MST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:37PMMoonset 11:03PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 150246
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
745 pm mst Sun oct 14 2018

Synopsis Cool overnight lows around 3 to 7 degrees below average.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will return Monday into
Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions later this week before a few showers
return next weekend. Daytime temperatures well below seasonal
normals into midweek then modestly warmer next weekend.

Discussion Satellite imagery shows mainly scattered low mid
clouds (locally broken) hanging in across much of the eastern two
thirds of forecast area early this evening. The exception was over
central western pima county where most of the cloud cover has
dissipated. The ktwc 181015 00z sounding indicates drying at all
levels versus the 12z ktwc sounding, but especially so above 700mb.

Pw values on the 00z sounding still at 0.75", which matches up well
with the blended total precip water imagery - where values range
from 0.50 inches over the white mountains, to nearly 1 inch over the
far western deserts. Low temperatures tonight Monday morning across
southeast arizona will bottom out 3-7 degrees below normal and
around 5 degrees below normal in the tucson metro area.

Overall, expecting a dry night across most of the forecast area
tonight with arizona between systems. There are some single digit
pops over far eastern northeast portions of the forecast area, with
just a stray shower sprinkles possible. Precipitation chances are
expected to increase through the day on Monday as the next piece of
energy cuts off and retrogrades southwest through base of the trough
across the southwestern united states. Overall, the forecast package
looks to be in good shape. No updates this evening. For more
information on the latter periods of the forecast, please refer to
the prev discussion section below.

Aviation Valid through 16 00z.

Isolated -shra N and W of ktus Monday after 15 16z. Otherwise, cloud
decks generally 4k-8k ft agl. Surface wind variable in direction
less than 10 kts thru 15 15z then turning ely sely 8-17 kts.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Dry conditions tonight into Monday morning.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return Monday into
Tuesday. Dry conditions Wednesday through Friday except for a slight
chance of showers across the white mountains. There is a slight
chance of showers especially from tucson eastward next weekend. 20-
foot winds today will be terrain driven mainly under 15 mph. Some
gusty east winds developing Monday east of tucson, then gusty east
to southeast winds should occur at times Tuesday into next weekend.

Prev discussion Our pacific low pressure system has opened up as
it lifts into the base of the regional trough with showers drying up
this afternoon. The 12z ktwc sounding was still holding on to 1 inch
precipitable water, but starting to show some drying between 500-
700mb. Latest cira layered precipitable water trends and low to mid
goes16 water vapor channels hint at a continuation of this trend, so
we're still on track for partial clearing tonight. Tonight will be
on the chilly side. Upper 30s possible in coldest eastern valleys
(including portions of sulphur springs valley in cochise county),
and would be even colder if we weren't still holding on to a little
lower level and boundary layer moisture.

Reinforcing energy is expected to dip down from the north over the
next 36 hours and is then expected to lose higher latitude support
as the main trough lifts into the northern plains and high pressure
builds into the pacific northwest. The resulting cut-off will linger
around arizona into mid to late week. That will keep a few showers
around (especially Monday afternoon into Tuesday), while also
keeping temperatures well below average. We might actually sneak in
our first freeze for eastern valley locations Wednesday morning, so
some potential agricultural concerns with that.

An unsettled pattern continues next weekend with some signs of a rex
block with a significant weakness in the flow affecting arizona for
another chance of showers.

Beyond that, well, we might be taking another look at the tropics.

22e just formed southwest of mexico and there's another area of
interest southeast of that. Both the GFS and ECMWF seem to think we
aren't done with tropical influences in our forecast.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Zell
prev discussion... Meyer g
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi84 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F53°F85%1013.3 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi29 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6------------------CalmCalmNW4NW4NW4--NW4CalmSW4NW4----NW4NW4
1 day agoE10------------------E10E5E4CalmNE3SE4E8--W7------N4Calm
2 days agoSW8------------------E7--SE3SE7NE8SE7SE7--E18
G24
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.