Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 1:37 AM   Moonset 12:00 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 725 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Thu - NE winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Fri - SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 725 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will extend west across the southeast u.s. Into next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 012337 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 737 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will extend west across the Southeast U.S. into next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Early this evening: Diurnal sea breeze forced convection has dissipated and the rest of the overnight is expected to be dry.
The main forecast challenge overnight will concern fog and stratus potential. Model guidance is trending pretty aggressive with fog development and coverage, beginning just after midnight and quickly spreading across most of the forecast area. This make sense given good low-level moisture, light to calm winds, and broad subsidence aloft. Given that we saw at least some dense fog last night across the interior, it seems plausible similar type fog can be expected tonight since we have not any real airmass change. The main difference will be location.
Guidance favors fog development first across the Charleston Tri-County, which should then spread across nearly all of southeast South Carolina and into portions of southeast Georgia along the Savannah River. We also feel like the dense fog potential is high enough to warrant introduction into the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Lows are forecast to be near 60 away from the immediate coast and the mid 60s along the coastal corridor.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thursday and Friday: Strong subtropical ridging aloft will dominate the Southeast U.S. both days with the area located along the western flanks of Atlantic surface high pressure centered well offshore. While low-level moisture will remain somewhat seasonable with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, broad subsidence aloft and the resulting lack of any meaningful mixed- layered instability will support a mainly dry forecast through the period. A rouge shower can not be completely ruled out Friday afternoon ahead of the sea breeze as the upper ridge shifts offshore and mid-level capping weakens a bit, but chances for anything measurable will likely remain below the mentionable threshold of 20%. A few showers/tstms could drift into into the far inland areas from the west Friday evening as weak shortwave energy passes by to the north and west. Forecast soundings at KRBW, KJYL and KMHP show a steadily weakening mid- level cap during this time as the upper ridge shifts farther out into the Atlantic. Slight chance pops around 20% were maintained across the interior to account for this. Highs will warm into the mid-upper 80s each afternoon away from the beaches with overnight lows dropping into the mid 60s well inland to near 70 at the beaches.

Saturday: The risk for scattered showers/tstms will increase on Saturday as a weak mid-level weakness settles across the Southeast States. Forcing for ascent will remain fairly weak and ill-defined in the vicinity of the weakness per model omega vertical cross-sections, but weak to moderate instability coupled with low-level convergence near a fairly progressive sea breeze circulation and potential convective outflow interactions would support a slightly more active day compared to the previous few where subtropical ridging dominated aloft.
20-60% pops were maintained Saturday with the highest gridded pops clustered well inland ahead of the sea breeze. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The pattern will be more reminiscent of summer next week. The weak mid-level weakness over the Southeast U.S. will quickly begin to fill and push offshore Saturday night into Sunday with broad, subtropical ridging dominating aloft thereafter. The region will remain along the western periphery of Atlantic surface high pressure centered well offshore. This pattern will support a more typical, diurnal convective pattern with activity generally concentrating along/ahead of the afternoon seas breeze with the best rain chances concentrating in the Saturday and Sunday periods with the weakness aloft. Weak shortwave energy is progged to pass by to the north on Monday, but most of the forcing with this feature looks to remain over the Pee Dee into central/eastern North Carolina. Temperatures will slowly rise through the period, peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
For the 00z TAF period, fog and stratus is the primary forecast challenge. The setup and model guidance suggests that IFR conditions are likely at the TAF sites, and that dense fog will be possible as well.

KCHS and KJZI: Fog and stratus development is expected to begin in the early morning hours and we have started IFR conditions by around 06-07z. We have then included a TEMPO group from 08-12z to account for dense fog, though it could linger past 12z for a little bit. A return to VFR should occur by around 13-14z.
Currently we are not expecting any shower or thunderstorm development in the afternoon.

KSAV: Current thinking is that fog will develop to the northeast of the terminal and then gradually spread in in the pre-dawn hours. The lowering of the flight category is expected to happen later than at KCHS and KJZI, and we have timed in MVFR conditions by 09z. Confidence is potentially dense fog is lower, so for now we have kept the 10-12z TEMPO group with just IFR conditions. VFR should return by around 13z and prevail thereafter with no current concerns for shower or thunderstorm development in the afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in overnight/early morning fog and stratus. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.

MARINE
Tonight: Surface high pressure and relaxed pressure gradient will remain in control across the coastal waters resulting in overall lighter winds. Sea breeze push later this afternoon will keep onshore winds slightly elevated until early evening with speeds of 10 to 15 knots. Winds 10 knots or less anticipated tonight. Late tonight there will be the formation of some fog over land areas, some of which could move into the Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic waters very close to shore.

Thursday through Sunday: There are no major concerns through the period. A broad southerly flow will prevail through the weekend with the local waters located along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore.
Typical sea breeze wind enhancements are expected each afternoon along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor. Seas will generally remain 3 ft or less through the period.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Battery Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:22 AM EDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:23 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:55 PM EDT     7.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Capers Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:10 AM EDT     7.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:43 PM EDT     6.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Capers Creek, Cowen Creek, St. Helena Island, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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