Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:22 AM   Moonset 5:47 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds.Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 341 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 061934 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 334 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Short-wave trough axis has progressed into central Georgia this afternoon with the parent short-wave circulation moving along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Latest SPC analysis reveals 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE across the forecast area away from the coast. Pockets of convection have developed across eastern Georgia into South Carolina with some convection finally getting going across parts of the forecast area...particularly through the tri-county region. Nothing too impressively organized with the best looking convection thus far in eastern Georgia and along the Charleston/Berkeley county border.

Parent short-wave circulation will migrate toward the mid Atlantic with modest troughing edging into the Carolinas/ northern Georgia tonight. Despite the general lack of precip coverage across the forecast area thus far, we still think that convection coverage will increase late this afternoon into the evening as the upper trough axis continues to push into the region in tandem with outflows from ongoing convection. We plan to maintain higher pops late this afternoon and into the evening as that unfolds.

Strong-severe storm possibilities: Severe weather threat remains on the low side. Locally heavier rain is the main threat with slower moving convection. Mid level flow and resultant shear profiles remain on the marginal side through the peak heating cycle although will increase a touch heading into the evening with 0-6Km bulk shear values climbing to around 20 knots while mid level lapse rates remain generally under 6C/Km.
Thus a briefly stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out with hail the main threat.

Convection will runs its course through the evening. There might be some additional lingering convection moving through parts of the Carolinas late evening and overnight, although overall precip chances appear low through the overnight. A mild night is on tap with lows in the middle 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday through Wednesday: Mid and upper level ridging will build across the region on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. At the surface, the pattern will look very summer-like with high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic extending back to the west and into the region. The main story during this period will be increasing low- level thickness values and likely the warmest temperatures of the year so far (see Climate section below). Highs are forecast to reach the low 90s away from the immediate coast each day, with even some mid 90s possible for Wednesday. The good news is that dew points should mix out each afternoon, keeping heat index values only a few degrees higher than the ambient air temperatures. Thanks to the ridge and warm profiles, the atmosphere becomes less supportive of diurnal convection each day. The forecast is dry, other than a small area of slight chances in place for portions of the Charleston Tri- County region early on Tuesday.

Thursday: Mostly a continuation of the warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs again forecast into the low to mid 90s. The main change is that the ridge flattens out aloft and a strong cold front will approach the region from the northwest. While the bulk of the day appears to be dry, by as early as the late afternoon upstream thunderstorms could develop and begin to move into the forecast area. The environment ahead of these storms could be supportive of a notable severe weather threat with CAPE in excess of 2,000 J/kg and deep layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots. The timing of the severe potential remains a bit uncertain, but the area remains within a 15% threat area on SPC's day 4 severe weather outlook. The highest rain chances are across the interior, 50-60 percent, ranging to just 20s along portions of the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The Thursday night and Friday portion of the period remains quite uncertain and will depend on the progression of the cold front through the area. Some guidance would suggest that the front does not clear the forecast area and another round of convection could pass through while other guidance pushes the front further south and feature a much drier and quieter solution. Either way, the front will be offshore by Friday night and a notable airmass change is in store for the weekend. The forecast is dry and temperatures are expected to be down to right around normal for mid May, and this should continue into early next week as well.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions persist at all terminals through Tuesday morning.

KCHS/KJZI: Scattered showers have developed in the tri-county area and will be impacting mainly CHS over the next several hours with a higher probability for thunder as well. Bulk of convection will likely remain inland from JZI through the afternoon.

At KSAV, a few showers are possible through the afternoon hours with a better risk for showers/thunder late this afternoon into this evening.

Precip coverage diminishes later this evening and overnight.
There could be some ground fog at the terminals toward morning, although fog probabilities are too low to include in the forecast for now.

Primarily VFR. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday through Friday.

MARINE
At the sfc, the pattern will feature high pressure from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a warm front across the Ohio River Valley. This pattern should yield south-southwest winds across the marine zones. Speeds are forecast to favor values between 10-15 kts today and tonight. Seas should range between 2-3 ft through the near term period. Beyond 50 nm, seas may build to 4 ft late tonight across the outer GA waters.

Tuesday through Saturday: For the first half of the period, the pattern will be quite similar to a summertime pattern with the local waters sitting under the western edge of high pressure over the Atlantic. The result will be south to southwest flow that surges closer to the land/sea interface each afternoon and evening. For the late part of the week, this will change as a cold front approaches on Thursday and then passes through by Friday. This will support stronger winds, and possibly necessitate Small Craft Advisories for portions of the waters. Behind the front Friday night and into the weekend, winds will be northwesterly though not as strong and any ongoing advisories should end.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The upcoming New Moon (May 8) and recent Perigee (May 5) will lead to elevated astronomical tides over the next few days. Minor coastal flooding is possible along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties, including Downtown Charleston, during the evening high tides through Thursday.

CLIMATE
May 7: KCHS: 93/1977 KSAV: 94/1977

May 8: KCHS: 93/1986 KSAV: 96/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Battery Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:54 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT     8.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:48 PM EDT     9.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Lucy Point Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:50 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:04 PM EDT     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     7.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lucy Point Creek entrance, Morgan River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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