Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:08 PM   Moonset 1:49 AM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 645 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - W winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 645 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 162259 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 659 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The sea breeze boundary has certainly struggled to move onshore today with a deep northwest flow through the troposphere. Early this evening that boundary ran from just east of KCHS to Edisto Island, continuing to Hilton Head island and near Tybee Island To the south that feature was still non-existent. As we go through the evening the sea breeze falls dissipates and a relaxed gradient sets in. Winds will quickly decouple and become light or calm, and will set up decent radiational cooling. Areas of extensive stratocumulus will steadily erode and skies will become mostly clear. Late tonight5 there will be convective debris clouds from the MCS in southeast Texas and western Louisiana. But we have plenty of time to get low temperatures down to the lower and middle 60s far inland, upper 60s to lower 70s over much of the coastal counties. There are hints of some late night fog, but given that most places won't get to their cross- over temperatures, this won't be anything more than ground fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
A potent shortwave will spread extensive mid and high clouds over the area on Friday. Nevertheless, warm thicknesses should support high temps pushing into the mid/upper 80s. Some drier air is expected to mix down across inland areas with surface dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s Friday afternoon. Much of the guidance including synoptic scale models and CAMs show a decaying MCS moving into our far western zones late Friday afternoon. The best instability is forecast to remain just south of the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening.

A warm front will lift north through the area Friday night, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through the night. Saturday an increasing SW flow will bring >1.7" PWATs into the area ahead of a longwave upper trough. There are some hints that after warm frontal precipitation lifts north of the area by mid Saturday morning, much of the day could be relatively rain-free. A series of shortwaves will then move through late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, bringing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance for severe thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon during which the strongest instability will be present. Most guidance shows at least 1500 J/kg SBCAPE across the area and 50 kt bulk shear. This would support some storm organization with a damaging wind threat. Forecast LIs <-7C would also support large hail.

Plenty of moisture is expected to remain over the area through Sunday as a cold front drops in from the NW, then the upper trough axis swings through. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to persist through the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms could be possible due to decent instability ahead of the front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday due to moisture and forcing on the western periphery of the developing surface low off the NC/SC coast. Temperatures will be considerably cooler due to cold advection as high pressure builds from the north. The cooler weather will be short-lived as the surface high shifts southeast and a southerly flow redevelops. A few showers will be possible Wednesday as a shortwave moves through.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Saturday. We'll maintain watch for some ground fog closer to dawn on Friday, and any convection late in the day looks to stay west of the terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to all terminals Saturday through Sunday as a low pressure system impacts the region.

MARINE
No marine concerns tonight. Winds will be mainly S or SW at no more than 10 or 12 kt, with seas just 1 or 2 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Conditions through the period are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Southerly flow will persist through Sunday, then the winds turn northerly behind a cold front early next week. Wind gusts could approach 25 kt late Sunday night into Monday morning with an initial burst of cold advection, mainly over the Charleston County nearshore waters.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Battery Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:25 AM EDT     7.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 PM EDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Capers Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:56 PM EDT     6.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:46 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Capers Creek, Cowen Creek, St. Helena Island, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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