Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel Bay, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:21PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 7:10 AM EST (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 638 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of rain this morning, then rain likely this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ300 638 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will pass off the southeast coast today and tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday before another low pressure system moves up the coast Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will shift through the area Saturday night, followed by dry high pressure through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel Bay, SC
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location: 32.49, -80.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 211143
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
643 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass off the southeast coast today and
tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday
before another low pressure system moves up the coast Wednesday
night and Thursday. A cold front will shift through the area
Saturday night, followed by dry high pressure through the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Today: aloft, the day will begin with a southern stream trough
axis that extends southward across the lower mississippi valley
and into the central gulf of mexico. Embedded within this trough
is shortwave energy that will eject to the northeast pass
through georgia and the carolinas in the afternoon hours. As it
does, a surface wave will take shape off or along the southeast
coast and lift northeastward into the evening hours. The main
question will be how close to the coast will this feature be and
how far inland will precipitation associated with it extend.

Low level isentropic ascent will provide the low level forcing
while right entrance region dynamics of a strengthening 300 mb
jet develop over the region. The models are at odds regarding
the proximity of the wave to the coast and the extent of
precipitation, with the ECMWF and GFS being the drier solutions
relative to the hi-res models such as the hrrr and rap. The
forecast favors the hi-res solutions and features 30-50 percent
chances mainly right along the coast. Locations well inland will
mostly stay dry, while the bulk of the forcing and associated
precipitation will be centered over the coastal waters. The
timing seems to favor the mid to late afternoon hours for the
best rain chances. Overcast skies will prevail today and
temperatures will range in the upper 60s for most areas. Further
south near the altamaha some low 70s will be possible.

Tonight: the mid level shortwave energy, upper level jet
dynamics, and developing surface low will quickly move to the
northeast in the first part of the overnight. Pop's will quickly
diminish and the bulk of the period is expected to be dry. The
main forecast issue overnight will be the potential for
fog stratus. Conditions appear to be supportive of stratus build
down and model guidance is really hitting it hard with several
solutions showing widespread dense fog. Not quite ready to go
that far with it, but have introduced patchy fog to most areas. Lows
are forecast to range from around 50 well inland to the
mid upper 50s at the coast.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
An upper shortwave over the northern gulf of mexico on
Wednesday will gradually shift east and then northeast over the
local area Thursday into Friday. Dry high pressure expected to
linger for much of Wednesday. Then, surface low pressure will
develop over northern florida and move northeast Wednesday night
through Thursday night. There are still somewhat significant
model differences regarding the inland extent of the rain shield
as the low passes off the coast. However, the trend has been
toward slightly greater QPF over coastal areas with at least
scattered showers extending across inland areas by Thursday. We
thus increased pops during this period though kept the highest
values over the waters and coastal sections.

Precipitation should taper off Thursday night as the upper
shortwave swings through. Temps on Friday will rebound several
degrees due to decreasing sky cover.

Long term Friday night through Monday
A deep upper trough will swing through from the northwest over
the weekend, pushing a dry cold front through the area Saturday
night. Cold advection in its wake will result in below-normal
temperatures, especially Monday. However, as an upper ridge
builds and the surface high shifts east, temps will rebound by
Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
The main forecast issue today is the potential for rain to
impact the terminals and bring with it temporary MVFR
conditions. Have maintained the tempo groups at both sites, just
moved them an hour later based on recent runs of the rap.

Overnight, rain will clear out and the forecast issue becomes
increasing potential for fog and stratus. Model guidance is
quite aggressive with it, suggesting widespread dense fog.

Conditions appear supportive of stratus build down processes,
but not quite ready to go with widespread ifr or worse
conditions. Have kept the forecast MVFR for now starting around
06z and introduced some light fog. However, it is starting to
look like the potential for ifr conditions is rising.

Extended aviation outlook: MVFR ceilings could persist through
much of Wednesday morning before lifting. Another round of
flight restrictions is expected late Wednesday night through
Thursday night as low pressure moves up the coast.

Marine
Through tonight: high pressure will begin the day extending
across inland areas with a weak coastal trough over the local
waters. Late today, a surface wave will pass either through or
near the local waters and push off to the northeast overnight.

Winds are expected to primarily be easterly today, becoming more
variable and light this evening as the surface wave passes.

Then late tonight, winds will become northerly through sunrise
Wednesday. Winds will be strongest today, generally in the 10-15
knot range. Then overnight, speeds will decrease and become
5-10 knots. Seas will be 2-4 feet out to 20 nm and up to 5 feet
beyond.

A persistent northeast flow will occur Wednesday through Friday
as high pressure builds from the west and a low pressure system
moves up the southeast coast. The tightest gradient is expected
on Thursday as the surface low moves through. We anticipate the
eventual need for small craft advisories for most waters
Thursday into Thursday night.

The next surge will occur late Saturday night into Sunday
behind a dry cold front as cold air advection expands over the
waters. At this point the best chance for small craft advisory
conditions will be over the offshore ga waters where water
temperatures are warmer.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Bsh jrl
marine... Bsh jrl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 20 mi86 min N 1.9 49°F 1021 hPa47°F
41033 26 mi63 min NNE 7.8 G 16 56°F 61°F1020.6 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 32 mi41 min ENE 8 G 11 58°F 61°F1020.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 51 mi71 min NNE 9.9 G 11 56°F 1022 hPa (+0.0)52°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC5 mi15 minNE 510.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1021.1 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC11 mi16 minNE 67.00 miOvercast52°F48°F88%1021 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC20 mi21 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F51°F88%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from NBC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE8E7
G15
NE7E6E5E4E6E7SE4CalmCalmNE4NE5--NE4NE6NE7N4N5N6N5NE6NE5
1 day ago----------------------W4NW9NW6--------------------
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4S7S8
G19
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G16
S7S7S7S6--------------------

Tide / Current Tables for RR. Bridge, Hall Island, South Carolina
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RR. Bridge
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Tue -- 04:45 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:12 AM EST     8.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:26 PM EST     7.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.35.842.20.90.61.43.15.16.98.28.88.57.45.83.820.80.923.85.56.97.7

Tide / Current Tables for North Dawson Landing, Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina
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North Dawson Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:31 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:07 PM EST     8.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:11 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.66.85.43.61.90.70.71.73.35.26.888.48.16.95.33.41.60.81.12.33.95.56.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.