Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Canton, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:08PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 12:32 AM CDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 11:47PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canton, MS
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location: 32.5, -89.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 170214 aaa
afdjan
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
914 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018

Update
Updated for evening discussion.

Discussion
Evening update discussion:
perturbed northwest flow in the mid and upper levels of the
troposphere have juxtaposed with favorable 850mb thetae advection
from the west (and plenty of atmospheric moisture and instability)
to deliver numerous showers and storms late this afternoon into
this evening across the forecast area. Since this afternoon the
most vigorous convective activity has shown a tendency to
gradually "back-build" to the west, toward best mentioned 850mb
thetae plume, and now a vigorous cluster of storms producing
torrential rainfall is just west of the ms river in NE la. There
has been enough low to mid layer wind shear (10-15 kts) to loosely
organize some storms into clusters and the severe weather
potential has not been zero, but also far from high. We have had
several flooding reports since this afternoon as the loose
organization of convection, and tendency to "back-build" to the
west into better moisture instability, occasionally has created a
scenario of training thunderstorms. This potential for
concentrated heavy rainfall could still remain, in at least very
isolated fashion, through the remainder of the night. However, it
does appear the majority of the showers and storms will be
starting to wind down after a cascading cluster of storms in NE la
plays itself out before midnight. For the update, I left 20 to 30
percent chances of rain going late tonight into tomorrow morning
to cover the potential of hard-to-predict re-redevelopment
occurring along residual boundaries. As alluded to, there does not
appear to be enough potential for hazardous weather on more than
an extremely isolated basis overnight to warrant inclusion in the
hwo graphics, at least at this point. Of course we will be
monitoring closely. Bb
prior discussion below:
rest of today through Tuesday: good coverage of showers and
storms will continue to exist through the afternoon and evening
east of i-55, while isolated storm coverage will continue to exist
to the west. The aforementioned coverage of storms and clouds has
helped to keep temperatures well below heat advisory criteria
where the better coverage exists. However, criteria is being met
or exceeded in locations along and west of the ms river where less
cloud and storm coverage exists. The heat advisory will continue
until 00z in these locations.

Nw flow aloft will remain the primary upper flow pattern through
tonight and into tomorrow. Disturbances embedded in this flow
pattern will result in increased storm chances through the short
term period. The region will remain under the proverbial gun as
disturbances continue to drop in from the NW overnight and into
tomorrow. The best coverage of storms will exist as we get into
the peak heating times of tomorrow. Like today, some storms could
become strong with wind damage as the main threat.

Late night early morning rain storms will keep the region from
warming as fast as we have been the last few days. Heat was left
out of the hwo for tomorrow as the clouds and rain will make it
difficult to warm quickly enough to get heat index values above
100 degrees, especially east of the ms river. Some isolated
locations along and west of the river could see heat index values
just above 100 if they remain cloud free long enough. Jpm3
Tuesday night through Monday: come Tuesday evening a weak cold
front is expected to be dropping into the northern portions of our
cwa. Models still differ on how far south the front will get
before it stalls. Convection is expected to still see a distinct
diurnal trend and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating but
the frontal boundary will still help prolong rain chances well
into the night. By Wednesday morning the large mid level ridge
will be centered over the southwest CONUS while upper level
troughing wl be over the eastern conus. This wl result in
northwest flow aloft over our CWA and atop the stalled frontal
boundary. A subtle shortwave within the northwest flow aloft looks
to combine with daytime heating and the stalled front to result in
a greater coverage of storms Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The
rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs
close to 90f. Normal highs run in the lower 90s. Mid level ridging
is expected to begin building back into the region from the west
Thursday and the nearly diffuse stalled front will drift back
north of our cwa. Temperatures in our west will top out in the mid
90s while humidity increases again. This will lead to peak heat
index values near 105f. Friday the mid level ridge will continue
to strengthen across our CWA while a large closed low tracks from
the northern plains to over northern great lakes region. Friday
still looks to be the hottest day with afternoon highs topping
out close to 100f in our far western zones. With high humidity
back across our cwa, heat stress will become more of and issue fro
a larger portion of our cwa. A heat advisory will likely be needed
Friday for at least the western zones. There remain differences in
the models with the progression of the closed low and the strength
of the mid level ridge to our west. A cold front associated with
the closed low looks to drop into our CWA during the weekend. Rain
chances associated with this front are expected to be greatest
over east mississippi. This may limit heat stress in the east
while more oppressive heat continues in the west. 22

Aviation
00z TAF discussion:
heavy rain and thunderstorms will bring ifr MVFR conditions to
hks jan through approximately 1 utc this evening. Other, more
scattered, showers and embedded thunderstorms will have potential
to affect the rest of TAF sites through the evening, and possibly
even lingering into the into the overnight hours in a few spots.

The temporarily active weather pattern promoting lots of somewhat
chaotic thunderstorm activity will continue through tomorrow. The
coverage of storms will be highest in the afternoon hours, but
chance of negative impact will be far more than zero through
tomorrow evening in all areas, at all times. Sub-vfr conditions
should mostly be confined to areas of heavy downpours and
thunderstorms. Bb

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 73 91 74 91 72 48 41 47
meridian 71 90 74 92 27 64 41 47
vicksburg 75 92 75 91 77 47 37 39
hattiesburg 72 90 74 91 32 57 46 57
natchez 75 91 75 90 36 36 35 42
greenville 74 92 74 90 33 47 45 35
greenwood 73 92 74 90 45 49 42 35

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Jpm3 22 bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jackson, Jackson International Airport, MS14 mi39 minW 410.00 miFair74°F73°F97%1016.1 hPa
Jackson, Hawkins Field Airport, MS19 mi40 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from JAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE3S3S3S4S4S3SW3W4W5W8W8NW9SE4S5S9SE14
G18
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G21
S3S6W8S5S4W4
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5W6W3NW6NW8W9W5CalmN4SE9SE9SE8SE7S5S3S4
2 days agoCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm3SW5SW5N5NW4N6W5W5E6NW8S3SW6N3CalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.