Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 8:47 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 110740 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Today & Tonight..

Today: RAP/water vapor analysis indicate two shortwaves moving through the Great Lakes & another lead wave moving off the Carolinas, while cold core low is somewhat cutoff over the southwestern CONUS. Shortwave ridging remains to the west over the TX Panhandle, with dry northwesterly flow & strong subsidence remaining as sfc high is progged to drop southeast into the Gulf Coast region. There is some increased isentropic ascent in the 320- 325Ke (Theta E) layer, streaming broad mid-level cloudiness across the area, especially along & south of the I-20 corridor. Where any clouds are thin, rare views of the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)
are possible, driven by a "G5 Extreme" category geomagnetic storm.
Reports have come in even as far south as the Gulf Coast to even southern FL. Seasonable lows remain possible, in the mid-upper 50s in the northeastern half while near 60 degrees in the southwestern half of the region. As mid-level ridge builds eastward, isentropic ascent should decrease & clouds should thin. High temps will be seasonable in the low-mid 80s with decreased humidity.

Tonight: As the longwave pattern shifts east, shortwave ridge will build into the Ozarks & sfc high will shift eastward. Building moist advection will increase PWs near normal, while slightly higher in the southwest. Expect mid-high level cloudiness to spread across all areas. Seasonable lows, in the low 60s southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor to mid 60s to the northwest, are expected. /DC/

Sunday night through Friday night...A warm front will begin to push north over the area Sunday into Sunday night and with increasing moisture, PWATS will climb to around 1.8 inches during this time frame. Widespread showers/storms will develop and move into the area Sunday night and move across the area through Monday.
Currently it looks like the primary threat will be heavy rainfall with models currently suggesting 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. Will begin to advertise this potential with a limited graphic. Currently SPC has not outlooked our area, but with decent flow/instability a strong to isolated severe storm looks possible and this will have to continue to be monitored. Expect the bulk of the storms to move east of the area through morning into the afternoon hours on Monday. We will get a bit of a break Monday afternoon into the evening, but another short wave/cold front will approach the area Monday evening, with another round of storms Monday evening into the overnight hours. Showers will continue to be possible into Tuesday, as the main upper trough moves across the area.

High pressure and dry conditions return briefly on Wednesday into Thursday, but yet another strong short wave is on the horizon. As high pressure shifts east the flow will once again turn around with increasing moisture Wednesday night into Thursday. A series of short waves will move across the area on Thursday, with a strong short wave/cold front moving across the area Thursday night into Friday. More heavy rainfall and the possibility of severe will be possible through this period./15/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites the next 24 hours, with northerly winds up to 10mph & brief higher gusts. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 81 63 78 63 / 0 0 10 60 Meridian 82 60 81 61 / 0 0 0 40 Vicksburg 82 64 78 63 / 0 10 10 70 Hattiesburg 83 63 82 64 / 0 0 10 50 Natchez 82 64 78 63 / 0 10 20 70 Greenville 83 66 81 65 / 0 0 10 70 Greenwood 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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