Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 1:10 AM   Moonset 11:09 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 301818 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 218 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

At a glance:

- Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon

- Warmer and drier tomorrow

A shortwave mid-level trough and associated (atrophying) surface front are progged to sweep across the Southeast through very late tonight. For areas along and north of I-85, thunderstorm chances are likely to be negligible for the remainder of the day, as "new" cumulus formation in the wake of morning rainfall has been slow and sparse. Best chances to see an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon are for areas east of a line extending from Columbus to Macon to Athens, where most favorable overlap of meager (1000-1500 J/kg)
SBCAPE and lapse rates is located. Weak kinematics do not support development of severe weather, but ponding on roads and gusty winds are possible in any storms that form. Through the morning, portions of north Georgia received as much as 9 tenths of an inch (with locally higher amounts just over an inch) within the heavier band of precipitation. For the remainder of the day, an additional quarter to a half of an inch of rainfall is forecast, as subsequent showers and storms will be patchier in coverage.
Highs today will be lower north of I-20, owing to increased cloud cover and early coverage of showers and storms, topping out in the upper-70s to near 80. To the south, expect temperatures to surge into the low-to mid-80s.

Low-end chances for showers will linger until late tonight across southeast central Georgia. Overnight lows will be relatively warm, in the 50s to lower-60s. Fog development is likely in the wake of precipitation for a few hours preceding and following daybreak on Wednesday. Be cautious on the morning commute.

Expect clear and drier conditions tomorrow with surface high pressure filling in behind the front. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s areawide, and near-90 across our far southern tier.

96

LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return late in the week into the weekend, with continued warm temperatures.

An upper level ridge will build over the area on Thursday, then pivot SE on Friday. Thursday is expected to be dry across the area.
This is also expected to be the warmest day of the period, although Friday will be nearly as warm. High temperatures both days will soar well into the 80s away from the mountains, with some 90+ readings possible, particularly S of Macon and Columbus. These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

As the upper ridge shifts SE and weakens on Friday, a short wave will moves NE across the OH Valley and Great Lakes region. The combination of the approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the area (with the best chances across N and N central GA). With the fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Patchy lingering MVFR (and lower) obs will continue to lift to SCT VFR for the remainder of the aftn. TSRA chcs too low for TAF mention for northern TAF sites given weak cu in wake of AM precip, but isolated SHRA is psbl thru 00Z. Winds briefly E at 6-8kts will shift back W/NW by 20Z. AM IFR vsbys in FG/BR likely between 09-14Z.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 57 85 58 87 / 40 0 0 10 Atlanta 60 86 61 86 / 10 0 0 10 Blairsville 51 81 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 55 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 88 62 90 / 10 0 0 10 Gainesville 57 84 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 60 87 60 89 / 20 10 10 10 Rome 56 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 58 86 58 88 / 10 0 0 10 Vidalia 63 87 64 89 / 50 10 10 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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