Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM   Moonset 3:26 PM

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FXUS64 KSHV 041737 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1237 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered convection is finally developing across mainly our northern and southern zones, with very little so far across the Interstate 20 corridor. Additional thunderstorm development is likely, but a downward trend is expected by mid to late afternoon as a shortwave trough moves east of the Mississippi River and weak shortwave ridging replaces it. There is sufficient instability and deep layer shear to support a threat for marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts into the afternoon. However, the severe weather threat should remain rather limited.

PoPs were adjust and increased across much of the area given the ongoing development. Satellite imagery shows quite a few breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed many locations to warm very quickly this morning. High temperatures for this afternoon were also raise by several degrees areawide. Increased cloud cover later this afternoon should slow the rate of warming.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Pretty quiet this morning for a change with plentiful high cloud cover present from anvil blowoff from storms early Friday evening across Central Texas. The cirrus is thin enough such that we are seeing some radiational fog across our eastern half. This should mix out by mid morning and while patchy dense fog will be possible, it does not appear to be widespread enough to warrant any advisory this morning.

A wedge of drier air has settled in across the I-20 Corridor in the form of PWATS near or slightly below one inch from NE TX into N LA. While this moisture will recover somewhat by afternoon, it should result in less precip coverage areawide and thus have backed off NBM pops slightly, more in the range of slight chance/chance variety tied to daytime heating. Whatever storm coverage we see this afternoon should dissipate quickly with the loss of daytime heating. We then await a much stronger disturbance poised to impact our region late tonight and through the day Sunday.

This disturbance, embedded in southwesterly flow aloft, will eject out of the Tx Hill Country this evening, moving rapidly towards the Piney Woods of NE TX into the Middle Red River Valley of SE OK by 12z Sun. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will accompany this disturbance overnight with a pretty tight pop gradient after midnight, ranging from categorical pops across NE TX, SE OK and extreme SW AR to slight chance pops across our far eastern zones. Marginal Threat of Severe Thunderstorms will exist across our northwest half after midnight as the decaying MCS makes good progress into our region prior to 12z Sun. Expanded categorical pops eastward across all but our extreme eastern zones Sun Morning as the decaying system continues moving east and with the atmosphere likely worked over Sunday Morning, backed pops back to high chance variety across most areas by Sunday Afternoon.
A Slight chance of Excessive, Heavy Rainfall is outlooked across our western half on Sunday and this appears to be mostly for Sunday Morning with rainfall amounts near one to two inches possible through the day Sunday. We should be able to take this additional rainfall without too much in the way of difficulties other than small additional rises on area waterways. Therefore, Flood Watches do not appear to be necessary with the onset of this next storm system tonight through Sunday.

13

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Trough ejects out to our north and east Sunday Night with weak upper ridging in its wake. Another upper level trough will rapidly eject out of the Intermountain West and into the Southern/Central Plains on Monday. While most of our region will be removed from the impacts of this next trough, forcing will be slightly enhanced across our northern zones so kept with NBM's handling of mostly chance pops across our northern half with slight chance pops south for Monday. Pretty uneventful day planned for Tue other than slight chance pops near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor, then southwest flow aloft begins to become enhanced as we await disturbances embedded in this flow to impact our region Wed into Thu. Latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with a frontal intrusion into our region sometime Wed Night into Thu and this will result in our next chance for strong to severe thunderstorms, not to mention periods of locally heavy rainfall once again.

Progs show this frontal intrusion pushing completely through our region Thu Night through Friday with drier and somewhat milder conditions for Friday and into the upcoming weekend and this would be a break from the parade of systems and rainfall our region has seen recently.

In advance of this cold front, our region will likely experience some of the hottest temperatures we've seen this Spring with afternoon highs Tue and Wed ranging from the middle and upper 80s to the lower 90s across our entire region. With high dewpoints in place, heat indices both afternoons could push 100 degrees in some locations.

13

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some MVFR ceilings linger near far western terminals around 18z this afternoon but conditions are largely VFR across the area and will remain so. Expect scattered convection through mid-late afternoon, becoming more isolated towards the evening before a brief dry period headed into the overnight hours. Expect the cu field to largely diminish after sunset, with a mid/high level ceiling. Then after midnight, rain chances will increase quickly and significantly from west to east into early Sunday morning, with ceilings also quickly deteriorating to MVFR, accompanied by pockets of IFR. Vsbys also likely to reduce to mainly MVFR within the rain shield. Embedded thunderstorms also likely. Rain will taper to showers from west to east through Sunday morning, with little recovery in ceilings thru 18z. Winds mainly S-SE through the period 5-10kts, becoming slightly higher 8-12kts Sunday morning in and around the storm system.

Kovacik

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 69 80 66 / 30 40 100 20 MLU 88 66 80 66 / 30 20 70 20 DEQ 83 64 74 64 / 40 100 100 20 TXK 86 67 77 65 / 30 80 100 20 ELD 85 64 77 64 / 30 30 90 20 TYR 87 68 78 67 / 30 100 100 20 GGG 86 67 78 65 / 30 100 100 20 LFK 86 68 79 65 / 40 90 100 20

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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