Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Mountain, TX
May 16, 2024 8:05 AM CDT (13:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 1:06 PM Moonset 1:46 AM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 161057 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 557 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Surface high pressure has started to push east of the region, allowing southerly winds to return into the area. Mid and high clouds have also moved into the region, which has held overnight temps several degrees warmer than the previous night. Although the main system expected to produce rainfall over the next 36-48 hours hasn't quite arrived yet, a weak disturbance ahead of it has already started to produced some convection across portions of north and central Texas. This activity is quickly moving northeast, and will move into portions of our East Texas counties before daybreak. Short-term progs suggest this convection will diminish by mid morning once it gets into our Louisiana parishes.
For today, flow aloft will remain southwesterly in response to a closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A potent disturbance is expected to move out of western Texas into Central Texas and eventually towards Northern Louisiana, bringing rain back into the region during the afternoon and evening hours today. With PWATs forecasted to be over 2 inches, rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times. Models still suggest this heavy rainfall axis will develop along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Unfortunately, this is where the heaviest rainfall fell a couple days ago, so WPC has highlighted this with a Moderate and High Risk potential for Excessive Rainfall in the aforementioned areas. A Flood Watch has also been issued for counties and parishes generally along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor through 7 PM Friday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, some severe weather will be possible mainly in the same areas. Shear and high CAPE should support the development of some super cells with initial develop this afternoon just west of the area. Progs suggest this convection will eventually form into a decent MCS, possibly moving across our Deep East Texas and adjacent Central Louisiana zones. All modes of severe weather would be possible, but damaging winds appear the greatest threat.
The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move out the region by late this evening, but we could see some lingering convection hang around after midnight tonight and through sunrise Friday morning. I think we may see a break in activity during the morning hours Friday, before more convection is expected to develop as the trough and associated cold front move into the region. With an unstable environment in place, severe storms could be possible again, but it looks like the threat will shift to our eastern Louisiana zones. Again, all modes would be in play.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
The severe weather threat should end on Friday, but convection could linger into Saturday with the upper trough, as it will be slow to exit the region. Dry conditions will return Sunday and through the first portion of next week, as upper ridging is expected to quickly build into the region on the heels of the trough. With dry conditions in place, temperatures are expected to climb well above normal. Afternoon highs are forecast to top out in the lower 90s during this period. The center of the ridge will shift south of the region by the middle of next week. This will allow a cold front to try to move into the region during this time, but the ridge will likely have enough influence to keep the front from advancing through the entire region. With the boundary stalled over the area, rain chances are forecasted to return by Wednesday and Thursday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Conditions should remain mostly mild through the morning, with perhaps an isolated shower here or there. Skies will remain VFR, before beginning to deteriorate around 17/00z. MVFR/IFR CIGS will move into the area, along with moderate to heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms may be possible, but confidence was only high enough to carry TS at KLFK.
/44/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 68 83 68 / 60 90 30 20 MLU 87 66 83 67 / 30 90 50 30 DEQ 84 63 80 62 / 40 70 50 20 TXK 86 66 82 66 / 50 70 40 20 ELD 86 64 81 63 / 30 80 40 30 TYR 82 67 82 66 / 80 80 20 10 GGG 83 67 82 66 / 70 80 20 20 LFK 82 67 83 67 / 90 80 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening for LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ136-149>153-165>167.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 557 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Surface high pressure has started to push east of the region, allowing southerly winds to return into the area. Mid and high clouds have also moved into the region, which has held overnight temps several degrees warmer than the previous night. Although the main system expected to produce rainfall over the next 36-48 hours hasn't quite arrived yet, a weak disturbance ahead of it has already started to produced some convection across portions of north and central Texas. This activity is quickly moving northeast, and will move into portions of our East Texas counties before daybreak. Short-term progs suggest this convection will diminish by mid morning once it gets into our Louisiana parishes.
For today, flow aloft will remain southwesterly in response to a closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A potent disturbance is expected to move out of western Texas into Central Texas and eventually towards Northern Louisiana, bringing rain back into the region during the afternoon and evening hours today. With PWATs forecasted to be over 2 inches, rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times. Models still suggest this heavy rainfall axis will develop along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Unfortunately, this is where the heaviest rainfall fell a couple days ago, so WPC has highlighted this with a Moderate and High Risk potential for Excessive Rainfall in the aforementioned areas. A Flood Watch has also been issued for counties and parishes generally along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor through 7 PM Friday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, some severe weather will be possible mainly in the same areas. Shear and high CAPE should support the development of some super cells with initial develop this afternoon just west of the area. Progs suggest this convection will eventually form into a decent MCS, possibly moving across our Deep East Texas and adjacent Central Louisiana zones. All modes of severe weather would be possible, but damaging winds appear the greatest threat.
The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move out the region by late this evening, but we could see some lingering convection hang around after midnight tonight and through sunrise Friday morning. I think we may see a break in activity during the morning hours Friday, before more convection is expected to develop as the trough and associated cold front move into the region. With an unstable environment in place, severe storms could be possible again, but it looks like the threat will shift to our eastern Louisiana zones. Again, all modes would be in play.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
The severe weather threat should end on Friday, but convection could linger into Saturday with the upper trough, as it will be slow to exit the region. Dry conditions will return Sunday and through the first portion of next week, as upper ridging is expected to quickly build into the region on the heels of the trough. With dry conditions in place, temperatures are expected to climb well above normal. Afternoon highs are forecast to top out in the lower 90s during this period. The center of the ridge will shift south of the region by the middle of next week. This will allow a cold front to try to move into the region during this time, but the ridge will likely have enough influence to keep the front from advancing through the entire region. With the boundary stalled over the area, rain chances are forecasted to return by Wednesday and Thursday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Conditions should remain mostly mild through the morning, with perhaps an isolated shower here or there. Skies will remain VFR, before beginning to deteriorate around 17/00z. MVFR/IFR CIGS will move into the area, along with moderate to heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms may be possible, but confidence was only high enough to carry TS at KLFK.
/44/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 68 83 68 / 60 90 30 20 MLU 87 66 83 67 / 30 90 50 30 DEQ 84 63 80 62 / 40 70 50 20 TXK 86 66 82 66 / 50 70 40 20 ELD 86 64 81 63 / 30 80 40 30 TYR 82 67 82 66 / 80 80 20 10 GGG 83 67 82 66 / 70 80 20 20 LFK 82 67 83 67 / 90 80 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening for LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ136-149>153-165>167.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJXI FOX STEPHENS FIELD GILMER MUNI,TX | 12 sm | 10 min | ESE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 29.82 | |
| KGGG EAST TEXAS RGNL,TX | 14 sm | 12 min | ESE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 64°F | 78% | 29.82 |
Shreveport, LA,
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