Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kiawah Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:17PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:17 PM EDT (01:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 8:26AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 647 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..SE winds 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 82 degrees.
AMZ300 647 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will dominate and will produce unseasonably hot conditions through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiawah Island, SC
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location: 32.59, -80.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 222359
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
759 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate and will produce unseasonably hot
conditions through the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Now that the sea breeze has passed inland of our counties,
there is no longer any mention of convection in the forecast.

The weak back door cold front is found near the beaufort-jasper
border and drifting south-southwest. It is expected to move
into georgia as it crosses the savannah river during the mid
evening hours. Perhaps a few showers will occur due to this
feature, but odds are too low to include in the forecast.

The SREF is showing 30-40% chances of late night fog and stratus
across our inland georgia zones, but since those places will
have the hardest time reaching their cross-over temps, we died
not add to the forecast.

Previous discussion...

as of 4 pm: latest satellite indicated small-celled CU across
se ga and along the coast. Towering CU with a few showers were
pushing inland across the charleston tri-county. Based on the
latest cams, the convection is timed to push west of the
forecast area by 22z. I will highlight the passage of the
showers and isolate thunderstorms with schc pops. This evening,
convective clouds will gradually dissipate across the cwa. A
weak pressure gradient should result in light to calm winds
tonight. The light winds combined with partly cloudy sky should
yield low temperatures in the low to mid 70s tonight.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Thursday: a weak backdoor cold front combined with the sea breeze to
support a few showers over northern counties Wednesday. The
weakening remnants of this cold front will shift into southern
counties Thursday and could combine with the sea breeze to produce a
few brief showers thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Thus, introduced
pops around 15 percent to account for this scenario across southern
counties. However, coverage of showers, if any, will remain sparse,
and most areas will remain rain-free. Otherwise, high temperatures
will average in the upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations. Well
inland, a few locales could top out in the middle 90s, while highs
in the lower middle 80s should remain common on the beaches. Low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the middle upper 60s
inland to the lower middle 70s on the beaches.

Friday and Saturday: building high pressure at the surface and aloft
will push our region into a significant heat wave that challenge or
break many temperature records and will persist through memorial day
weekend and at least into the middle of next week. Friday, expect
high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s and maximum heat index
values around 100f away from the beaches. Saturday, inland high
temperatures in the upper 90s lower 100s will be accompanied by
maximum heat index values 101-106f. Despite these unseasonably hot
conditions, strong subsidence capping provided by the upper ridge
will likely prevent any shower thunderstorm development Friday and
Saturday. During the overnight hours, a few inland locations could
briefly dip into the upper 60s before daybreak, but most locations
will only bottom out in the lower to middle 70s, some 5-10 degrees
below normal for late may.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
High confidence in the first several days of this period as the
very significant and hazardous early summer heat wave continues.

The strong upper level ridge will shift a bit southwest of the
area. This will aid in deep northwesterly downslope flow across
the area with the sea breeze likely being pinned at or near the
coast at least Sunday and Monday. With no significant change in
850 mb temperatures from the end of the short term period, high
temperatures on Sunday, Monday, and quite possibly Tuesday will be
hot, mainly near 100 away from the coast. Heat indices will likely
reach advisory levels Sunday through Tuesday in portions of the
area. By Wednesday forecast becomes more uncertain with the gfs
indicating a slight break in the heat wave while the ECMWF indicates
that the heat wave is maintained or even worsens.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
MainlyVFR.

A period of lingering MVFR ceilings at kchs early in the 00z taf
period.

At most a passing -shra might occur at ksav tonight with a
cold front moving in, but with no impacts.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Marine
Gusty winds will end as the Sun sets this evening. The rest of the
night should feature steady e-se winds as high as 15 kt south
and in charleston harbor, with 15-20 kt north, before dropping
around 5 or 10 kt by midnight. Seas will average 2-3 ft within
20 nm and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm.

Thursday through Monday: high pressure and an associated pressure
pattern will hold winds seas well below small craft advisory levels
through this period. E SE winds Thursday will give way to S SW winds
for the balance of this forecast period. Much of the time, winds
should remain below 15 knots. However, given the intensity of the
inland heat, the sea breeze could become fairly strong especially
Friday through memorial day, perhaps locally pushing into the 15-20
knots range for a few hours each day. Seas should remain capped at 2-
3 feet through the period.

Climate
A very significant, hazardous and prolonged heat wave will challenge
or break many of these records.

Record for Wed 05 22...

station record high min year
------- --------------- ----
kcxm 76 1998
record for Thu 05 23...

station record high min year
------- --------------- ----
kcxm 77 1998
records for Fri 05 24...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1953
ksav 98 2011, 1953
kcxm 98 1953
records for Sat 05 25...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 2000, 1953
kcxm 95 1962, 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1953
kcxm 79 1998
ksav 76 1878
records for Sun 05 26...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
ksav 100 1953
kcxm 99 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1998
kcxm 79 1998
records for Mon 05 27...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1989
kcxm 95 1962, 1926
ksav 98 1989, 1962
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 1991
kcxm 78 1991
ksav 77 1878
records for Tue 05 28...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1967, 1964
kcxm 93 2000
ksav 96 1964, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2000
kcxm 80 2000
ksav 76 1885
records for Wed 05 29...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 1945
ksav 98 1945, 1898
kcxm 97 1921
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 74 1991
kcxm 77 1998
ksav 75 1885

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term... Spr
long term...

aviation...

marine...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 13 mi77 min E 18 G 20 78°F 1022.9 hPa (+0.6)72°F
CHTS1 16 mi29 min ENE 14 G 17 78°F 80°F1023 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 18 mi92 min E 4.1 79°F 1022 hPa73°F
41033 27 mi129 min ESE 16 G 19 79°F 81°F1021.4 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi69 min ESE 18 G 25 77°F 77°F1022.2 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 54 mi27 min E 18 G 21 77°F5 ft1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi22 minE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds77°F71°F83%1023 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC23 mi21 minESE 10 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS8S5S5SE66SE6E8E13E9
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1 day agoS7S7S7S7S7S5SW5SW6S4CalmCalmSW5W9SW6W7S7S10S11S10S11S9S8S9S3
2 days agoSE7S76S6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmSW7S8S11S9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:37 AM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.35.44.12.51.10.30.41.22.33.54.44.954.43.42.21.10.40.51.32.63.955.7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor, off Fort Sumter, South Carolina Current (expired 1996-12-31)
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Charleston Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:52 AM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:39 AM EDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:57 PM EDT     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:54 PM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-1.5-2.3-2.5-2.2-1.5-0.40.71.51.61.30.8-0-1-1.9-2.1-1.9-1.2-0.30.91.82.11.81.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.