Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:03 PM EDT (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 8:34PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 643 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely after midnight.
Fri..S winds 15 kt. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves can be higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted...waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature...65 degrees.
AMZ300 643 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A weak front will linger near the altamaha river tonight, then move north as a warm front Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front will move through Friday night followed by dry high pressure into Sunday. Unsettled weather should return again next Monday, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook Island, SC
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location: 32.6, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 292002
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
402 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
A weak front will hover just south of the area tonight, then move
north as a warm front Thursday night. A cold front will move through
Friday night followed by dry high pressure into Sunday. Unsettled
weather should return again next Monday, possibly lasting into
Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
Dry weather tonight but increasing low stratus across the
southern two-thirds of the area with the potential for some
build-down fog. The surface high to the north will drift to the
east overnight though a weak onshore flow will persist. A weak
surface trough across southeast ga will result in slightly
deeper moisture in that area, supporting stratus development.

Low-level winds increase a bit late tonight so this looks more
stratus than fog, though some build-down is expected. We
included patchy fog across the southern two-thirds of the area
including adjacent marine areas.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/
A stalled front across southeast ga Thursday will move northward as
a warm front Thursday night. A cold front is expected to cross
through the region Friday night. Models have remained relatively
consistent, showing rain chances increasing Thursday afternoon
when deeper moisture and isentropic ascent increase across the area.

Thus, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms (mainly across ga)
are expected Thursday afternoon/evening. A brief lull in the
precipitation is Thursday night, especially across our
southernmost counties, before increasing again toward daybreak
Friday as stronger synoptic forcing arrives. Precipitation should
taper off later Friday as the deepest moisture shifts northeast
of the area. Although wind fields will be strong Friday, instability
is minimal. Models keep the bulk of convection far to our north,
closer to an area of low pressure, and far to our south, where
a jet streak could provide some support. Since we should remain
between these two areas, the threat for severe weather is low.

More so given the best moisture and instability appear to be
early in the morning, well before peak heating. The trend has
been earlier and weaker, and the forecast reflects this, the
main threat being in the morning hours, diminishing in the
afternoon. But even that may be a bit overdone at this point.

Either way it should be a breezy day with gusts up to around
25-30 mph. Any lingering showers near the sc coast should end
Friday evening as the cold front moves. Dry conditions will
prevail into Saturday.

With the first front to our south on Thursday, temperatures will be
a bit cooler. It should stay below 80 degrees across sc, but rise
into the 80s across ga. Temperatures Friday will be moderated by the
clouds/rain, likely only reaching close to 80 degrees inland with a
slight warmup Saturday as slight cool advection likely gets overcome
by some downslope warming.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Dry high pressure to prevail through Sunday night although moisture
will be increasing toward Monday morning as low-level jetting ramps
up ahead of approaching low pressure from the west. Unsettled
weather is expected Monday into Tuesday although timing is a bit
uncertain at this point. Mid-level ridging should keep things dry
and quite warm Wednesday, possibly near record levels in ga.

Otherwise, temperatures should remain above normal through the
period.

Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/
Vfr through this evening. Increasing low-level moisture into
southeast ga after midnight as the surface high to the north
shifts off the coast. Low stratus is a pretty good bet so we
added MVFR ceilings at ksav after 08z. Although some stratus
build-down is possible, the better chances for low surface
visibilities will be farther inland where low-level winds
diminish, so we are only showing 5sm for a few hours straddling
daybreak Thursday.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions are likely due to
showers/thunderstorms/low clouds, late Thursday into Friday morning.

Breezy conditions are expected on Friday.

Marine
Ne to E winds expected tonight as the surface high remains north
of the waters and a modest gradient persists. Stratus is
expected to develop across the nearshore waters south of
charleston where moist onshore flow persists tonight. Visibility
could be limited at the surface at times where the stratus
builds down to the surface.

Thursday through Monday: a warm front will shift north through the
area Thursday night/Friday. A cold front will then move through
Friday night/early Saturday. At some point prior to the cold frontal
passage sea fog could develop across the cooler near shore waters
and lead to low visibilities. Confidence in this occurring is very
low. High pressure is expected this weekend followed by deteriorating
conditions on Monday as a storm system approaches from the
west.

Expect a high chance for advisories Thursday night across the outer
waters, expanding northward into the sc waters into Friday night as
strengthening winds build seas to 6-7 feet, highest toward the gulf
stream.

Rip currents: moderate risk for rip currents along the sc coast
through Thursday. Onshore winds along with a 2-3 foot long period
swell may produce rip currents. The enhanced risk for rip currents
could persist into Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Extratropical surge models continue to show a high tide around
10 pm this evening around 7.3' mllw in charleston harbor. This
is contingent on the surge increasing substantially from the
current levels and assumes the NE winds increase along the coast
this evening. Our confidence is low that the anomaly will
increase to at least 0.6 ft before 10 pm, which is what would be
necessary for minor coastal flooding along the sc coast. We will
defer the decision on potential coastal flood advisory to the
next shift who can monitor ongoing trends after the upcoming low
tide occurs.

Onshore winds combined with a long period swell impacting the coast
will cause saltwater inundation, especially in vulnerable coastal
areas. The high tides Thursday morning could reach advisory
levels, especially in sc. The Thursday evening high tide could
approach warning levels. Coastal flood headlines are expected
with each of these tide cycles.

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Jrl
short term... Ms
long term... Rjb
aviation... Jrl/ms
marine... Jrl/ms
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 14 mi64 min E 7 G 8 66°F 1016.8 hPa (-0.0)62°F
CHTS1 17 mi52 min E 8 G 8.9 68°F 65°F1016.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi79 min SE 2.9 73°F 1015 hPa61°F
41033 27 mi56 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 64°F1015.2 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 55 mi74 min ENE 12 G 16 71°F 71°F4 ft1015.5 hPa (+0.0)68°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi69 minE 810.00 miFair73°F64°F74%1015.9 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC22 mi68 minSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F55°F48%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7
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S7S3SW8SW6SW5SW6SW5W4CalmCalmNW4N4N6NE7N53NE7E9E10E10SE6E8E7
1 day agoS7S6S4S3CalmS5S6S5S7SW5S5S8SW6S5SW9SW9S11S9S11S13S15SW12S11S12
G18
2 days agoSE3SE5SE4SE6SE6SE4SE4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S6S10S10S11SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:23 PM EDT     6.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.42.60.9-0.3-0.60.21.73.44.85.86.25.84.731.3-0.1-0.7-0.21.23.14.86.16.86.7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 01:09 AM EDT     -3.16 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     2.34 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.6-3.1-2.8-1.6-0.21.122.11.81.30.4-0.9-2.1-2.9-2.9-2-0.60.81.92.321.50.8-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.