Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:19PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:54 AM EST (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:14PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 523 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late this morning. Showers, mainly this morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 kt.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 65 degrees.
AMZ300 523 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Low pressure will move northeast of the area today with cool and dry high pressure returning through much of the weekend. High pressure will generally persist over the southeast states next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook Island, SC
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location: 32.6, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 150922
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
422 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast of the area today with cool
and dry high pressure returning through much of the weekend.

High pressure will generally persist over the southeast states
next week.

Near term through tonight
Pre-dawn: a weak low pressure area developing off the southeast
ga coast will move along the sc coast as daybreak approaches. A
very tight surface pressure gradient precedes the passage of
this low, anchored by strong high pressure over new england. We
expect coastal winds will begin to subside along coastal areas
north of the savannah river over the next few hours. Rains have
been widespread overnight with an area of very heavy rains just
of the charleston county coast. We will be monitoring these low-
topped convective rains through dawn as it not clear if they
will translate onshore. Since strong onshore flow continues,
they could pose a short-window risk for minor flooding along
some portions of charleston county. Strong warm air advection
ahead of the low was not being realized at the surface as the
wedge remains very strong. Temps should remain fairly steady
through dawn.

Today: a deep mid level cut-off low pressure area between st.

Louis and memphis is forecast to be ejected more eastward by a
digging short wave across the northern plains. The main surface
wave off our coast will reach northeast nc by late in the day.

Rains will persist through the morning across sc zones but tend
to shift northeast away from the region this afternoon. Across
southeast ga, a punch of strong deep layered drying is forecast
to bring an end to the rains by midday or sooner many areas.

The back edge of nearly saturated 850-500 mb air may takes
until mid afternoon to clear out of charleston and berkeley
counties and some scattered light back-side rains are possible
until the dryer air aloft arrives. Model consensus suggests that
if there is much clearing later today, it would be most likely
occur inland from i-95 and probably so late it would not impact
temps very much. Readings are expected to be chilly as consensus
guidance indicates inland temps may struggle to get out of the
lower 50s or maybe even some upper 40s in some areas.

Tonight: skies will eventually clear with cold air advection in
the lower levels on tap as high pressure builds east toward the
area. Late night readings across the area will fall into the
mid to upper 30s along with light west to northwest breezes.

We were compelled to introduce patchy frost over much of the
region to the west of u.S. Given the anticipated sunrise temps
and a chance that inland sheltered locations decouple late.

Short term Friday through Sunday
Confidence is high this period. Expect improving conditions Thursday
as low pressure moves farther away up the coast. Rain should
generally end from south to north Thursday morning although a few
showers could linger across the sc lowcountry into late Thursday
afternoon. Instability looks minimal over land but can't rule out a
few thunderstorms mainly near the charleston county coast early in
the morning. Otherwise high pressure will build in and prevail
through the end of the week. The main concern late week will be the
potential for some frost Friday and Saturday morning across inland
areas where temperatures could reach the mid 30s. The best chance
for at least scattered frost will likely be Saturday morning though
when winds are lighter.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Dry weather will prevail through early next week as cooler high
pressure moves into the area. A weak area of low pressure may
develop offshore and cause a few showers mainly near the coast.

Temperatures should mostly stay near normal.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Rain has overspread the terminals overnight as lift increased
ahead of an approaching wave of low pressure from the south and
southwest. Ifr conditions will persist as the rain falls, and
continues into at least late morning. As the low pulls away,
the rain will end and there should be at least some improvement
back into the MVFR range after 16-18z.

An additional concern is llws at kchs and perhaps more limited
risks at ksav through mid morning.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions, likely below ifr at
times, expected much of Thursday, especially at kchs. Otherwise no
significant impacts expected through the weekend.

Marine
Overnight: conditions have been nasty off the charleston county
coast with a pilot boat report at 230 am painting northeast
winds at 30-40 knots and east swells at 6-8 ft. We extended the
gale warning an hour to 6 am as models indicate the gradient
tending to relax after 09z.

Today: we have SCA conditions that will improve after winds
shift offshore and the waves begin to subside. This will first
occur late morning along the near shore waters of ga and then
southern sc waters early this afternoon. Charleston waters will
tend to be slower to subside and scas that follow this
morning's gale warning may need to be extended through the day.

Tonight: cold air advection over the waters while high pressure
builds in from the west. We expect decent surges that will keep
conditions in SCA mode over outer ga waters. It is more marginal
near-shore but scas are possible in these legs. Seas will be
higher offshore in the northwest flow regime.

Thursday through Sunday: quite poor marine conditions expected into
early Friday as a storm system moves north of the area. Small craft
advisories will likely come down Thursday afternoon for the
nearshore waters but linger through Friday morning for the offshore
ga waters. Otherwise no significant concerns through the end
weekend.

High surf: strong northeast flow will cause elevated seas and
enhanced wave action to continue along the sc coast into mid
morning. A high surf advisory remains in effect. Shifting wind
directions to offshore along the ga coast should spell an end
to the high surf potential by daybreak.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... High surf advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
gaz117-119-139-141.

Sc... High surf advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
scz051.

High surf advisory until 10 am est this morning for scz048>050.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est today for amz352.

Gale warning until 6 am est early this morning for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz354.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est Friday for amz374.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
amz330.

Near term...

short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Rjb
marine... Rjb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 14 mi55 min NNW 7 G 13 53°F 1014.1 hPa (-2.9)53°F
CHTS1 17 mi37 min NNW 8.9 G 13 51°F 65°F1014.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi70 min N 5.1 49°F 1014 hPa49°F
41033 27 mi47 min Calm G 0
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi47 min NE 27 G 37 62°F 66°F1010 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 55 mi35 min E 19 G 27 74°F 75°F1012.5 hPa74°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi60 minNNW 8 G 185.00 miFog/Mist50°F50°F100%1013.9 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC22 mi59 minNNE 105.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F96%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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1 day ago------W4W4CalmNW6W6
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G12
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Thu -- 01:07 AM EST     4.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     1.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:42 PM EST     5.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.94.74.13.22.31.61.31.52.33.34.355.55.55.14.23.22.21.41.21.62.43.4

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:27 AM EST     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:14 AM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:41 PM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50-0.6-1-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.40.10.71.110.80.5-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.1-0.50.311.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.