Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:30 PM EDT (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:43PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 312 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 80 degrees.
AMZ300 312 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Unseasonably hot high pressure will dominate into late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook Island, SC
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location: 32.6, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 231955
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
355 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Unseasonably hot high pressure will dominate into late next
week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 350 pm: the latest cirrus band from goes-east indicated a
thin veil of cirrus drifting SE across the carolinas. Fair
weather CU across the inland counties have decreased with the
arrival of the thin high clouds. As a result, the isolated
showers over northern charleston county have dissipated. Radar
returns over the outer sc waters is associated with chaff. Given
the deep ridging across the forecast area, I will keep the
forecast through tonight dry. Using a blend of mos, I will
forecast low temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the low to
mid 70s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
High confidence this period that temperatures will remain much above
normal with rain chances much below normal as deep-layer high
pressure dominate the weather pattern. A backdoor cold front looks
to approach from the north Friday night, possibly making it to
around the savannah river before dissipating and getting absorbed by
an inland trough. This pattern will then persist through the rest of
the weekend.

The best chance for any rain should be across sc on Saturday with
the front in the area and increased low-level moisture. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon, possibly
becoming marginally severe with damaging winds due to the high
amount (1000+ j kg) of downdraft CAPE according to model soundings.

Temperatures will definitely be the big story however with highs
peaking well above normal near record levels (see climate section
below), especially by Sunday when lower 100s will be possible
inland. Heat indices are forecast to peak around 100 degrees inland
Friday and then closer to 105 degrees by Sunday when our first heat
advisories of the season may be needed. Interestingly, Saturday
could end up being a bit warmer than forecast depending on the
potential for some frontal compression. Unfortunately overnight lows
will also be well above normal which means not much relief is
expected.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
There does not appear to be any relief in the dangerous and
prolonged heat wave through at least Thursday. Continued sinking
motion, a dry atmosphere above the boundary layer which will result
in nearly full sun, a dry ground, and 850 mb temperatures generally
within a degree or two of 20 celsius all point to high temperatures
from 97 to 103 degrees away from the coast. Heat indices at or above
105 which would prompt a heat advisory may occur on any of the days.

The need for a heat advisory seems mostly likely to be needed on
Monday and or Tuesday. Air quality issues may develop at any point
during this period due to the excessive heat and generally stagnant
air pattern. Even though winds will be on the lighter side, hot
conditions and dry fuels could aid in the development of wild fires.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Marine
The center of sfc high pressure will slide south across the marine
zones tonight. Winds are forecast to shift from the southeast to
south during the overnight hours, speeds remaining around 10 kts.

Wave heights between 2-3 ft should remain common across the
waters.

Friday through Tuesday: summer-like pattern will prevail with
atlantic high pressure to the east. This will lead to increasing
winds during the afternoon as the sea breeze develops near the coast
which will then subside a bit overnight but not much. Overall wind
gust should stay 20 knots or less and with seas about 3-4 ft or less
we don't anticipate any small craft advisories will be required.

Climate
A very significant, hazardous and prolonged heat wave will challenge
or break many of these records.

Record for Thu 05 23...

station record high min year
------- --------------- ----
kcxm 77 1998
records for Fri 05 24...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1953
ksav 98 2011, 1953
records for Sat 05 25...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 2000, 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1953
ksav 76 1878
kcxm 79 1998
records for Sun 05 26...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1998
kcxm 79 1998
records for Mon 05 27...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1989
ksav 98 1989, 1962
kcxm 95 1962, 1926
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 1991
ksav 77 1878
kcxm 78 1991
records for Tue 05 28...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1967, 1964
ksav 96 1964, 1898
kcxm 93 2000
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2000
ksav 76 1885
kcxm 80 2000
records for Wed 05 29...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 1945
ksav 98 1945, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2018
ksav 75 1885
kcxm 77 1998
records for Thu 05 30...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 2004
ksav 101 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1982
ksav 75 1924
kcxm 78 1998

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term... Rjb
long term...

aviation... Ned
marine... Ned rjb
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 14 mi30 min S 11 G 12 78°F 1023 hPa (-0.9)70°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi105 min S 1.9 81°F 1023 hPa69°F
CHTS1 17 mi36 min SSE 8 G 11 79°F 81°F1022.6 hPa
41033 27 mi142 min S 12 G 16 78°F 80°F1022.9 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi22 min S 9.7 G 14 78°F 78°F1022.2 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 55 mi30 min SE 9.7 G 12 78°F1022.6 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi35 minSSE 810.00 miFair81°F68°F66%1022.3 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC22 mi34 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F66°F62%1022 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E9
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SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm45E7SE7SE7
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1 day agoS9S3S4S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS8S5S5SE66SE6E8E13E9
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2 days agoS11S6S7S7S7S7S7S5SW5SW6S4CalmCalmSW5W9SW6W7S7S10S11S10S11S9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Thu -- 12:06 AM EDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.15.84.93.62.210.40.71.62.73.74.44.84.74.13.121.10.60.91.72.94.15

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor, off Fort Sumter, South Carolina Current (expired 1996-12-31)
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Charleston Harbor
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Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:36 AM EDT     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.5-1.6-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.2-0.20.91.41.410.5-0.2-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6-0.9-011.71.81.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.