Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 12:26 AM   Moonset 10:09 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 290538 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

A fairly dry day on tap today, at least through 1 PM. Rain chances will be on the increase in the far west during the afternoon as the line of showers and storms begins to approach the area. A majority of the models now indicate the initial area of storms will slide to our southwest, just clipping our southwestern counties. These short range models show the line reaching the MS/AL state line by mid-afternoon, with considerable weakening of the northern portion of the line towards late afternoon as the low level jet decreases. There may be a 3-6 hour window, in the early evening with minimal coverage of convection over west Alabama, then additional convection develops over MS as the mid level trof axis approaches with steepening mid level lapse rates.
The better coverage of convection will likely occur across Alabama tonight into Tuesday morning as mid-level lapse rates increase and a low level jet develops. Some stronger storms are possible through Tuesday morning as MUCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. The activity will continue to shift east Alabama through Tuesday morning, with the rain ending across east Alabama by late afternoon.

16

LONG TERM
(Through next Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper ridging will take place over Alabama with lower rain chances and warmer daytime temperatures.
By the end of the week, an upper trof will pass to the north of Alabama, and rain chances will increase over central Alabama.

58/rose

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON APR 29 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 15 to 18 hours as a cold front begins to approach the area. Showers and storms will be possible at TCL as early as 21z but most likely after 00z. BHM and EET as early 00z, but most likely after 3z. A shower may be around ASN and ANB as well after 3z, but chances remain too low at this time to include. For MGM and TOI, we will increasing clouds and perhaps a shower, but again chances are too low to include at this time.

NOTE: KASN continues to have issues with report the sky conditions, so added AMD LTD TO WIND VIS in the TAF.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. Rain chances increase this afternoon through Tuesday. Dry conditions return on Wednesday with RH values dropping back into the 30s and low 40s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 83 61 79 56 / 10 80 70 10 Anniston 82 62 80 59 / 10 70 70 10 Birmingham 83 63 80 60 / 20 80 60 0 Tuscaloosa 83 63 82 61 / 50 80 50 0 Calera 82 62 80 61 / 20 80 60 0 Auburn 81 64 80 63 / 10 30 50 10 Montgomery 84 64 82 63 / 10 50 50 10 Troy 84 63 82 63 / 10 30 50 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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