Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Billingsley, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:41PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:54 AM CDT (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:45AMMoonset 9:06PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, AL
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location: 32.63, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 230957
afdbmx
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
457 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Update
For 12z aviation.

Short term
Today and tonight.

The trend of less fog each night continues, with only jasper,
haleyville, and pell city reporting any visibility reductions. The
southeast upper trough is in the process of breaking off into a
retrograding cutoff upper low today. At upper-levels, the low
remains elongated and will be centered over alabama today, while
at mid-levels the low will be centered over the northern gulf with
an inverted trough extending northward into alabama. This upper
low is part of a rex block pattern over the eastern CONUS with a
northern stream ridge centered over the great lakes, and a
southern stream trough over the gulf yucatan. To the east,
hurricane maria will continue to drift northward northeast of the
bahamas, while the deep trough remains over the western conus.

Light easterlies remain in place at low-levels, south of a low-
level ridge centered over the great lakes and ohio valley.

Layer mean rh values remain modest with experimental goes-16 derived
pwats mainly around 1.5 to 1.6 inches. Daytime heating and remnant
boundaries remain the main forcing mechanisms for development of
summer showers storms. Raised pops from isolated to scattered for
the afternoon across the far northern and northwestern counties.

This is where the best moisture appears to be, with lift aided by
weak vort maxes rotating around the northern side of the upper low,
and advection of potential vorticity along the dynamic tropopause
due to the westward moving upper low +pv anomaly. Experimental goes-
16 derived pwats shows an wedge of drier air (1.3 inch pwats) nosing
into the east-central counties (e.G. Randolph, chambers, clay,
tallapoosa) from georgia. This will continue to knife its way
westward into the middle of the forecast area, and could suppress
convective development across the middle central third
(latitudinally speaking) of the area. But will leave an isolated
mention again given the low-level moisture present. A separate area
of showers storms may develop in far southeast al south of this dry
wedge with another vort MAX working in, but not confident enough in
coverage there to go above isolated.

A mid-level cold pool (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -11c) will
be moving over the area due to the upper low, contributing to
halfway decent lapse rates. This combined with plenty of dry air
aloft dcape will result in a threat once again of a couple strong
storms with sub-severe hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph, as well as
frequent lightning. Can't completely rule out an isolated marginally
severe storm as happened yesterday, but forecast microburst
composite parameter values remain in the lower end of the moderate
category. Activity should diminish after sunset. Also bumped up high
temperatures which have been over-performing recently, with little
change in 1000-850 mb thickness values from yesterday.

32 davis

Long term
Sunday through Friday.

By Sunday, the upper energy from what was jose continues to
deteriorate further over the atlantic east of new england while
the low over the northern gulf retrogrades toward ms la, and maria
moves further northward further constricting the weak ridging to
ne us while the west coast system progresses eastward to over the
rockies. On Monday, we see any upper level signature from jose
gone, absorbed into maria. The system over the rockies opens up
pulling the energy over the southern states into it as an open
shortwave. The NE us ridge breaks down as maria continues
northward. The result for c al Sunday into Monday will be only low
pops south west with better chances near the gulf coast.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the main upper low associated with the
rockies system moves northeast toward manitoba. At the same time,
a piece of energy breaks off from the trough forming a closed low
over the desert southwest. Ridging fills in over the gulf behind
maria and starts to creep around into E conus. We should remain
dry for Tuesday into Wednesday across central alabama being on the
dry northerly flow side of maria along with ridging in place
across the deep south.

At the surface, a cold front makes progress across the central
part of the us to near our door step by late Wednesday. This is a
little faster than yesterday's run. Each run has trended drier
ahead of the front. So, I will only carry some low pops across
the northern counties on Thursday with drier air filling in
quickly behind the front. A second reinforcing surface front
moves in behind it on Friday escorting a 1028 mb ridge across the
upper plains into the mid west states with tight gradients and a
northerly flow across alabama to insure cooler weather a nice
taste of fall and absolutely beautiful weather as we end the work
week and head into next weekend.

08

Aviation
12z TAF discussion.

Other than a brief period of MVFR br around sunrise,VFR
conditions should be predominate through much of the period.

Daytime heating, remnant heating, and an upper low will result in
isolated afternoon showers and storms near the TAF sites. But due
to limited moisture, coverage is too low to mention in the tafs
at this time with better coverage remaining north of the
terminals.

32 davis

Fire weather
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today across
the area. Rain chances are more confined to the southwest half of
central alabama for Sunday and Monday. Relative humidity values
only drop into the upper 40s and 50s. Transport winds remain
rather light which will keep dispersion values down too. A change
in the pattern is expected by Thursday with the arrival of a cold
front along with cooler and drier weather expected as we head
into next weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 87 65 85 65 86 30 20 10 10 10
anniston 89 66 85 65 85 20 20 10 10 10
birmingham 90 69 86 67 86 20 20 10 10 10
tuscaloosa 91 69 88 69 88 20 20 20 10 20
calera 90 69 86 67 86 20 10 10 10 10
auburn 85 67 85 67 86 20 10 10 10 10
montgomery 93 69 88 69 89 20 10 20 10 20
troy 88 67 86 67 87 20 10 20 10 20

Bmx watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL24 mi59 minNNE 410.00 miFair72°F70°F95%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from MXF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE4NE4NE4E3NE5E3NE5CalmNE5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3NE3N4CalmNE4N3NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmN3NE3NE3N4CalmNE3N5NW3N6N4NE3N3NW3N4N3CalmCalmCalmNE3N4CalmNE3
2 days agoN3NE3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3E3CalmNE4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station East Alabama
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.