Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Billingsley, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 3:27 AM CST (09:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, AL
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location: 32.63, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 160918
afdbmx
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
318 am cst Tue jan 16 2018

Short term
Today and tonight.

The arctic front has moved into northwest alabama and will be making
its way through the forecast area this morning and afternoon. A band
of heavy snow is currently ongoing in eastern arkansas and western
tennessee. The eastern edge of this band should reach our
northwestern CWA border around 12z, likely with less intensity than
currently observed. Models are in general agreement with the idea of
a weakening band in the QPF output, but a swath of 700mb rh values
near 100% appears healthy across the entire CWA along with
saturation through the column. This system has been overperforming
across the memphis and paducah areas, and with that in mind, we have
raised accumulations across the entire area to the 1 to 1.5 inch
range. A relative minimum seems likely somewhere in the CWA as the
isentropic lift takes a pause before lift increases in association
with the upper-level trough. This minimum may actually occur
across the northwestern part of the area, and the focus could
shift to a second wave farther east in the afternoon and evening.

The approaching vort MAX at 500mb appears very impressive this
afternoon into tonight and will have an opportunity to enhance the
snow band as it moves east of i-59. Pwat values will surge in this
zone, and additional lift could result in snowfall amounts exceeding
our current forecast. The ecmwf, several european ensemble members,
and the regional canadian indicate the potential for 2-4 inch
amounts along and east of i-59 all the way to our eastern and
southern borders. This scenario will be monitored for a possible
upgrade to a winter storm warning. Impacts could be significant
across our entire forecast area due to temperatures falling into
the 20s and teens as the snow falls. A wind chill advisory has
been issued for the entire area for tonight and Wednesday morning
for wind chills of 5 above zero to 5 below zero.

87 grantham

Long term
Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday Thursday:
strong cold air advection will be in place on Wednesday, on the
back side of the upper trough and to the east of a 1042mb surface
high centered over the southern plains ozarks. Clear skies will
be present due to the dry arctic air mass, but midday 925 mb
temperatures around -12c and potential snowcover will keep
temperatures below freezing across the majority of the area
(generally north of us80 i-85). Highs will range from the upper
20s to low 30s north and be in the low 30s south. If the expected
band of snow across the southeastern counties materializes then
high temperatures there may need to be lowered. With breezy
northwest winds wind chills will still be in the upper teens to
low 20s even in the afternoon. Another hard freeze is expected
Wednesday night as the surface high moves eastward across the deep
south with lows in the teens areawide.

The deep layer flow will become westerly on Thursday. This will
allow cold air advection to cease. But the air mass being advected
in from the west will still be cool initially, coming off an
additional area of snowcover over the arklamiss. This combined
with shallow mixing due to high pressure overhead will only allow
highs to reach the low 40s. Temperatures will rise above freezing
by midday. Another cold night is expected Thursday night as high
pressure overhead results in ideal radiational cooling conditions.

All but the coldest spots in the northeast will remain above hard
freeze criteria (15), with lows ranging from the upper teens far
north to low 20s elsewhere.

Friday Saturday:
the trough currently moving into the pacific northwest will split
into a couple pieces as it moves eastward, with the southern
piece forming a partially cutoff low over the rio grande region.

These waves will remain moisture starved over our area with just
mid high level clouds at times. Warm air advection kicks in for
Friday Saturday with deep layer west-southwesterly flow, allowing
highs to reach the 50s Friday and low 60s by Saturday.

Sunday Monday:
a stronger pacific trough will move across the CONUS during this
time period. This allows a colorado low to deepen as it moves
northeast into the great lakes with a trailing cold front moving
through the area. There could be enough moisture ahead of the
front for some scattered showers Sunday. Models ensembles are
showing some usual spread in the timing of the front, but expect a
line of widespread showers and at least isolated thunderstorms to
move across the area sometime in the Sunday night early Monday
timeframe. Models show 60 dewpoints trying to creep up into our
southern counties, but dewpoints could easily underachieve given
this week's cold front scouring out moisture across the gulf, and
a southeasterly component to the winds across our area. This will
be the main limiting factor for the development of any instability
across central alabama ahead of a possible qlcs. Will continue to
monitor given the shear and forcing, and mid-level lapse rates
around 6-6.5 c km. But any low-end severe threat looks far too
marginal questionable to mention in the hwo at this time.

32 davis

Aviation
06z TAF discussion.

Skies are currently clear across central due to a very dry air
mass in place across the southeast states. A dry cold front was
located near a kgtr-kdcu line. Clouds with bases arnd 5k feet agl
were present just on the north side of the frontal boundary. The
sfc front will continue to push southeast overnight and reach the
i-59 corridor arnd 09z. Clouds with bases arnd 4-5k feet agl will
spread across the northern TAF sites between 09z and 12z. A band
of light snow will reach ktcl-kbhm by 17z and keet kasn kanb by
19z. Vsbys will be be 5-6 miles with the onset of the snow, but
likely fall to 3 miles or less by 21z. North winds will increase
during the afternoon to between 10-15 knots. The band of snow
will shift southeast during the afternoon and eventually reach
kmgm and ktoi between 00z and 02z. The snow should be tapering off
across the northern TAF sites by 00z as drier low level air
advects into the area.

58 rose

Fire weather
An arctic front will move across the area today with light to
moderate snow likely areawide. Dry and very cold conditions are
expected Wednesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 34 12 29 14 41 70 40 0 0 0
anniston 41 12 29 17 42 70 70 0 0 0
birmingham 33 12 30 15 42 70 40 0 0 0
tuscaloosa 35 13 32 16 43 70 20 0 0 0
calera 37 13 30 18 43 70 70 0 0 0
auburn 52 16 31 18 43 20 70 10 0 0
montgomery 50 16 33 18 44 30 70 10 0 0
troy 55 17 33 18 44 10 70 10 0 0

Bmx watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for the
following counties: autauga... Barbour... Bibb... Blount...

bullock... Calhoun... Chambers... Cherokee... Chilton... Clay...

cleburne... Coosa... Dallas... Elmore... Etowah... Fayette... Greene...

hale... Jefferson... Lamar... Lee... Lowndes... Macon... Marengo...

marion... Montgomery... Perry... Pickens... Pike... Randolph...

russell... Shelby... St. Clair... Sumter... Talladega... Tallapoosa...

tuscaloosa... Walker... Winston.

Hard freeze watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
the following counties: autauga... Barbour... Bibb... Blount...

bullock... Calhoun... Chambers... Cherokee... Chilton... Clay...

cleburne... Coosa... Dallas... Elmore... Etowah... Fayette... Greene...

hale... Jefferson... Lamar... Lee... Lowndes... Macon... Marengo...

marion... Montgomery... Perry... Pickens... Pike... Randolph...

russell... Shelby... St. Clair... Sumter... Talladega... Tallapoosa...

tuscaloosa... Walker... Winston.

Wind chill advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst Wednesday
for the following counties: autauga... Barbour... Bibb... Blount...

bullock... Calhoun... Chambers... Cherokee... Chilton... Clay...

cleburne... Coosa... Dallas... Elmore... Etowah... Fayette... Greene...

hale... Jefferson... Lamar... Lee... Lowndes... Macon... Marengo...

marion... Montgomery... Perry... Pickens... Pike... Randolph...

russell... Shelby... St. Clair... Sumter... Talladega... Tallapoosa...

tuscaloosa... Walker... Winston.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL24 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair31°F31°F99%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from MXF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6S4CalmNE4CalmE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN6N5N6N7N8N6N4N4N4N4CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoNW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station East Alabama
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.