Thursday, April18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Billingsley, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday April 18, 2019 11:17 AM CDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:40PMMoonset 5:59AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, AL
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location: 32.63, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 181144
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
644 am cdt Thu apr 18 2019

For 12z aviation.

Short term
Today and tonight.

Majority of the day will be rain free, with above normal afternoon
temperatures and breezy conditions. A dry air mass above 850 mb and
a warm nose between 850mb and 700mb will make it difficult for any
showers or storms to develop today, but a few showers may develop in
the morning hours as the air mass tries to saturate below 850mb.

Gradient winds ahead of the storm system will produce 15-20 mph
sustained winds west of i-65 this afternoon, with gust up to 30 mph.

The winds will remain brisk until the rain shield arrives this
evening. Several models are showing some pre-squall line showers
developing by late afternoon across west alabama, with two distinct
bands of convection entering west alabama in the early evening. The
southern band, along and south of i-20, will interact with the more
unstable air mass across southwest alabama, where CAPE values will
be highest. This area will have the higher threat for tornadoes. The
northern band, which will affect areas north of i-20, will be closer
to the low level jet. This part of the line will have the greatest
threat for damaging straight-line winds as 850mb wind speeds reach
60-70 knots. The northern band of convection may drop off in
intensity once it reaches the i-65 corridor as the southern band
cuts off inflow. The southern band will likely maintain its strength
and that is why the enhanced area for severe storms extends into the
southeast counties. Expect the severe threat to end for areas west
of i-65 by midnight and ending across far eastern alabama by 4 am
cdt. Much colder air will follow frontal passage along with
scattered showers.

58 rose

Long term
Friday through Wednesday.

A highly amplified trough will be in place over the eastern CONUS on
Friday. Within this trough, an anomalously deep upper low will close
off near memphis and track eastward across western tn northern
ms northern al during the day, then track northeastward across
eastern ky tn Friday night while deepening to around 538 decameters
and becoming vertically stacked with a surface low over the central
appalachians. Any remaining shower activity associated with the cold
front will exit quickly off to the east during the early morning,
with a general lull in precipitation later in the morning as a mid-
level dry slot moves overhead, though some light showers drizzle may
still be embedded in an expansive low stratus deck with strong cold
air advection. By afternoon, however, mid-level moisture wrapping
around the upper low and a vort MAX will move in from the northwest
with very strong height falls and QG forcing for ascent. Steep lapse
rates from the surface to 500mb (where temperatures will be around -
25c), and deep moist profiles will result in scattered to numerous
light to moderate showers rotating across the area by afternoon.

With some weak instability present, can't rule out a couple
lightning flashes and the possibility of graupel tiny hail.

Increased pops based on expected coverage and motion of the showers
as indicated by the cams. As 850mb temperatures fall to near 0c,
with wet bulb effects also occurring, expect temperatures across the
north to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s by the late
afternoon evening, with generally miserable conditions for mid-april
in alabama.

Showers and patchy drizzle will continue in this moist cyclonic flow
Friday night. As the upper low gradually moves northeastward and
height rises occur, conditions will very gradually dry out from
southwest to northeast late Friday night and Saturday. Clouds will
still linger for much of the day in the northeast counties on
Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate, but will still be
around 10 degrees below seasonal averages with breezy northwest
winds still making it feel chilly. Strong warm air advection and
developing westerly flow will result in sunny and much more pleasant
conditions for Sunday.

Quasi-zonal flow will result in dry conditions continuing for at
least the first half of the upcoming workweek. A trough will begin
to amplify over the central CONUS by the middle of next week, with a
cutoff low developing as the stronger westerlies retreat north of
the canadian border. With low confidence in the strength and timing
of the cutoff low, will keep pops on the low side towards the end of
the period.

32 davis

12z TAF discussion.

An area of MVFR CIGS developed overnight and has spread across
areas along and west of i-65. The cloud layer is rather thin and
breaks in the cloud deck have already appeared on satellite
imagery. Expect the CIGS to become scattered by 15z with generally
sct conds thru 02z. A dry air mass above 850 mb and an inversion
aloft will hinder any shower or thunderstorm development ahead of
the main line of storms expected tonight. A line of showers and
storms will enter west alabama around 22z and spread slowly
eastward, reaching the i-65 corridor by 05z, and the
alabama georgia state line by 09z. The storms will produce vsbys
blo 1 mile and possibly damaging winds. Gradient winds will also
increase this afternoon and become south southeast 12-18 kts
sustained with gusts to 28 kts from 20z and until the rain

58 rose

Fire weather
Rain free conditions are expected through at least this morning,
before rain and storms move into central alabama ahead of a cold
front. Low clouds are possible across the west and south early this
morning, although fog does not look likely. Winds will increase from
the south this afternoon, with rain chances increasing from west to
east during the afternoon and evening. Behind the storm system,
light rain and drizzle will be possible Friday, with dry conditions
over the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 79 54 56 42 60 10 100 60 50 20
anniston 81 56 58 42 61 10 100 60 50 20
birmingham 80 54 55 43 63 30 100 60 40 10
tuscaloosa 80 53 58 43 67 60 100 60 30 10
calera 80 54 56 43 64 30 100 60 40 10
auburn 80 60 61 44 61 0 100 50 30 20
montgomery 83 58 60 44 66 10 100 40 30 10
troy 81 60 61 44 65 10 100 40 30 10

Bmx watches warnings advisories

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL24 mi22 minS 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F58°F53%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from MXF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE7S8SE6E4S9S9S8S5CalmCalmCalmS5S9S7CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE4SE5SE8S8S13
1 day agoS4S3S3S5S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E3Calm
2 days agoN6NW8--NW6NW8N9N8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE4CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station East Alabama
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.