Marine Weather and Tides
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
|Sunrise 5:51AM||Sunset 7:53PM||Thursday July 19, 2018 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)||Moonrise 12:55PM||Moonset 12:09AM||Illumination 37%|
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Billingsley, ALHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus64 kbmx 190541|
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
1241 am cdt Thu jul 19 2018
For 06z aviation.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed mainly along
and south of a low level boundary. Activity across central alabama
has little or no upper support, and should dissipate early this
evening. Slightly more organized activity just east of the
mississippi river may bring some storms to far west alabama this
evening, and kept low rain chances for this area and areas along
and south of i-85. Expect rain free conditions by midnight. Very
muggy conditions currently with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s.
High levels of low level moisture will keep overnight lows on the
Thursday through Tuesday.
A split upper-level flow pattern will temporarily be in place
across the eastern CONUS Thursday with a broad trough area of
cyclonic flow aloft over the southeast and a ridge over the
eastern great lakes. This will be downstream of a strong
northwesterly upper-level jet streak nosing into the central
plains, with a vigorous shortwave located to its north over the
midwest and a strong ridge to its south centered near the four
corners. At the surface, high pressure will be building down the
lee of the appalachians while a weak wave of low pressure develops
near the gulf coast. This will will result in easterly winds
building into east alabama with an increase in low-level moisture
and convergent flow. Meanwhile the stalled frontal boundary will
become more diffuse. Models have trended quicker with moisture
return, and combined with a weak vort MAX aloft coverage of
afternoon showers storms looks to be greater than previously
expected. Therefore pops were raised especially in the
southern eastern counties. Activity should mainly diminish after
sunset, but there is a slight chance that remnants of convection
developing upstream could reach the northwest counties after
By Friday the southern stream upper trough will push off to the
east as the ridge over the southern plains begins to build
westward. The northern stream shortwave with embedded upper low
will move into wisconsin. 500mb heights will rise over central
alabama with associated synoptic-scale subsidence, while 700mb
temperatures warming to +10 to +11c will result in increased
capping. This may suppress diurnal convection except in the
southeast counties. However, will keep in at least a slight chance
everywhere given available pwats and the potential for lingering
boundaries. Strengthening northwest flow aloft results in 0-6 km
bulk shear values around 35 kts with increasing mid-level lapse
rates. There will be a conditional risk of an isolated strong to
severe storm Friday afternoon if convective initiation can occur.
Low-level flow will become westerly over west alabama, with
trajectories originating from a very hot air mass over the
southern plains. This will result in heat index values around 105
degrees, and this threat will be added to the hwo.
One or more mcss strong to severe clusters of storms are expected
to develop off to our north Friday afternoon evening due to
forcing associated with the upper low and a cold front at the
surface. A "ring of fire" type pattern will be in place around the
southern plains ridge and associated strong capping eml. The best
height falls forcing will remain northeast of our area. There is
the possibility that some of this activity could at least clip our
northeast counties after midnight, but models disagree on this.
There is the possibility that this activity could be strong to
severe given the deep layer shear lapse rates, but given great
uncertainty in the track strength of this activity and the
overnight time frame, confidence is too low to mention in the hwo
for Friday night.
Troughing continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Saturday
as a cold front approaches from the north. Nam GFS wind fields
appear contaminated by convective feedback, but even the ecmwf
shows northwesterly 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 40 kts
over central alabama, which are very unusual for late july. Given
the presence of a moist and unstable air mass and favorable lapse
rates, this will result in the potential for strong to severe
storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. However, the
big caveat is what impact convection late Friday night continuing
into Saturday morning will have on available instability. Both the
gfs and ECMWF show a decent amount of QPF between 12 and 18z
Saturday morning. This could contaminate what would otherwise be a
favorable northwest flow severe event. Therefore, while a threat
of severe storms will be added to the hwo, will keep it as a low
confidence threat for now. Will also note that there will be some
srh present, and given the deep layer shear values the
possibility of a tornado cannot be ruled out. But again given the
low confidence associated with the potential for disruptive
morning convection, will not mention this particular threat in the
hwo at this time. Also, if a cold pool does not form in the
morning, heat index readings could reach 105 as well.
The eastern CONUS trough will remain the main player in the rest
of the extended forecast period. Its placement will have a big
impact on temperatures and dew points. Moisture wrapping around
the trough may be enough to spark some showers storms at times
Sunday through Tuesday.
06z TAF discussion.
Tonight we have a weak stationary boundary just to the north of
the TAF sites. We remain in an overall moist environment over the
taf sites. Low lifr stratus CIGS in the far south for mgm toi are
possible again tonight, with MVFR vis possible for many. Being
south of the boundary would also keep us with better convection
chances for Thursday. Have prob30 tsra mentions for Thursday
afternoon as things heat up.
Note:*** eet has an amd not sked due to an outage on the asos
equipment with only the altimeter reporting. Techs will be
working on the equipment later today.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected today in the
southern counties with activity remaining isolated further north.
Scattered showers and storms are expected again on Thursday with the
most coverage south and east. Localized fog will be possible each
morning where rainfall occurs during the previous afternoon and
evening. There are no fire weather concerns.
Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 91 70 91 72 90 30 20 20 50 60
anniston 90 71 91 72 89 40 20 20 40 60
birmingham 93 73 93 75 91 30 20 20 40 60
tuscaloosa 94 73 95 76 94 30 20 20 30 50
calera 90 71 92 74 91 40 20 20 30 50
auburn 88 71 88 72 89 50 40 40 30 60
montgomery 92 73 94 75 94 50 30 30 20 50
troy 90 73 92 74 92 60 40 40 20 60
Bmx watches warnings advisories
58 32 08
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Maxwell Air Force Base / Montgomery, AL||24 mi||64 min||N 0||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||74°F||73°F||96%||1013.3 hPa|
Wind History from MXF (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||W||SW||W||W||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||S||W||S||S||SW||S||SW |
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (2,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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