Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KFWD 040514 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1214 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Overnight through Sunday/

Convection is waning across the region tonight as surface based inhibition increases. A cluster of showers and a few storms continue to the south of Waco at this hour, but this activity should diminish over the next hour or so. The remainder of the night should be quiet with light winds and humid conditions. Some patchy fog may develop later tonight into the early morning hours on Saturday.

The active weather pattern will continue with a cold front currently across southwest Kansas expected to move through Oklahoma overnight and approaching North Texas Saturday morning.
Synoptic scale forcing for ascent may be negligible during this time, but forcing along the front itself may be sufficient for scattered showers/storms to develop earlier than they did on Friday. This activity is most likely to occur across our northwest counties and generally north of I-20 into the early afternoon.
We'll have some 30-40% PoPs to account for this activity while our central TX counties will likely remain dry.

It's a little unclear whether or not the front will actually make it down into our area through midday with a consensus of the guidance suggesting that it'll get hung up to our north in response to an approaching upstream shortwave. This shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery approaching northern Baja California at this hour. Meanwhile, either an outflow boundary or just a general backing of the low level flow ahead of the front will likely lead to increased low level moisture convergence across the I-20 corridor through the afternoon. This will support isolated/scattered storm development through late afternoon, especially from the Metroplex westward. Meanwhile, thunderstorms will increase in coverage across West Texas and become severe near the intersection of the southward moving front and dryline late this afternoon. This activity will likely evolve into one or more clusters of thunderstorms and spread eastward into North Texas late Saturday night as stronger forcing for ascent from the aforementioned shortwave overspreads the Southern Plains. While there will certainly be some potential for severe weather, especially across our western counties, widespread heavy rainfall may result in additional flooding issues across parts of the region. Latest HRRR guidance shows a large swath of 2-3 inches of rain through late Saturday night across our southwest counties, the majority of which falls in about 3 hours. This may necessitate a westward expansion of the flood watch. We'll coordinate this over the next several hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the region late Saturday night and continue to move eastward into early Sunday morning, tapering off from west to east through the day.
Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Sunday afternoon across our central and southeast counties as the front stalls in wake of the departing shortwave.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/

An active weather pattern will continue Saturday night as a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet lifts northeast across North and Central Texas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Big Country, and will spread east across the region overnight into Sunday morning. A wind and hail threat may accompany these storms across the western half of the region Saturday evening, but convection will be weakening Saturday night while moving into a less favorable environment.
Despite the severity or lack thereof, the presence of a quasi- stationary surface boundary will maintain a threat for more heavy rain and flooding. This threat will be highest over Central Texas where heavy rains have already occurred, and where the front will most likely be located (and is currently exacerbating the ongoing flooding across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas). A Flood Watch has hence been issued through around midday Sunday for those Central Texas Counties who have experienced multiple rounds of heavy rain over the past several days.

Convection will move out during the morning hours Sunday, making for an overall decent day with highs mainly in the 70s. There may be a few rogue showers that pop up in the afternoon but those should be few and far between. Attention will then turn to a larger scale upstream trough, which will cross the Rockies Sunday night, then lift northeast through the Plains on Monday. Most of the ascent associated with this system will remain to our north, but we will still likely have isolated dryline-induced convection Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage may be low due to the presence of a capping inversion, but we will otherwise have a warm and unstable environment in place, and any storms which develop could become severe.

The passing of the shortwave will send a cold front south into the area Tuesday night. After a quiet Tuesday, the front will again provide a focus for convection starting Wednesday, as a longwave trough produces cyclonic flow overhead for the mid to late week period. Scattered showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Not all will receive rain, but just about any of the area could see a shower or storm. By Friday, the front will have sagged well south of the I-20 corridor, unfortunately focusing convection across the saturated Central and Southeast Texas. The front and trough will both shift southeast of the region on Saturday, providing dry weather and overall nice conditions in time for Mother's Day weekend.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /6Z TAFs/

VFR cigs generally prevail in the wake of convection earlier this evening but conditions will again deteriorate overnight with MVFR cigs expected by morning across most of North and Central Texas.
We'll be watching a front slide southward through the morning hours into the D10 airspace. This may be sufficient for a few isolated storms to develop earlier than they did on Friday. Better storm chances will arrive late Saturday night as another complex of storms is expected to track across North Texas through the overnight hours.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 80 67 79 68 / 30 40 100 30 20 Waco 65 80 66 78 67 / 40 30 100 40 20 Paris 68 80 65 75 65 / 20 40 70 80 20 Denton 67 80 64 77 66 / 30 40 100 30 20 McKinney 68 80 66 76 67 / 30 40 90 40 20 Dallas 69 82 67 79 68 / 30 40 90 30 20 Terrell 65 80 67 78 67 / 20 40 90 40 20 Corsicana 66 82 68 79 69 / 20 30 90 40 20 Temple 68 81 67 79 68 / 40 30 90 40 20 Mineral Wells 59 79 64 79 67 / 40 40 100 10 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162- 174-175.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,