Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Hill, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:18PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 9:36 AM CST (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:46PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Hill, TX
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location: 32.63, -96.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 201208 aaa
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
608 am cst Wed feb 20 2019

Aviation
12z tafs
ceilings near fl010 early, thenVFR. West winds today, but no
significant crosswind issues. South flow tonight and Thursday.

Guidance has overestimated the dry advection and resulting stratus
erosion. But with drying west winds near the top of the frontal
inversion, the persistent cloud deck should eventually scatter
this morning. The back edge in western north texas is making slow
progress eastward, and extrapolation of the current rate of
erosion puts the clearing line into the i-35 corridor after the
15z amendments.VFR will prevail thereafter, but a stream of
cirrus off the pacific is already spreading across the region.

These wisps will steadily thicken today, the river of cirrus
remaining overhead tonight.

West winds will remain under 15kts and pose no significant
crosswind threat. Wind speeds will diminish late in the afternoon,
and light southeast flow will be in place by nightfall. Deepening
lee troughing will increase the southerly winds on Thursday. This
will surge low clouds back into central and east texas, but MVFR
ceilings won't return to any of our terminals until Thursday
night.

25

Short term issued 432 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
today and tonight
westerly winds have ensued in the wake of Tuesday's inclement
weather, but the dank surface layer has been slow to dry.

Nonetheless, a t TD spread (albeit small) should preclude any
additional drizzle or ground fog. A blanket of stratus remains
trapped within a persistent frontal inversion, but the back edge
is slowly approaching our western boundary. Drying 850mb flow has
already invaded and will thin the cloud deck from the top, but it
will still be well after daybreak before the clearing line reaches
the i-35 corridor. The peaks of Sun may be short-lived as pacific
moisture streams into texas from the southwest. These high clouds
will steadily grow denser over the course of the day, but dry,
downslope winds should still allow the entire CWA to top 50f for
the first time since last Friday.

As lee troughing re-establishes itself on the high plains,
southeasterly winds will return to much of north texas tonight.

However, central and east texas may feel the tug of a coastal low
in the western gulf, resulting in a more easterly direction to
the surface flow early Thursday morning. This would recycle some
of the cool air from the departing postfrontal high while our
western zones experience warm advection. The result will be rather
uniform low temperatures across the region, in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

25

Long term issued 432 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
Thursday through next Tuesday
a progressive mid-upper level weather pattern will occur late
this week into the first half of this coming weekend. It's been
quite a while since we've had severe weather around these parts,
but we saw yesterday that, despite winter-like temperatures at the
surface, some hail was observed. This happens when you get
significant forcing, resulting in steepening mid-level lapse rates
aloft and substantial instability over the top of cool-cold and
stable low-levels. A similar scenario will likely unfold as we
progress through the day Thursday. Southerly flow within the
900mb-750mb layer is expected to increase quickly between 20-35
knots and combine with increasing pressure advection (vertical
motion) within this layer through the day. This transformation
will occur above a cool and stable surface air mass where morning
temperatures in the 30s-lower 40s are expected to only warm into
the lower-mid 50s, as this warm advection is not realized below
the lingering and shallow frontal inversion. These processes will
be in response to an impressive lead shortwave disturbance exiting
downstream of a strengthening storm system over northern mexico
and the desert southwest.

Areas south of i-30 and east of i-35 with see rapid development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms on the western edge of the
best moisture advection above the frontal inversion. In addition
to the aforementioned lift and upglide across this area, mid level
lapse rates will steepen on the order of 6.5-7.5 deg c km with
mucape (not surface-based) over 500 j kg. This may not seem like
much, but when combined with impressive kinematics, including
deep layer bulk shear of 70-80 knots, stronger storms with hail
and frequent lightning are a good bet. To be honest, it would not
surprise me from mid-morning Thursday into the early-mid afternoon
hours for a few marginally severe storms with hail to quarter
size or even slightly larger if everything comes together as
advertised by the model output regarding our elevated environment
and winds aloft across our far eastern counties. At this time,
however, it does appear the better concentration of thunderstorms
will be just to our east across far east texas into louisiana and
the lower mississippi valley.

A brief lull in convective activity will likely occur later
Thursday afternoon and continuing through midnight Friday morning.

The reprieve will be short-lived however as increasing warm
advection and isentropic ascent return in earnest in advance of
our slow-moving and vigorous storm system lifting east across the
deserts of arizona, new mexico, and northern mexico. Though
Friday will be similar in some aspects to Thursday with regard to
storms being mostly elevated, some warm advection may be realized
late in the day across our far southeast counties. As such, there
is the potential for strong surface-based storms in these areas
with SBCAPE values approaching 1000 j kg and steep lapse rates
aloft in excess of 7 deg c km, resulting in total MUCAPE values
approaching 1500 j kg. This will likely be the beginning of our
concerns for the threat of severe storms, with at least a marginal
severe weather threat extending northward to areas along and east
of i-35 35w Friday night into Saturday morning as we continue
seeing impressive, southwesterly deep layer shear in excess of 60
knots along with the increasing instability.

The one big unknown factor in advance of our vigorous mid-level
trough and associated surface dryline will be how much preceding
warm sector convective activity occurs and how it affects (or
corrupts) the thermodynamic environment. Regardless, there will at
least be a threat for damaging winds and large hail, to go along
with locally heavy rainfall and minor flood concerns across
eastern parts of the region. Another possible mitigating factor
for a higher-end severe weather event is everything coming
together during the nocturnal hours Friday night into Saturday
morning, except possibly our far eastern counties where the
surface dryline doesn't exit until midday or early afternoon
Saturday. Otherwise, the storm threat will end rapidly west of
i-35 by late Saturday morning and by mid-afternoon in the east as
the system lifts northeast away from the region and a cold front
overtakes the surface dryline. I'm still concerned with the gusty
west or west-northwest winds of 20-30 mph that will enter areas
west of i-35 in the wake of the dryline. Combined with low
humidity and mild temperatures, there's the potential for elevated
fire weather concerns west of i-35 35w Saturday afternoon.

However, it does appear low level cold advection may arrive sooner
than what was anticipated 24 hours ago. That, combined with off
and on days of at least light rainfall, should keep fire weather
concerns from getting out of hand.

North and central texas finally will see a much-needed, relative
break from any threat of winter or strong-severe weather Sunday
and beyond, though low rain chances will return early next week.

Breezy north winds and temperatures falling into the 30s and 40s
will make for a cool start to Sunday, but winds will slack off by
Sunday afternoon with the arrival of a broad surface high.

Plentiful sunshine will allow temperatures to warm back into the
upper 50s along the red river to the lower-mid 60s elsewhere. Mild
conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday in advance of the
next cold front. Highs generally in the 60s are expected along
with low chances for a few light showers across the southeast half
of the cwa.

05

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 55 39 53 46 59 0 0 10 40 70
waco 59 38 55 48 63 0 0 20 50 70
paris 51 36 52 43 58 0 0 20 40 70
denton 54 36 53 44 58 0 0 10 30 60
mckinney 53 35 52 45 59 0 0 10 40 70
dallas 55 41 54 48 60 0 0 10 40 70
terrell 55 38 54 46 62 0 0 20 40 70
corsicana 57 41 54 47 63 0 0 30 50 70
temple 60 39 56 48 64 0 5 20 50 70
mineral wells 57 37 56 43 59 0 0 5 30 60

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

25 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX6 mi43 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F34°F82%1016.3 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX6 mi41 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F33°F81%1016.9 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX8 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F34°F86%1016.2 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX15 mi41 minW 410.00 miOvercast39°F34°F85%1016.9 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX17 mi49 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F33°F81%1016.6 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX18 mi43 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F34°F79%1016.3 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX19 mi43 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F33°F79%1015.6 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX24 mi43 minWSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds38°F34°F86%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from GKY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N6NE6NE7E8NE8N7N8N8NW7N7NW7NW6W3NW3W4W6NW10W9W8W7W8W6SW4
1 day agoN14N12N12
G18
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N12N12N12N12NE10N8NE11NE11N8N6N8N11NE9NE8NE10NE6E8NE8NE9NE8
2 days agoNW17N10NW9NW11N9N11N10N10N9N9N8N7N6NE4N5N5NE13
G18
NE10N9N13NE14
G19
NE13N9N13

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.