Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Hill, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:19PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 9:38 AM CST (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 11:05PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Hill, TX
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location: 32.63, -96.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 201216 aaa
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
616 am cst Tue feb 20 2018

Aviation
12z tafs
a very complicated forecast is in store over the next 24-30 hours
(and really through much of the week) as upper-level disturbances
bring numerous chances for showers and storms to the area
terminals. After the early-morning complex of showers and storms,
a brief relative minimum in activity is expected through the mid-
late morning hours within the somewhat more subsident airmass.

Still, some showers and embedded storms will be possible. Skies in
the wake of this activity have gone predominantlyVFR. By late
this morning and into the early afternoon, the next round of
showers and storms is expected as another disturbance moves
overhead. Was not quite confident enough in timing to introduce a
tempo group for -tsra, but this may be necessary in the 15z
amendments if high-resolution guidance continues to indicate
similar convective coverage. The sharp cold front should arrive
near or just after 21 00z at the metroplex airports with a quick
north wind shift. While there may continue to be some embedded
thunder as the front passes, the next batch of more widespread ts
looks to arrive after midnight tonight as the next round of large-
scale ascent overspreads the region.

At waco, periodic showers may develop and move across the
airfield, with thunder becoming increasingly more likely after 20z
ahead of the approaching cold front. As the front passes, around
21 06z, increasing ascent atop the frontal inversion should result
in an uptick in convective activity through the overnight hours.

Overall, CIGS are expected to favor a mixture ofVFR and MVFR,
with gradual deterioration behind the cold front late tonight.

Carlaw

Short term issued 352 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
today and tonight
a rather complex forecast will evolve today and tonight as a
drawn-out active unsettled weather pattern begins across the
region. In the immediate term, the first wave of ascent is
arriving early this morning out of the concho valley, and this
has helped to initiate a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
which will continue to rapidly push north and eastward within
the fast southwesterly flow aloft. Effective deep layer shear
values are running on the order of 40-50 kts, and this has been
supporting persistent mid-level rotation in these storms with high
velocities showing up aloft. Thus far, this enhanced momentum
seems to be having a difficult time making it down to the surface
and high-res guidance insists on a gradual weakening trend, but
this activity may still pose a strong and gusty wind and small
hail threat as it races towards the metroplex through the 4-6 am
time frame. Anticipate that additional convection will fire in
northeast to southwest oriented bands through the morning hours,
aligned roughly along and just west of the i-35 corridor where the
highest pops have been painted. Some locally heavy rainfall and
associated isolated hydrologic issues are possible with this
initial activity along the i-35 corridor, but most of the shower
and thunderstorm activity should move along at a decent enough
clip to preclude any substantial issues.

During the afternoon hours, the sharp arctic front, which is
currently draped just north of i-40 44 in oklahoma (and actually
this front is slowly easing back north and west as a warm front at
this hour!) will begin to make its notable southward push. The
faster nam, 3km nam, and rap output was generally followed for
the front timing given the much colder (and denser) airmass
analyzed across far northwest oklahoma and southern kansas than
earlier guidance had indicated. With this faster guidance, the
initial north wind shift is forecast to arrive across our
northwest counties around 4 pm, into the metroplex around 6-8 pm,
and then through our southeastern counties by daybreak Wednesday.

Additional showers and storms should blossom ahead of the surging
cold front late this morning and through the afternoon, and storm
training may begin at this point as upwind corfidi vector
velocities decrease to under 5-10 kts along with boundary-parallel
cloud-bearing flow. Pwat values are forecast to be in the 1.6 to
1.8 inch range, which are easily records for the date, and would
even be near-record values by april and may standards. The
probability-matched mean QPF products from the href indicate the
axis of heaviest rainfall into the early evening hours stretching
from near i-35 35w to a paris to hillsboro line which seems
reasonable and this appears to be well represented by the current
flood watch.

The other threat to contend with today will be the potential for
some strong to perhaps severe storms in the warm sector this
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings ahead of the front show
a thermodynamic shear space which could support storms with a
damaging wind or even an isolated tornado threat where surface-
based instability resides (south and east of a sulphur springs to
hamilton line). Given the surging nature of the front, it's
possible any initially surface-based convection gets undercut, but
the presence of very strong 0-1 km shear is a concern, especially
if the front hangs up a bit more than forecast.

Finally, an additional wave of warm advection isentropic ascent
is forecast to materialize late tonight across the concho valley.

This should lead to the development of additional showers and
perhaps some isolated storms above the shallow frontal inversion
across our western counties. Temperatures here will be falling
through the 30s, and am growing a bit more concerned about some
freezing rain potential developing towards daybreak on Wednesday
north and west of an eastland to gainesville line. Each subsequent
nam SREF run is coming in colder, and forecast soundings are
showing steepening 850-600 mb lapse rates facilitating increasing
mucapes late tonight supporting the potential for elevated
convection. With the exceptionally warm air just off the surface
(+12 to +14 c at 900 mb), any heavier convection may drag this
warmer air to the surface, reducing potential impacts from any
freezing rain, but this threat will continue to be scrutinized
very closely today.

Carlaw

Long term issued 352 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
Wednesday through Monday
the cold front will have moved through the southeastern parts of
the forecast area as of 6 am Wednesday. Lift over the frontal
boundary will be on-going. This along with the upper level trough
remaining across the western united states, will result in
continued chances of rain. The heaviest rain should shift to the
east of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon but some light to
occasionally moderate rain will continue area wide Wednesday
afternoon. With the cold advection behind the front, cloud cover
and precipitation, temperatures will not rise much, if at all,
during the day. After early morning lows in the lower 30s
northwest to the upper 50s southeast, daytime highs will only be
in the mid 30s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

Rain chances should decrease some Wednesday night, especially
across the west as we await the next shortwave. However, some
chances will remain and as temperatures will be near or slightly
below freezing across the northwest, have included a mention of
rain of freezing rain for the overnight Wednesday night into the
early morning Thursday period for locations along and northwest of
an eastland to bowie line. Fortunately temperatures are expected
to be 30-32 degrees and given how warm we have been, no
significant icing on roads is expected at this time. Rain chances
will increase Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Lows
Wednesday night will range from around 30 northwest to the mid 40s
southeast. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 40s northwest
to the mid 60s southeast.

Chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
Thursday night through Saturday. As the upper level trough over
the southwestern united states moves eastward across the rockies,
a lee side low will develop. In response to the developing low,
surface winds across the forecast area will come around the south
Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night will range from the upper
30s northwest to the upper 50s southeast and highs Friday will
range from the upper 50s northwest to around 70 degrees southeast.

The upper level trough will finally move east out of the rockies
and across the plains Saturday. As this system moves east, rain
chances should end across all but the extreme eastern zones by
Saturday night.

58

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 74 37 42 38 51 100 90 90 50 40
waco 74 42 50 40 54 90 90 100 50 50
paris 73 40 46 43 55 100 90 100 70 40
denton 73 35 39 36 49 90 70 90 50 40
mckinney 73 36 43 39 51 100 90 90 50 40
dallas 73 37 44 40 52 100 90 90 50 40
terrell 74 39 48 42 55 100 90 100 60 40
corsicana 75 42 51 44 56 80 90 100 70 40
temple 74 44 53 41 54 90 90 100 50 50
mineral wells 75 34 38 33 46 70 50 90 40 60

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Flood watch through Wednesday evening for txz093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>161.

90 58


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX6 mi48 minSE 910.00 miOvercast68°F64°F88%1012.9 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX6 mi45 minSE 1410.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%1011.4 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX8 mi45 minSSE 1510.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1011.9 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX15 mi43 minSSE 14 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F63°F84%1013.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Forth Worth Spinks Airport, TX17 mi52 minSSE 10 G 207.00 miOvercast68°F64°F88%1012.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX18 mi45 minSE 16 G 2010.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1012.2 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX19 mi45 minSSE 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast70°F64°F82%1011.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX24 mi45 minSE 1610.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from GPM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13
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1 day agoE6E6SE6SE10
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SE7SE4CalmSE4SE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmS7SW7N4N4NE6N7N7N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE5SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.