Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Hill, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:27PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:09 PM CST (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Hill, TX
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location: 32.63, -96.99     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 151732 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
1132 am cst Thu nov 15 2018

18z tafs
south to southwest winds around 5-10 kts will prevail through the
valid TAF period. Few-sct high cloud cover will drift across the
region later today and tonight. A weak cold front will move
through oklahoma late tonight and may approach the red river
towards daybreak on Friday. At this time, the front is not
expected to make it to the metroplex, but may result in a brief
veering of the low-level winds to out of the west or west-
southwest before they return to the south during the afternoon.


Short term issued 335 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
today through Saturday
the next few days will largely feature benign weather across the
region with a continued warming trend heading into the weekend.

After a cold start this morning with most areas near below
freezing, temperatures should climb rather quickly thanks to the
return of southwest winds and plenty of sunshine. Highs today will
be 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees
below normal. Flow aloft has become more zonal over the past 24
hours now that an upper low has exited the area towards the
midwest. However, another shortwave trough is located upstream
over northern mexico which will be swinging across texas later
today. With very limited moisture in place, this feature will
pass with little effect on sensible weather other than an
increase in cirrus later today and tonight. This disturbance will
also vaguely aid in dragging a weak surface cold front into the
southern plains tonight, but this boundary is expected to stall
near or north of the red river before daybreak Friday. Just ahead
of the front, some moisture pooling and calm winds could
contribute to the development of patchy fog near the red river
Friday morning, although this potential is too low to include in
the forecast right now. Lingering high clouds may aid in keeping
temperatures a few degrees warmer than guidance, while also
further limiting the fog potential. Am expecting lows to fall into
the upper 30s and low 40s area-wide.

Friday should be a pleasant day with high temperatures finally
returning to near normal after spending more than a week below
normal. Some modest moisture return will also resume as a low-
level high pressure circulation shifts eastward along the gulf
coast. Deeper southerly flow will allow dewpoints to return to the
40s throughout the day while the aforementioned stalled front
quickly lifts northward. A more substantial moisture increase
will occur late Friday and into Saturday as broad troughing
develops over the central conus. There should be a gradual
increase in cloud cover throughout the day, but temperatures will
still manage to be near or even slightly above normal thanks to
continued warm advection. Another cold front will be approaching
the area from the north by Saturday afternoon, and should arrive
in the forecast area Saturday evening. This boundary will bring
the next chance for rainfall to the area, as discussed below.


Long term issued 335 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
Saturday night through thanksgiving eve
a couple of mid-level shortwave disturbances will move east over
the central and southern plains Saturday night, with the stronger
of these across colorado kansas and nebraska. The gradual
amplification of the mid-level flow aloft will support a cold
front down the high plains and into areas along and west of the
i-35 corridor through daybreak Sunday, before exiting the CWA to
the south and east by early Sunday afternoon. Compared to models
24 hours ago, moisture via precipitable water values and
associated instability aloft appear more meager than they did
before. This seems reasonable considering how the gulf of mexico
has been well-scoured by recent cold frontal intrusions,
particularly our recent arctic cold front.

Low chances for light showers are forecast across mainly our
eastern counties and where the best modified moisture flux from
the scoured northwest gulf of mexico is expected to occur in
advance of our cold front. Though this airmass is not expected to
be as deep or cold as the most recent passage, low level cold
advection and associated cloud cover will result in much cooler
and brisk conditions Sunday, especially across the north and west.

With an earlier frontal passage, our northwest counties may not
make it out of the mid-upper 40s, while the 50s will prevail
elsewhere. Our far southeast counties "could" creep briefly into
the lower 60s by midday Sunday before the cold front passes
through. A few showers may linger early Sunday evening across our
far southeast counties, though the majority of area should see
dry and brisk conditions continuing Sunday night. Monday morning
lows will crash into the 30s north of i-20 where at least partial
clearing is expected, while lingering cloud cover across central
texas will provide some insulation and hold temperatures up into
the lower 40s.

Cool surface high pressure and clouds persisting across south of
i-20 30 keep Monday on the cool side with highs only warming into
the 50s. The split of clouds from mostly clear north and mostly
cloudy south Monday night is expected to continue as Tuesday
morning low temperatures fall into the mid-upper 30s where
radiational cooling is more prevalent versus the low-mid 40s
across central texas where a deck of mid-high cloudiness is
expected to persist. It's quite possible that some fog development
could occur along and north of the breakpoint of clouds and where
better radiational cooling occurs, as weak low level warm
advection ensues. At this time, confidence remains to low to
introduce any mention of fog at this time, but it does bear

Low level southerly flow and warm advection do increase by Tuesday
night with the CWA continuing to be bisected by mid-high cloud
cover south of i-20. Only a slight warm up is expected Tuesday
with highs in the mid-upper 50s, as better low level warm
advection holds off until later Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Tuesday night's lows will continue to be the coolest north of
i-20, but increasing surface dew point temperatures should combine
with the aforementioned lingering cloud cover over central texas
to hold low temperatures up in the 40s areawide. Once again, some
fog development may occur, but will wait to see how this plays out
before mentioning the possibility in the forecast.

By Wednesday Wednesday night(and even into thanksgiving), rain and
convective chances will be on the increase, as ripples of shortwave
energy within the southern branch of split flow aloft across the
southern CONUS and move east across the area. With this being a
high impact period for holiday travel both on the ground and in
the air, plenty of coordination was conducted with surrounding
offices. It is pretty evident deterministic models are struggling
with this progressive energy aloft, timing, and moisture
availability regarding rain chances in the far extended. A
conservative approach was preferred with just low-mid range
chances for showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder due to
steepening mid-level lapse rates aloft for Wednesday Wed night.

Highs Wednesday will remain below normal, but not overly chilly
with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Lows Wednesday night will only
fall into the 40s.

At this time, impacts should remain fairly minimal for our part
of the country. That being said, continue to monitor not only our
forecasts, but for where you may be traveling as well for the
holiday as some parts of the country could be impacted by winter
weather around the thanksgiving holiday.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 62 43 68 46 69 0 0 0 0 0
waco 62 40 67 42 70 0 0 0 0 0
paris 57 38 64 42 66 0 0 0 0 0
denton 62 40 68 43 67 0 0 0 0 5
mckinney 59 40 65 43 67 0 0 0 0 0
dallas 61 44 67 47 68 0 0 0 0 0
terrell 58 39 67 43 68 0 0 0 0 0
corsicana 58 40 65 44 69 0 0 0 0 0
temple 62 40 68 42 70 0 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 66 40 69 41 68 0 0 0 0 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories

90 90

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX6 mi79 minSSE 810.00 miClear63°F33°F34%1021.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX6 mi76 minS 710.00 miFair63°F37°F38%1020.5 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX8 mi76 minSSW 610.00 miFair63°F32°F31%1020.4 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX15 mi74 minS 710.00 miFair61°F33°F36%1021.7 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX17 mi83 minS 7 G 1510.00 miFair64°F35°F34%1021.3 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX18 mi76 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds65°F32°F29%1020.4 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX19 mi76 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds63°F33°F33%1019.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX24 mi76 minSSW 810.00 miFair64°F32°F30%1020 hPa

Wind History from GPM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S4S4S3CalmS3S3S3S3S4S6S3S8S8S8S8
1 day agoNW8NW8NW8NW4NW4NW4NW5NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3W4W6NW4NW6W6NW6NW4W6NW6
2 days agoNW16

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.