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FXUS64 KFWD 181922 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 222 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 133 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ /This Weekend/

A quiet weekend with regard to rain chances, which will be NIL with mid level heights on the rise with an upper ridge building over the region. What it will be is very warm and humid, as sunny skies allow for maximum insolation. Unfortunately, a lot of the sun's energy will be used to to evaporate moisture from the soil and plentiful green vegetation (evapotranspiration). I have decided to undercut NBM guidance temperatures both this afternoon and again on Sunday by 2-3 degrees just solely for this reason, despite the synoptic set up supporting hotter temperatures.
Afternoon temperatures will still heat up to around 90 degrees and combine with elevated humidity values for heat index values into the mid 90s. Though not extremely oppressive, it still won't be the most pleasant outdoors during the peak heating of the afternoon through sunset. This will be reminder that the long dog days of summer are just around the next corner and will be here before we know it.

Southerly winds 5 to 10 mph tonight will hold low temperatures up around around 70 degrees around sunrise Sunday. Patchy fog and a brief window of low clouds through mid morning are anticipated once again across primarily Central Texas. Otherwise, a broad surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley and low pressure along the lee of the Southern Rockies will help increase the surface pressures gradient across the Southern Plains on Sunday.
Proficient mixing by midday will also help increase southerly winds to between 10-15 mph with gusts exceeding 20 mph by early afternoon. This may provide a little relief from the very warm and humid conditions, but not by much. Dress lightly and if working or playing outdoors (whichever it may be) for any longer amount of time. Be sure to remain hydrated and occasionally take a break in the shade or in an air-conditioned vehicle or home to avoid overheating.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will keep the beginning of this upcoming week warm, dry, and humid across North and Central Texas. A deepening longwave trough will move onshore in the western CONUS early this week, eventually shunting the ridge further into the deep south. In advance of this incoming trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur to our northwest and increase wind speeds through Tuesday in response.
While the slightly elevated winds may help alleviate the heat, increased WAA from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday will allow afternoon heat indices to peak near 100 degrees across the majority of the region. With many end-of-school outdoor activities going on during the afternoon hours, caution will need to be taken when spending longer periods outside. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take breaks in air conditioning/shade.

By Tuesday evening, a shortwave disturbance will round the base of the trough and eject to the northeast. Lift from this shortwave will interact with present moisture and instability to promote isolated chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday night.
Immediately upstream of the initial disturbance, a stouter shortwave will swing across the Great Plains and send a cold front south across the Red River early Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible near and along the front as it pushes south. The front will end up stalling across North Texas as its upper level support quickly races off to the east Wednesday evening. Coverage in storms ahead/along the stalled boundary will increase on Thursday as another shortwave transits across the region and ushers the boundary northward as a warm front. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to promote strong to severe storms, but it is still a bit too early to pinpoint more exact locations, threats, and intensity.
Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast for mid-late this week as we will have more refined details the closer we get. Lingering rain chances will end on Friday, with a temporary lull in precipitation expected ahead of yet another incoming shortwave disturbance to our northwest.

Switching back to temperatures and heat: slightly "cooler" temperatures in the 80s are expected midweek thanks to the front and rain chances, but a warming trend is expected going into the weekend as ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains.
Continued high humidity and warming temperatures will push heat index values back into the mid-upper 90s for most. Friday and Saturday will once again be days to keep an eye on outside conditions as heat indices could be 100+ degrees in some areas, the highest of the forecast period. With next weekend being so far out, there is quite a degree of uncertainty in the exact temperature/heat index and locations. However, if similar guidance trends continue over the next handful of days, heat safety messaging will need to be ramped up for next weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/Issued 133 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ /18z TAFs/

VFR. Sustained S winds around 5-10 kts, becoming 10-15 kts after after 15z Sunday with a few gusts > 20 kts. Brief low MVFR (or possibly IFR) cigs will be possible at KACT between 12z-15z Sunday, but won't last long.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 91 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 69 88 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 66 89 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 69 90 71 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 68 90 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 71 92 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 68 89 70 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 69 90 71 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 69 88 69 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 90 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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