Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:00 PM EST (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:43PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 322 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Friday...
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..S winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 56 degrees.
AMZ300 322 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A nearly stationary front to the north will drop into the area on Friday before lifting back north as a warm front Saturday afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through from the west Sunday, followed by high pressure on Monday. A low pressure system could affect the area during the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 212053
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
353 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
A nearly stationary front to the north will drop into the area
on Friday before lifting back north as a warm front Saturday
afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through from the west
Sunday, followed by high pressure on Monday. A low pressure
system could affect the area during the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A stationary front is forecasted to meander over the charleston
tri-county area or just to the north. Low level moisture south
of this front will keep dew points in the 60s. This moisture
combined with fairly light SE winds should set the stage for a
foggy night. Models are in very good agreement showing patches
of fog this evening, with areal coverage and lower visibilities
after midnight. If trends continue, dense fog advisories will be
needed. Models show we may have some precipitation, initially
inland, then elsewhere during later in the evening. The
precipitation threat then moves further north towards daybreak.

Qpf should generally be 0.1" or less. Temperatures should be in
the lower 60s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
A stalled front will be positioned just north of the forecast area
Friday morning. Through the day, the front is expected to slowly
drop south as a wedge of high pressure extends down the east coast.

This will set up for a tricky temperature forecast. Southeast
georgia counties will be within the warm sector for much of the day,
and highs could again reach around 80 low 80s. Further north,
temperatures will be dependent on the speed of the front moving
through. Rain chances will cap out in the 20-30% range. Large scale
forcing isn't impressive but with the front and ample low level
moisture, light showers will be possible.

The wedge will hold strong Friday night, then the front is expected
to lift back north on Saturday as a warm front. Models have been too
quick in this progression recently, so it will be another difficult
forecast day for temperatures. By Sunday, the forecast area will be
solidly within the warm sector. A cold front is then forecast to
sweep through mid-day. A quick shot of rain will accompany the
front, however models indicate the precipitation will be in a
weakening state as it moves through the area. Rainfall totals will
be a quarter of an inch or less, with higher amounts expected across
interior zones.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Dry high pressure will build over the area Sunday night through
Tuesday. Upper disturbances could affect the area Tuesday night
through Thursday though there are considerable model
differences with respect to how much precipitation occurs.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
18z tafs
areas of stratus fog are hugging the coastal waters while
pockets of stratocumulus are over the land areas. Chs and sav
could bounce back and forth fromVFR to MVFR due to ceilings
for the next few hours. MVFR is expected to prevail for a few
hours this evening due to ceilings. Overnight, lots of low
level moisture and light winds will allow fog to develop at
both terminals. While the start time has some margin of error,
ifr should prevail. Conditions should gradually improve after
daybreak Friday.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions in low ceilings and or
reduced visibility likely Friday night through Sunday morning.

Marine
Tonight: satellite imagery and webcams show areas of dense fog
persisting along along the immediate coast. There may be some
fluctuation's in visibility in the next few hours, or maybe
areas where it completely clears out as we pass peak heating.

However, conditions are expected to worsen this evening and
overnight as southerly winds continue to usher a warm, moist
airmass over the cooler shelf waters. The dense fog advisories
were extended through the night. We also issued one proactively
for the charleston harbor starting this evening and lasting
through the night. Winds should be no more than 10 kt while seas
range from 2-4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: a backdoor cold front will drop south
through the waters on Friday, turning the winds from the south to
northeast. A pinched gradient in the charleston county waters could
result in marginal small craft advisory conditions Friday night. It
looks like a fairly short window in this occurring, so have held off
on issuing an advisory at this time. The front will then lift back
north as a warm front later Saturday, bringing winds back to a
south southwest direction. Speeds will increase on Sunday ahead of a
cold front, and more solid small craft advisory conditions are
expected for portions of the waters. A bout of SCA seas is expected
to develop Tuesday and persist into Wednesday or Thursday as long
fetch northeast flow sets up.

Elevated dew points and southerly winds will continue to favor sea
fog into Friday. Visibilities will gradually improve through the day
as northeast flow develops, first beginning in the northern marine
zones then moving south as the day progresses. The marine dense fog
advisory end times follow this trend. Another round of sea fog is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday prior to a cold frontal
passage.

Tides coastal flooding
It's not out of the question that we could reach coastal flood
advisory levels at charleston harbor with the high tide Friday
evening. The 5.9 ft mllw astronomical tide would only require a
1.1 ft anomaly which is quite possible based on the latest
forecast for 15-20 kt NE winds along the charleston county
coast.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Friday
for amz330.

Dense fog advisory until 1 pm est Friday for amz352.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est Friday for amz350.

Dense fog advisory until 4 pm est Friday for amz354.

Near term...

short term...

long term... Jrl
aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi60 min SSW 5.1 G 6 61°F 1020 hPa (-1.2)61°F
CHTS1 8 mi48 min S 6 G 8 70°F 58°F1019.2 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 19 mi52 min SSW 7.8 G 12 60°F 56°F1019.8 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi75 min ESE 1.9 73°F 1019 hPa66°F
41033 37 mi52 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 1019.3 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi30 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 65°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi65 minSSE 69.00 miFair70°F64°F83%1019.3 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC18 mi64 minS 910.00 miA Few Clouds80°F64°F60%1018.5 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi65 minS 69.00 miFair73°F66°F78%1019 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN5CalmN4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE7S8SE6S9S6
1 day agoNE18NE14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE8NE9
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NE14NE14NE11NE14N13N11N12N11N11
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Beach, Folly River bridge, Folly Island, South Carolina
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Folly Beach
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Thu -- 02:56 AM EST     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:38 AM EST     6.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM EST     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     6.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.80.9-0.6-1.2-0.60.72.54.15.56.36.35.53.920.2-0.8-0.80.21.73.24.65.66.15.7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 12:33 AM EST     -3.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:32 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:05 AM EST     2.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:58 PM EST     -3.22 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:33 PM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.1-3.2-2.3-0.80.71.92.42.21.81.1-0.2-1.6-2.8-3.2-2.7-1.5-0.11.2221.81.40.4-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.