Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM   Moonset 1:06 PM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1155 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Areas of fog after midnight. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 73 degrees.

AMZ300 1155 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the southeast through much of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 021557 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1157 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No major changes were made for the noon update. The forecast is on track.

Today: Expect a healthy cumulus field to develop as temperatures rise. Any cumulus should scour out later this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Forecast soundings are not as capped as what was depicted yesterday, but still expect a rain-free day for most areas. Will need to watch for a few brief pop ups near the sea breeze where dewpoints will pool back into the upper 60s/near 70. Gridded pops were held below mentionable thresholds for now. It should be noted a few of the CAMs do depict isolated showers/tstms, mainly over Southeast South Carolina where convergence along the sea breeze will be a bit stronger. Typically, convergence along a pure sea breeze circulation is not as strong as a resultant sea breeze, so this will be watched carefully. Highs from the upper 80s/near 90 inland with cooler conditions closer to the beaches look on track.

Tonight: Very little change to the pattern surface and aloft.
Winds will quickly decouple this evening, allowing for good radiational cooling to occur. Actual lows will be similar to what they were early this morning. Subsidence aloft and considerable boundary layer moisture will again lead to fog developing after midnight. For now we show areas of fog all counties, but dense fog is likely, and another Dense Fog Advisory could be required. We included mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Shortwave ridging will persist Friday, though the ridge axis will move off the coast during the afternoon. Strong mid-level subsidence is expected to maintain dry conditions over the area, though we can't rule out a late day shower or thunderstorm far inland if something moves in from the west. Highs will be in the upper 80s except along the coast where prevailing onshore flow enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze keeps temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Increasing moisture and a series of shortwaves will move through Saturday through Sunday. Prevailing onshore flow should produce a robust sea breeze that will move inland fairly early in the afternoon both days. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are expected, especially farther inland where the sea breeze interacts with greater instability. Although activity should wane overnight, the continuation of upper level energy moving through Saturday night could sustain at least isolated nocturnal convection. Highs both days will reach the low/mid 80s except near the coast where a marine layer will reduce temps.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Monday should again feature scattered diurnal convection given a weak shortwave moving through, coincident with moderate surface based instability. A strong subtropical ridge will build over the area Tuesday through late week, bringing dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures. Record high temps are not out of the question on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to climb well into the 90s.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
02/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The main concern is on fog/stratus overnight into early Friday morning. 12z guidance is trending lower with both vsbys and cigs later tonight as a warm/moist airmass remains in place. Synoptically, the pattern will be similar to last night, so guidance is likely trending in the right direction. The 18z TAFs for all three terminals will highlight conditions dropping below each airfield's respective alternate minimums by 08z with conditions occasionally dropping right to or just below airfield minimums in the 09-13z period. It is very possible all terminals may become completely fogged in early Friday with vsbys 1/4SM and VV001-002. The need to introduce lower conditions will be reevaluated with the 00z TAF cycle, but a lower trend has been initiated with this TAF cycle. VFR should quickly return once fog/stratus mix out Friday morning, roughly in the 13-14z period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in overnight/early morning fog and stratus. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.

MARINE
Today: The local waters will remain near the western side of Atlantic ridging, resulting in light winds veering around to the NE this morning, then to the E-SE this afternoon. Even with local sea breeze enhancements, speeds will be no more than about 10-15 kt. Seas will hold around 2 ft.

Tonight: The synoptic pattern is basically the same, and E-SE winds are again no more than about 10 kt, with seas only 2 feet throughout. As of this time with an onshore flow, fog is likely not a concern.

Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain benign conditions over the marine area Friday through Tuesday.
SE winds early in the period will steadily switch to S and then SW. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 kt with seas no higher than 4 ft. The pattern will favor a good sea breeze each afternoon along the coast, with winds in Charleston Harbor potentially gusting 15-20 kt at times.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Folly Island (outer coast)
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Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:38 PM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:35 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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