Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Folly Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:38PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 9:57 AM EDT (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 7:26PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 659 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt...becoming ne in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves can be higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted...waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature...63 degrees.
AMZ300 659 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A weak cold front will stall over or near the area on Wednesday before moving back north Thursday night into Friday as a warm front. Another cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday followed by drier high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather could return as soon as next Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Folly Beach, SC
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location: 32.66, -79.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 281128
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
728 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will stall over or near the area on
Wednesday before moving back north Thursday night into Friday as a
warm front. Another cold front will move through Friday night into
Saturday followed by drier high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather
could return as soon as next Monday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 720 am: isolate showers were located offshore, expected to
continue to track to the ene. A few weak showers could move over
the inland counties this morning. The headline for today will be
the record to near record high temperatures. Conditions should
warm quickly through the morning hours, then temps will level
off in the low to mid 80s. I will update the forecast to tweak
sky, pops, and temps.

As of 4 am: water vapor satellite channel indicated that a weak
mid level vort MAX sliding across the lower savannah river
valley. Kclx radar detected isolated showers from over the radar
site south to the ga coast. These showers will tracking north
across the coast plain. I will anticipate that the showers will
continue move north across CWA through early this morning,
likely linking to the southern end of the band of convection
pushing across the piedmont of the carolinas. Shower coverage
should decrease within and hour or two following sunrise,
reducing pops below schc.

This afternoon, the mid level s/w will ripple over the mid atlantic
states, keeping the passage of the synoptic scale forcing well north
of the forecast area. By early this afternoon, a cold front is
forecast to slide off the east facing slopes of the southern
appalachians, but moving very slowly ese. As the front approaches
the forecast area, sfc winds will shift from the sw. The combination
of partly sunny conditions, off shore winds, and slight
compressional heating ahead of the front should result in
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than observed yesterday. In fact,
i will forecast 86 degrees at kchs, which exceeds today's record
high by a degree. During the mid to late afternoon, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms should pass over the inland
counties.

Tonight, debris clouds should dissipate across the cwa
during the evening hours. The cold front is forecast to slowly
backdoor across the forecast area. The approach and passage of the
front will likely keep winds steady from the west. Using a blend of
guidance, min temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s
inland to the low 60s across SE ga.

Short term /Wednesday through Friday/
Atlantic high pressure will give way to a cold front Wednesday which
should make it into southeast ga as high pressure builds from the
north. Drier air and minimal synoptic forcing will yield dry
conditions Wednesday, although cannot rule out a few showers and/or
storms near the altamaha river which will be closer to the stalled
front. It should remain rain-free until later Thursday when deeper
moisture returns and isentropic ascent increases across the area
north of the stalled front which will be starting to move back north
as a warm front. Thus, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
(mainly across ga) are expected. Rain chances will increase further
Thursday night into Friday as the warm front lifts north through the
area and moisture/forcing increase. Although wind fields will be
strengthening, instability appears minimal Friday and thus the
threat for severe weather is low at this time. Either way it should
be a breezy day with gusts up to around 25 mph.

Temperatures should push into the lower to mid 80s most inland
locales Wednesday, with some upper 80s possible given the offshore
flow and frontal compression. On Thursday, high pressure building
from the north will keep it a bit cooler, especially across sc where
it should stay below 80 degrees except close to the savannah river.

Once again wouldn't be surprised if upper 80s occurred Thursday
toward inland portions of the altamaha river closer to the stalled
front. Temperatures Friday will be moderated by the clouds/rain,
likely only reaching close to 80 inland. Prevailing onshore winds
will keep coastal locations much cooler during the daytime through
the period.

Long term /Friday night through Monday/
A cold front will push through Friday night into Saturday followed
by drier high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather could return early
next week as a storm system moves across the deep south, although
there remains significant uncertainty regarding the timing of best
rain chances. Highest confidence in rain will be the first part of
Friday night when showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, are
expected. Temperatures should remain above normal through the
period.

Aviation /11z Tuesday through Saturday/
Vfr. At 1110z, a few showers were drifting just offshore. Based
on the timing and placement of a h5 s/w, showers should push
north out of the forecast area by sunrise. Latest cams generally
agree that convection upstream over ga will weaken as it pushes
east of the fall line. By 18z, a cold front is expected to
slowly pushes east of the southern appalachians. The forecast
area will remain between the cold front to the northwest and sfc
high pressure off the atlantic coast of fl. The sfc pattern
will yield steady SW winds across the region. During this
afternoon, forecast soundings from the nam12 indicate that the
mixed layer will rise above 5 kft, resulting in gusts into the
20kts. Winds should weaken after sunset, steady SW winds will
remain through this evening and overnight. The cold front is
forecast to slowly backdoor across the terminals late tonight.

The approach and passage of the front will veer winds from the
nw during the pre dawn hours wed.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions possible Wed night/thu
morning due to low clouds and/or fog, then likely due to
showers/thunderstorms/low clouds, mainly Thu night into early fri
night.

Marine
The region will remain between a cold front across the carolina
piedmont and high pressure off the fl atlantic coast. This pattern
should result in a 2-3 mb pressure gradient across the forecast
area. South winds should gradually strengthen across the marine
zones, becoming gusty this afternoon. The highest wind gusts are
forecast to occur across amz350 in the low 20 kts. Swells should
remain between 3-4 feet today, portions of amz 350 and all of 374
will see 5 feet. Tonight, winds will shift from the west and weaken
as a backdoor cold front slides over the lowcountry. Wave heights
may decrease around 1 foot with the weaker offshore winds.

Wednesday through Sunday: a weak cold front will move into the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds to the north.

The front will return back north through the area as a warm front
Thursday night/Friday. A cold front will then move through Friday
night/early Saturday. At some point prior to the cold frontal
passage Saturday sea fog could develop across the cooler near shore
waters and lead to low visibilities.

Expect a high chance for advisories Thursday night across the outer
waters, expanding northward into the sc waters through Friday night
as strengthening winds build seas to 6-8 feet, highest beyond
20 nm.

Rip currents: high risk for rip currents along the sc coast and
moderate for ga today. Gusty winds and long period 3 foot swells
will likely produce rip currents. The combination of higher than
normal tides, onshore winds and swells in the surf zone will
support an enhanced risk for rip currents through mid week,
possibly lasting into Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
High tides could reach advisory levels,
mainly late Wednesday/Thursday, due to strengthening onshore winds
and swells impacting the coast. This could cause shallow to moderate
saltwater inundation in vulnerable coastal areas, possibly even
reaching major levels Thursday night. Thus, coastal flood advisories
are expected with a potential for watches/warnings as well.

Climate
Records for 03-28
max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kchs 85 2007 47 2011 65 1987 32 1969
ksav 89 1907 46 1955 67 1921 33 1955
kcxm 91 1907 48 1955 68 1921 37 1982

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... High risk for rip currents through this evening for scz048>051.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned/rjb
marine... Ned/rjb
tides/coastal flooding... Rjb
climate... Ned


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 2 mi58 min SSW 11 G 12 66°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.6)63°F
CHTS1 8 mi40 min SW 8 G 12 72°F 63°F1016.7 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 19 mi50 min SW 9.7 G 14 64°F 1016.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 29 mi73 min SSW 1 66°F 1017 hPa64°F
41033 37 mi50 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 62°F1016.6 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 45 mi68 min WSW 16 G 18 71°F 70°F6 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.8)63°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC5 mi63 minS 810.00 miFair68°F62°F83%1016.6 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC18 mi63 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 miFair70°F62°F78%1016.6 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC18 mi2 hrsSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F60°F81%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S10S10S11SE10
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S13S12S12S10S7S6S4S3CalmS5S6S5S7SW5S5S8SW6S5SW9
1 day agoSE6SE7S8S11S10S10SE10
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S10S7SE3SE5SE4SE6SE6SE4SE4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4
2 days agoE6E6E10E10SE8E9SE6SE6E6E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Island (outer coast), South Carolina
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Folly Island (outer coast)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:50 AM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.4-0.6-0.60.21.73.44.85.65.85.34.22.50.8-0.4-0.9-0.21.23.14.75.86.25.94.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM EDT     -3.00 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT     -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:14 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.9-2.8-1.8-0.50.81.82.11.81.40.7-0.5-1.8-2.8-3-2.3-10.41.62.32.11.61-0.1-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.