Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yemassee, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:46PM Friday October 19, 2018 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 614 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt, becoming N 5 kt later this evening, then W 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ300 614 Pm Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure north of the region will shift offshore tonight. A cold front will move through the area Saturday night, followed by high pressure prevailing into the middle of next week. Low pressure could approach the southeast u.s. NExt weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yemassee, SC
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location: 32.68, -80.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 192314
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
714 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure north of the region will shift offshore tonight.

A cold front will move through the area Saturday night,
followed by high pressure prevailing into the middle of next
week. Low pressure could approach the southeast u.S. Next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Late afternoon goes-e satellite data, surface observations and
a timely ship report from the container ship cma cmg thames
(ship id: 9ha3851) suggest weak low pressure has developed about
85 nm east of hilton head within a broad coastal through that
continues to lurk just offshore. Kclx shows a small cluster of
persistent showers near the low. This this activity should
remain offshore as the low slowly pulls away from the region
later this evening as the coastal trough begins to decay with
the approach a cold front from the west.

A weak south to southwest flow will dominate overnight as high
pressure offshore of the north carolina outer banks shifts
farther offshore. A mixture of mid and high-level cloudiness
will linger through the night. There are some indications that
enough clearing could occur early Saturday across the far
southern zones to support the development of some fog, some of
which could become locally dense at times. Kept fog in the
patchy category for now, but will need to readdress this later
this evening once the early morning hours come into the temporal
range of the narre-tl. Earlier sprinkles have dissipated and
expect a dry night to prevail. Lows will range from the lower
60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Saturday: the mid-levels will consist of high pressure centered off
the southeast coast of fl in the morning and a trough stretching
across the great lakes region. As time progresses the trough will
become more amplified, causing the high to weaken and move further
southward. Flow overhead will transition from the west to the
northwest. At the surface, weak troughing will be just off our coast
in the morning while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The
front is forecasted to move through the area during the evening
hours. Strong high pressure originating from the plains states will
approach during the overnight hours, with its southeastern periphery
extending into our region. Moisture is forecasted to increase ahead
of the front, with pwats peaking ~1.8". Naefs puts this value at
roughly 2 standard deviation above normal for this time of year. But
despite the moisture and lift from the front, models have been
lackluster with precipitation. They continue to keep the best
precipitation potential outside of our area, with this potential
decreasing as the front approaches. We tried to capture the small
time period of this potential as the front moves from west to east
during the day, followed by quick drying in the evening. Pops remain
in the low chance category with a total QPF of a few hundredths at
worst. With minimal instability, no thunderstorms are expected.

High temperatures will be well above normal ahead of the front.

Temperatures will drop behind the front, with the coolest
temperatures not arriving until around daybreak.

Lake winds: the combination of cold air advection over the warmer
waters of lake moultrie could cause wind gusts to approach 25 kt
around daybreak Sunday. It appears we'll come up just short of a
lake wind advisory, but it's still something mariners should monitor
given we're going into the time of year when we can start having
advisories.

Sunday and Monday: Sunday morning the mid-levels will consist of a
trough along the east coast and broad high pressure squashed south
of fl. The trough is forecasted to move offshore and deamplify with
time, while the high slowly tries to build back to the north. The
end result appears to be zonal flow over our area on Monday. At the
surface, a cold front will be quickly moving offshore Sunday morning
while strong high pressure is centered over mo. The high will
transition to the carolinas by late Monday. Despite mostly sunny
skies on Sunday, cold air advection within northeasterly flow will
lead to temperatures well below normal. Sunday night, the below
normal temperature trend will continue. Clear skies and very light
northeast winds will lead to good radiational cooling, allowing
temperatures to easily drop into the the 40s for most locations, the
upper 30s well inland. Temperatures do recover some on Monday, but
remain below normal. Additionally, some light showers will be
possible along the ga coast.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Conditions will remain mostly dry through the middle of next week as
dry cool high pressure prevails over the southeast united states.

However, a few showers associated with a weak coastal trough could
drift onshore (mainly over southeast georgia) within a northeast
flow Tuesday and Wednesday, before shower chances increase with a
more direct onshore flow by Thursday. Latest guidance in split in
regards to the track and strength of a low pressure system impacting
the area next weekend. Regardless of the track, the system should
bring at least chances of showers over southeast south carolina and
southeast georgia next weekend. In regards to temps, highs should
range in the mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday before clouds and
increasing shower chances keep MAX temps in the lower 70s Thursday
and Friday. Overnight lows should generally range in the mid upper
50s inland to lower 60s along the immediate coast.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Kchs:VFR.

Ksav:VFR for much of the period. Risk for low CIGS and possibly
vsbys will occur just before daybreak as some clearing coupled
with light winds could produce shallow ground fog and stratus.

Short term guidance is leaning more towardsVFR conditions, so
showed sct cloud layers at 400 ft 2500 ft for now. May consider
adding CIGS vsbys later this evening once the 09-12z time frame
reaches the narre-tl temporal window.

Extended aviation outlook: a cold front could bring brief flight
restrictions Saturday into Saturday night.VFR Sunday through
Wednesday.

Marine
Tonight: quiet marine conditions through tonight as the high
pressure system to the north loses its influence and a weak sw
to W flow develops late.

Saturday a cold front will approach from the west, allowing
southwesterly winds to gradually increase during the day. The
front will move through Saturday evening, causing winds to
quickly veer to the northwest and then north by daybreak Sunday.

The combination of cold air advection and a steep pressure
gradient behind the front will cause the winds to quickly rise
Saturday night. Wind gusts should reach near gale by daybreak
Sunday, mainly beyond 10 nm. A few gusts to gale force are not
out of the question across the northeastern tier of the
charleston coastal waters at this time. But the overall time
period and areal coverage do not appear to be enough to warrant
a gale watch. Seas will build in response to the winds, peaking
Sunday morning. The highest wind- driven seas are expected
further offshore. Small craft advisories for all of the coastal
waters and charleston harbor will be needed starting Saturday
night. Sunday the pressure gradient will lessen as the front
moves away from our area and high pressure builds from the west.

Additionally, cold air advection will wane. This will allow
winds and seas to trend downward. All of the advisories should
expire by late Sunday night, depending on how long it takes seas
to subside. By the middle of next week winds become more
northeast east as a weak coastal trough tries to develop off of
the southeast georgia coast.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi76 min ESE 1 75°F 1021 hPa67°F
41033 33 mi53 min Calm G 0
CHTS1 44 mi31 min N 1 G 2.9 75°F 78°F1021.4 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 45 mi31 min ENE 7 G 8 76°F 77°F1021.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 45 mi61 min E 7 G 7 75°F 1021.9 hPa (-0.8)64°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast75°F68°F79%1021.4 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC17 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F64°F78%1021.7 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC19 mi66 minN 07.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from NBC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE7N6N6NE10NE9NE7N7N8NE8N7N9NE11NE8NE75NE6E7E6E6E5SE4E4Calm
1 day agoNW3NW3CalmNW3N6N6NE6N7N7N6NE8NE14NE10NE11
G17
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2 days agoS6S6S6S4S5S5S6W3SW3SW6S5W5SW6SW7SW8W7W8NW9NW7NW11NW9NW7NW7NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Bluff Plantation, Combahee River, South Carolina
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Bluff Plantation
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Fri -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:07 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.70.711.52.12.62.92.92.62.11.61.10.80.711.422.533.232.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sheldon, Huspa Creek, Whale Branch, South Carolina
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Sheldon
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM EDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT     7.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:38 PM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:13 PM EDT     8.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.62.43.75.26.67.57.66.95.64.12.71.71.62.23.556.57.78.286.95.43.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.