Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:13 AM   Moonset 12:48 AM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 959 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Wed - SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds, becoming S 3 ft at 7 seconds. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 959 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A cold front will move through late Wednesday, followed by high pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 150216 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1016 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through late Wednesday, followed by high pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Local radars showing isolated shower and t-storm activity within a very moist southwest flow in advance of strong mid and upper level trough moving through the Tennessee Valley. In addition, there is at least 50-60 kt of winds at 500 mb and 90 kt or greater at 250 mb that occur in tandem with each other.
These conditions along with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg will still support slight chance/chance PoPs the first part of the night.

Later tonight there are indications that convection will form along a baroclinic zone across Florida, and also in advance of a short wave approaching form the northwest in the trough aloft. This could require some fine-tuning to the forecast, but for now we still have no more than scattered PoPs.

If we get enough clearing of the mid and high level clouds, there will be the formation of low stratus overnight. But not enough to cause any major reduction in visibilities given too much mixing in the planetary boundary layer.

The low temperature at KCHS Tuesday has been 71F so far, which for the time being has tied the record high minimum temperature for the date. Lows tonight will only be down in the mid 60s to lower 70s given mostly cloudy skies, a southwest flow, and elevated dewpoints.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low and mid level flow will become westerly on Wednesday as a broad shortwave trough moves into the Carolinas. Downslope flow and subsidence will result in a warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Fairly deep mixing should bring drier air aloft down to the surface, with surface dewpoints mixing down into the low 60s inland. For much of the day, there doesn't look like there will be enough forcing or moisture to support precip.
However, late in the afternoon into the evening, the main shortwave will pass to the north, pushing a weak cold front through the area from the northwest. Models show a slight uptick in PWATs and SBCAPE across our northern zones ahead of the front, so scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop as the front drops through late Wednesday. Given the 35 kt bulk shear values and decent instability, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we could see isolated severe thunderstorms across southern SC, particularly north of Beaufort. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern, though large hail would also be possible.

Dry high pressure will build in for Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Friday also looks warm, though moisture should start to increase during the day as a southerly flow develops. A shortwave moving in from the west late in the day could spur scattered showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Several potent upper shortwaves will move through Saturday through Monday, likely bringing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Drier high pressure may rebuild on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain a couple degrees above normal.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: We maintain VFR conditions at all sites through 00Z Thursday, although there are concerns that flight restrictions can occur in low stratus late tonight into Wednesday morning. Guidance shows two entirely different solutions; one with IFR ceilings and the other with VFR ceilings. So we split the difference at went MVFR at the sites between 08Z and 13Z.

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be in the area later tonight and Wednesday. But with such a low probability of a direct impact on any site, we opted not to carry any mention at this time.

All terminals will experience SW wind gusts as high as near 20 kt at times Wednesday afternoon with a somewhat tight gradient in advance of a weak cold front, supplemented by deep mixing.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions possible Saturday through Sunday in scattered showers and tstms.

MARINE
Tonight: A S to SW flow will prevail between low pressure in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, and high pressure centered near Bermuda. This will allow for winds to reach as much as 15 or 20 kt. Seas will mainly be in the range of 3 to 5 feet, although some 6 footers will continue over the outermost parts of the Charleston County waters. Because of this we have a Small Craft Advisory in effect through 1 am.

SW winds on Wednesday should turn to the W Wednesday night through Thursday after a cold front moves through. Southerly flow briefly returns late in the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Conditions expected to remain below advisory thresholds, although Charleston Harbor might get close to advisory levels Wednesday afternoon, depending upon how warm it gets.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350.

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Bluff Plantation
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bluff Plantation, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Lobeco
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:11 AM EDT     7.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:53 PM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lobeco, Whale Branch, South Carolina, Tide feet

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