Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Meggett, SC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:18PM Friday September 21, 2018 11:55 AM EDT (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 2:48AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 938 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 kt.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..E winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 83 degrees.
AMZ300 938 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail into early next week. A coastal trough may impact the area towards the middle of next week, followed by a cold front near the end of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Meggett, SC
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location: 32.7, -80.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 211342
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
942 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail into early next week. A coastal
trough may impact the area towards the middle of next week,
followed by a cold front near the end of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
For the late morning update, only minor changes to hourly
dewpoint grids have been made to account slightly higher
moisture levels nearest the coast. No other changes were needed
with the forecast remaining on track.

Previous discussion:
large, subtropical high pressure will buckle today as a well-
defined tutt low propagates west across the florida peninsula
and into the eastern gulf of mexico. The resulting lower mid-
level heights and deepening onshore flow induced by surface high
pressure propagating offshore of the north carolina outer banks
and virgina tidewater will yield a slightly cooler day with
highs from the lower 90s well inland to the lower-mid 80s at the
beaches. Rap soundings show a pronounced capping inversion
holding in place just below 500 hpa through the day, but a risk
for isolated showers moving inland along the georgia and far
southern south carolina coast from off the atlantic will linger
into the early afternoon, after which, the surface flow will
veer and become increasing divergent with the development of a
pronounced sea breeze circulation. Will carry slight chance pops
roughly along south of a glennville-savannah-hilton head line
with rain-free conditions elsewhere. A mention of tstms will not
be included given the largely stable conditions noted in
regional modified soundings.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Tonight: isolated showers will redevelop over the atlantic
overnight as the flow becomes increasing convergent along west
of the gulf stream. Low-level trajectories favor any activity
that makes a run for the beaches be directed to the mcintosh
county coast where slight chance pops will be highlighted.

Similar to this morning, patches of marine-based stratocumulus
will impact mainly the coastal counties after midnight. Farther
inland, some low stratus and patchy fog could develop just
before sunrise, especially across far interior southeast georgia
near the metter and millen areas. Lows will range from the mid-
upper 60s well inland to the upper 70s near 80 at the beaches
and downtown charleston.

Saturday: the mid-levels will consist of strong high pressure just
off the southeast coast in the morning, with it's western periphery
stretching into the carolina's. The high is expected to slowly
weaken and shift to the east through the day and into the night,
causing heights to lower across our area. At the surface, broad high
pressure will generally be centered over eastern nc. The high will
slowly move offshore during the day as a cold front approaches from
the north. The front is expected to become stationary overnight,
allowing the high to hover offshore. Pwats will start out near 1"
across most of our area in the morning, then increase through the
day and into the night. A sharp gradient sets up with pwats ranging
from ~1.25 over berkeley county to almost 2" across mcintosh county
late at night. The pops reflect this trend. Expect slight chance
values to our south, gradually creeping north in time. No thunder is
expected. Our sc locations should stay dry because of dry mid- level
air and capping. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal.

Sunday: the mid-levels will consist of high pressure off the
southeast coast in the morning, with it's western periphery barely
stretching into our area. The high will continue it slowly weakening
trend and shift to the east through the day and into the first part
of the night, causing heights to lower. But it does appear to
strengthen slightly late at night, causing heights to rise back to
where they were at the beginning of the day. At the surface, high
pressure will be offshore in the morning while a stationary front is
to our north. The front may try to meander across nc by the
overnight, but it will stay away our area. A sharp pwat gradient
will be in place during the morning, with values ranging from ~1.25
over berkeley county to almost 2" across mcintosh county. The higher
values will be ushered to the north, so most locations may be around
2" by the overnight hours. The highest pops are south of the
savannah river. It'll be hard to get any thunderstorms due to the
lack of instability. Again, most of our sc locations should stay dry
because of dry mid-level air and capping. Temperatures will be a few
degrees above normal.

Monday: the mid-levels will consist of high pressure off the
southeast coast in the morning, with it's western periphery barely
stretching into our area. Additionally, a ridge will be over the
great lakes region. The ridge will move eastward through the day and
into the night. This will help to strengthen the high off the coast
and allow heights to rise over our area. At the surface, a coastal
trough is forecasted to slowly approach from the east. Meanwhile, a
stationary front will remain spread across nc. Pwats will be over
2". Models show decent precipitation coverage, so we have above
normal pops. This will also allow temperatures lower to near normal
values for a change.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
Showers are expected throughout the short term due to plenty of
moisture across the region and several features providing lift. A
coastal trough is forecasted to slowly approach from the east Monday
night while a stationary front is to our north. By Tuesday the
coastal trough is forecasted to weaken while it moves overhead or
just to our north. At that time, the stationary front to our north
will transition into a warm front and move northwards while a cold
front slowly approaches our area from the far west. Wednesday the
cold front will continue to slowly approach. Thursday the cold front
is forecasted to start moving into our area, then possibly stall out
in our area.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr. Isolated showers may be around ksav later this morning, but
intensities should remain quite light. No meaningful impacts are
expected and tstms should not occur given the strong capping
inversion noted on rap soundings.

Extended aviation outlook: brief flight restrictions are
possible in showers and or thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Marine
Today: east to northeast winds will veer more solidly east
through the day as a sea breeze circulation develops and moves
inland. A locally pinched gradient could support winds as high
as 15-20 kt along the georgia legs this afternoon with 10-15 kt
over the south carolina legs. The frequent gust potential looks
to remain below 25 kt, so a small craft advisory will not be
posted. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Tonight: a modest easterly flow regime will hold through the
night with winds 10-15 kt diminishing to 5-10 kt late. Seas will
average 2-4 ft, except over the charleston county waters where
seas will subside to 1-2 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: high pressure will prevail just to our
north this weekend, leading to tranquil marine conditions. A
coastal trough is forecasted to slowly approach from the east
Monday. The pressure gradient ahead of this feature will
increase, causing winds seas to trend upwards. However, no small
craft advisories are expected. This feature is forecasted to
weaken while it moves overhead or just to our north on Tuesday.

At that time, winds seas are forecasted to trend downward.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 13 mi71 min NE 4.1 83°F 1023 hPa74°F
CHTS1 20 mi44 min 83°F 83°F1022.9 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 21 mi56 min ENE 14 G 16 81°F 1023.4 hPa (+1.3)68°F
41033 30 mi48 min NE 9.7 G 16 81°F 84°F1022 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 35 mi48 min ENE 12 G 16 81°F 83°F1022.1 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 57 mi44 min 79°F 83°F1022.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC15 mi2 hrsNE 76.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze81°F73°F79%1022.7 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC20 mi2 hrsE 910.00 miA Few Clouds81°F70°F69%1022.6 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi2 hrsENE 810.00 miFair79°F71°F79%1023 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5E8E7E9E10E10E10E10E7
G13
E8E7E5E6E5E4CalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmNE6NE9NE8
1 day agoNW7Calm645S5SE4----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmE3
2 days agoS12S8S10S12SW7SW10S7
G12
S6S5SW6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmNW6CalmN4CalmNW6

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Toogoodoo Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.