Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Meggett, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday June 24, 2017 6:28 AM EDT (10:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:52AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 333 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..SW winds 15 kt, except 15 to 20 kt near the harbor entrance. Waves to 1 to 2 ft near the harbor entrance.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Tue..N winds 5 kt.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 83 degrees.
AMZ300 333 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will gradually move through the area this weekend, moving off the coast Monday. Drier high pressure will build in from the northwest for much of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Meggett, SC
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location: 32.7, -80.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 240809
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
409 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will gradually move through the area this weekend,
moving off the coast Monday. Drier high pressure will build in
from the northwest for much of next week before moving offshore
late week.

Near term through today
Convection will be slow to work its way into southeast south
carolina and southeast georgia today as subtropical high
pressure breaks down ever so slowly. Weak capping noted on
various forecast soundings should hold through early afternoon
before gradually mixing out as temperatures warm through
convective temperatures in the upper 80s. Several broken bands
of showers tstms are expected to develop across central georgia
and the south carolina midlands along a pre-frontal trough by
early mid afternoon as synoptic forcing intensifies ahead of an
approaching 700 hpa shortwave. This activity should approach
the far inland areas, roughly north of a metter to saint george
line, by late afternoon while rain-free conditions persist
central and coastal areas. Pops will be heavily gradated
mid late afternoon, ranging from 40-50% well inland to 0% at the
beaches.

Modified soundings are not overly unstable for late june,
likely due to dewpoints mixing out a bit more compared to the
past several days. SBCAPE 1500-2500 j kg will still support
moderately strong updrafts, but poor mid-level lapse rates and
the lack of strong kinematics will support a mainly pulse
convective mode with the risk for localized damaging wind gusts
being likely confined where mesoscale boundary interactions
occur. Guidance does show 0-6km bulk shear increasing to about
20-25 kt across southern south carolina closer to sunset which
could support a slightly better potential for loosely organized
convective clusters and thus a slightly better potential for
damaging winds.

It will be another hot and somewhat humid day for the region
with highs warming into the lower-mid 90s inland with mid-upper
80s at the beaches. Dewpoints will mix out into the lower 70s
for most areas with some upper 60s possible in the savannah-
ludowici-darien corridor. This will limited heat indices to the
99-102 range and below the pre-july 1st heat advisory criteria
of 105.

Short term tonight through Tuesday
Tonight: the pre-frontal trough will propagate into the area
this evening as a cold front moves into north georgia and the
south carolina upstate. Scattered to numerous showers tstms will
work their way from west-east for much of the evening hours as
700 hpa shortwave passes through and eventually offshore after
midnight. Although the greater synoptic forcing will occur prior
to midnight, convection will likely linger for much of the
night as a cold front meanders into the far inland areas prior
to daybreak Sunday. Pops will range from 70% across much of
southern south carolina to 40% across mcintosh county, ga. Will
have to watch downtown charleston for possible flooding as
convective rains could fall during the elevated evening high
tide. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland with upper
70s at the beaches.

Instability will slowly wane with the loss of insolation and the
risk for severe weather should end by 9 pm or so. Again, the
risk will be highest across southeast south carolina, especially
north of an allendale-folly beach line, where 0-6km bulk shear
of 20-25 kt could support several loosely organized convective
clusters.

Sunday: a broad upper trough will persist across the eastern half of
the country. A cold front will be moving approaching from the
northwest during the morning, slowly moving towards the coast.

Southerly flow will advect plentiful moisture ahead of the front.

Pwats should reach 2.0-2.25", noticeably high for this time of year.

Decent instability should be in place with blcapes expected to reach
2,500 j kg far inland during peak heating along with lifted and
showalter indices trending in the right direction for storm
development. However, low and mid level lapse rates are not too
impressive. 0-6 km bulk shear increases to around 35 kt late in the
afternoon farther inland. We're maintaining showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast with the best opportunity for strong
to maybe severe storms being far inland. The main threat would be
damaging winds, but locally heavy rainfall is also possible. The
storms should be moving fast enough to limit the risk of localized
flooding. Thunderstorms will decrease after sunset. The front is
expected to move through in the evening and overnight hours.

Locations along the coast can expect showers to linger through the
night while locations further inland should see improving conditions.

Monday and Tuesday: the front will linger just offshore Monday
afternoon keeping at least a chance for convection for the coastal
counties. Pops taper as one head inland and it very well could be
completely dry far inland. The front will dissipate and move further
offshore Monday night into Tuesday as continental high pressure
builds into the area. The high will bring dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s
will make it feel very comfortable outside.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
High pressure will pass to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday,
bringing dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures. The
high will shift offshore Wednesday night, allowing southerly flow to
develop. Temperatures will trend back to normal at this time and
moisture will increase, bringing a return to the typical summertime
shower thunderstorm pattern.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr for much of the period, although shower TSTM probabilities
will increase after 00z. Latest cams are a bit slower to bring
showers tstms into the ksav-kchs corridor, but think by 00z
activity will be in the area. Latest guidance suggests kchs may
have a better chance for impacts so will go ahead and introduce
a tempo group from roughly 00-03z for MVFR in tsra. Timing is a
bit more uncertain at ksav with the better forcing progged to
pass by to the north, so will leave any mention of tstms out of
that TAF for now. This will be reevaluated with the 12z taf
cycle.

Extended aviation outlook: periods of flight restrictions are
expected Sunday and Monday due to a cold front slowly moving through
the area.

Marine
Today: a potent nocturnal surge is impacting the waters this
morning with winds ranging from 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
along the charleston county waters with 20 kt elsewhere. Winds
should subside a bit after sunrise as the low-level jet weakens
slightly, but enough will be present to keep winds 15-20 kt
through the day with frequent gusts to 25 kt possible along the
charleston county coastal waters. Seas will average 2-4 ft. A
small craft advisory remains in effect for the charleston county
waters. Winds will once again be close to advisory thresholds
in the charleston harbor this afternoon as the sea breeze moves
inland. Forecast soundings and marine guidance at fbis1 suggest
sustained winds will stay just below 20 kt with frequent gusts
below 25 kt, so will hold of on the issuance of a small craft
advisory for now. However, conditions could be rough at times
for recreational craft from late morning into the mid-afternoon
hours as the tide GOES out and counterflow conditions develop.

Tonight: there will be a potential for a few strong tstms moving
across the coastal waters this evening as a pre-frontal trough
settles in ahead of an approaching cold front. A few of these
storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 35 kt and special
marine warnings may be needed at some point. Otherwise, a modest
southwest surge of 15-20 kt will persist across the waters
overnight with seas 3-5 ft. A small craft advisory will remain
in force this evening for the charleston county waters where
frequent gusts to 25 kt will be possible prior to the arrival of
showers tstms.

Sunday through Wednesday: atlantic high pressure will remain
east of the waters Sunday as a cold front approaches the area.

Sw winds ahead of the front will veer to the NW as the front
moves through Sunday night. No advisories will be needed with
the frontal passage. The front may meander just to our south and
east Monday before it dissipates and is pushed further offshore
late Monday night. High pressure will build into the area
Monday night and Tuesday, passing to the north on Wednesday.

Light winds and low seas are expected during this time frame.

Rip currents: early morning spectral data and buoy observations
show a 2-3 second southeasterly swell is impacting the coastal
waters. Nwps gerling-hanson plots for capers nearshore (41029)
suggest 2 ft, 9 second swell will impact the charleston county
beaches later today, which combined with breezy onshore winds
and lingering astronomical influences will support a high risk
for rip currents. The risk will be especially high from late
morning into mid-afternoon with the outgoing tide. For the
georgia and remaining south carolina beaches, a moderate risk
for rip currents will be maintained as gerling-hanson plots for
fripp nearshore (41033) suggest only a 1 ft, 9 second swell
will beach the beaches. A similar enhancement can be expected,
especially at tybee island, as low tide approaches mid-
afternoon.

Tides coastal flooding
There is a chance tides could reach shallow coastal flooding
thresholds with the evening high tide, mainly along the lower
south carolina coast. A coastal flood advisory may be needed.

Evening high tides will continue to be elevated through Monday due
to astronomical influences. The wind direction is not very conducive
to pushing much surge towards shore, so it's hard to say if we will
reach 7 ft mllw at charleston harbor during the evening high
tides.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... High rip current risk through this evening for scz050.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for amz350.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 13 mi103 min Calm 80°F 1015 hPa77°F
CHTS1 20 mi40 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 81°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 21 mi28 min SW 16 G 21 81°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.6)77°F
41033 30 mi80 min SW 18 G 23 82°F 83°F1014.8 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 35 mi80 min WSW 19 G 27 86°F 82°F1014.5 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 57 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 8 79°F 84°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC15 mi33 minSSW 9 G 158.00 miOvercast81°F78°F94%1015.2 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC20 mi32 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F88%1015 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi53 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmN6N4N6N6N6NE4E6CalmE8E6NE5CalmNE4CalmCalmS4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Toogoodoo Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, South Carolina
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Lower Toogoodoo Creek
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Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:22 AM EDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:45 PM EDT     -1.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:49 PM EDT     8.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.23.71.3-0.4-0.70.21.83.55.16.476.85.53.31-0.8-1.2-0.41.43.75.87.58.78.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:15 AM EDT     -3.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:31 PM EDT     -3.00 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:25 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     2.34 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.4-3.1-2-0.60.81.71.81.51.20.4-0.8-2-2.9-2.9-2-0.60.822.32.11.81.2-0.1-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.