Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Meggett, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:44 PM EDT (16:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:44PMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1045 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Today..SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..W winds 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 kt after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 80 degrees.
AMZ300 1045 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will dominate and will produce unseasonably hot conditions from Friday into the later part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Meggett, SC
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location: 32.7, -80.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 231454
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1054 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate and will produce unseasonably hot
conditions from Friday into the later part of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1050 am: latest visible satellite and view out of the
window shows small-celled fair weather CU across the forecast
area. I suspect that the CU will likely start to mix out during
the early to mid afternoon. I will update the forecast to
increase sky cover through mid day, then decreasing clouds
during the afternoon. Temperatures and wx appear on track.

Previous discussion:
initialized this update with a bit more cloud cover this
morning per current satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast
was pretty much unchanged from the previous cycle.

Surface high pressure will extend across the region today. The
mid and upper-level anticyclones centered over georgia and south
carolina will strengthen and retrograde slightly signaling the
beginning of a prolonged and potentially dangerous early season
heat wave across the southeast states. There is a window for
areas south of i-16 to potentially see an isolated shower this
morning through early afternoon in the vicinity of a narrow 925
hpa theta-e axis aligned northwest-southeast. Other than the
nssl-wrf and arw, the remaining href members are rain-free so
will keep gridded pops below mentionable thresholds in this
region for now. Forecast soundings show a capping inversion
strengthening through the day with the cap reaching 2-3c by
mid late afternoon. Any risk for a shower should end by then,
especially as the pure sea breeze circulation moves inland.

Onshore winds will once again limit temperatures across the
coastal counties, but h8 temperatures are progged to rise ~2c
later in the day. This will result in another day with a large
thermal gradient with highs ranging from the mid-90s across the
far interior to the upper 70s lower 80s at the beaches. Will
likely see a few spots in the statesboro- reidsville-metter
corridor reach the upper 90s, similar to Wednesday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday
Tonight: the surface high will shift to the south overnight
resulting in gradually shift to a more south to southwest flow
regime. The boundary layer will gradually decouple through the
night, first across the far interior, then working east to the
coast during the early morning hours Friday. Expect a least
modest radiational cooling to influence the low temperature
forecast, but it remains unclear how much stratus will develop
after midnight. Will trend to the cooler side of the guidance
envelop with lows ranging from the mid-upper 60s inland to the
mid 70s at the coast and downtown charleston. Dry conditions
will persist with shallow ground fog possible prior to daybreak
Friday.

Friday through Sunday: models continue to be in good agreement
with strong upper level ridging persisting over the area through
the short term period. This will result in the beginning of a
prolonged and dangerous heat wave.

Friday: large scale sinking motion and dry air in the mid and upper
levels will result in nearly full Sun with much of the energy going
into the warming of the atmosphere. Downslope flow will keep the sea
breeze pinned at or near the coast for much of the day so areas near
the beaches will be rather hot too. Highs expected to be mainly in
the mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast, with heat
indices topping out from 95 to 101.

Saturday: models in fairly good agreement that a weak backdoor cold
front will push slowly south through at least a good portion of
southeast south carolina during the day before stalling out and then
dissipating Saturday evening and overnight. Both the GFS and ecmwf
show decent instability with CAPE values from 1000 to 2000 j kg
developing in the afternoon mainly along and north of the front.

Despite strong ridging aloft, the 00z GFS breaks out convection
along and north of the front, mainly during the afternoon. This
combined with a hint of this occurring with the NAM as well and the
12z GFS hinting at the same solution a bit further north, including
a slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast seems warranted.

The backdoor front, onshore flow, and potential for at least a few
thunderstorms will result in a slowing of the warmup for areas in
south carolina generally east of i-95. Highs should range from the
mid to upper 80s at the beaches in southeast south carolina to
mainly the mid and upper 90s along and west of i-95. Heat indices
could reach as high as 102 across interior southeast georgia.

Sunday: northwest flow in the lower levels returns, but it may not
be quite strong enough to keep sea breeze pinned at the coast all
day. With downslope flow, full sun, a dry ground, and 850 mb
temperatures likely to be from 19 to 20 degrees celsius, expect high
temperatures to be from 85 to 90 at the coast and generally from 97
to 102 inland. Heat indices away from the coast are expected to be
from 102 to 106 degrees. As a result, heat advisories may be needed
for some areas.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
There does not appear to be any relief in the dangerous and
prolonged heat wave through at least Thursday. Continued sinking
motion, a dry atmosphere above the boundary layer which will result
in nearly full sun, a dry ground, and 850 mb temperatures generally
within a degree or two of 20 celsius all point to high temperatures
from 97 to 103 degrees away from the coast. Heat indices at or above
105 which would prompt a heat advisory may occur on any of the days.

The need for a heat advisory seems mostly likely to be needed on
Monday and or Tuesday. Air quality issues may develop at any point
during this period due to the excessive heat and generally stagnant
air pattern. Even though winds will be on the lighter side, hot
conditions and dry fuels could aid in the development of wild fires.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Vfr.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Marine
Through tonight: east to southeast winds will veer to the south
and southwest tonight as high pressure sinks to the south. A
period of elevated winds will occur near the coast and
charleston harbor once again as a pure sea breeze circulation
moves inland. Winds should peak 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt there
with 10-15 kt elsewhere. Winds will diminish closer to 10 kt
overnight. 2-4 ft seas this morning will subside to 1-3 ft
through the period.

Friday through Tuesday: other than east to southeast winds which
develop mainly in the south carolina waters on Saturday, south to
southwest winds will prevail through the period. Wind speed will be
below 15 knots except possibly a bit higher near the coast and in
various harbors associated with the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will
mainly be from 1 to 3 feet.

Climate
A very significant, hazardous and prolonged heat wave will challenge
or break many of these records.

Record for Thu 05 23...

station record high min year
------- --------------- ----
kcxm 77 1998
records for Fri 05 24...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1953
ksav 98 2011, 1953
records for Sat 05 25...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 2000, 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1953
ksav 76 1878
kcxm 79 1998
records for Sun 05 26...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1998
kcxm 79 1998
records for Mon 05 27...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1989
ksav 98 1989, 1962
kcxm 95 1962, 1926
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 1991
ksav 77 1878
kcxm 78 1991
records for Tue 05 28...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1967, 1964
ksav 96 1964, 1898
kcxm 93 2000
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2000
ksav 76 1885
kcxm 80 2000
records for Wed 05 29...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 1945
ksav 98 1945, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2018
ksav 75 1885
kcxm 77 1998
records for Thu 05 30...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 2004
ksav 101 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1982
ksav 75 1924
kcxm 78 1998

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 13 mi119 min E 1.9 85°F 1025 hPa69°F
CHTS1 20 mi56 min SSE 6 G 8.9 1025.9 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 21 mi44 min SE 6 G 7 78°F 1026.5 hPa (+1.1)69°F
41033 30 mi156 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 78°F1025.2 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 35 mi96 min ESE 1.9 G 7.8 78°F 78°F1025.6 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 57 mi62 min E 7 G 8.9 78°F 79°F1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC15 mi49 minVar 69.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1025.7 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC20 mi1.8 hrsVar 510.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F66°F59%1025.2 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F55%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm45E7
1 day agoS10S11S10S11S9S8S9S3S4S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS8S5S5SE66
2 days agoS11S11S11S14S10S9S11S6S7S7S7S7S7S5SW5SW6S4CalmCalmSW5W9SW6W7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Toogoodoo Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, South Carolina
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Lower Toogoodoo Creek
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Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     7.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:34 PM EDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.87.37.164.32.51.10.61.12.13.44.55.35.85.853.72.31.20.91.32.43.75

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:48 AM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:11 PM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.7-1.6-2.2-2.2-1.6-0.70.31.11.410.70.2-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.50.20.91.31.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.