Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:54 PM   Moonset 2:36 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 330 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - NE winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 10 kt. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 77 degrees.

AMZ300 330 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Unsettled weather continues ahead of a cold front that will cross the area later Sunday. High pressure then dominates through much of the coming week, with another storm system potentially impacting the area late week.

FXUS62 KCHS 182003 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 403 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues ahead of a cold front that will cross the area later Sunday. High pressure then dominates through much of the coming week, with another storm system potentially impacting the area late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Late this afternoon, KCLX detected a ragged band of showers across the forecast area. Based on radar trends and stable environment, these showers should gradually dissipate through the rest of this afternoon. Isolated to scattered convection will remain possible this evening through overnight, little additional rainfall expected.
Late tonight, high clouds are expected to decrease from west to east across the region. Given the wet ground and light winds, patchy fog or ground fog may develop inland late tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s inland to near 70 along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be over the Southeast U.S. in the morning. It'll slowly shift offshore into the evening and overnight. The dominate cold front will be stretched along the SC coast and the I-16 corridor in the morning with ridging building in from the north and west behind it. This diffuse front may get hung up in the sea breeze if it is still nearby come midday, providing enhanced initiation for convection.

The main story for Sunday has become the clear threat for heavy rainfall. Deep moisture will remain in place across the region with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0" range. These values are above the 90% mark per SPC sounding climatology for CHS. They're also about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS. With all of the moisture and lift in place, models are in good agreement that widespread showers will develop with increasing instability come midday. Very slow storm motions - less than 10 mph - and very high rain rates - perhaps on the order of 2 to 3 inches per hour - could bring localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4+ inches over the course of several hours in the afternoon. The flooding threat will be enhanced for areas that received 1-2+ inches from Beaufort County to the I-16 corridor and south on Saturday.

Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a positively tilted trough just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, and a ridge just to our west. The ridge will slowly build into our area as time progresses. At the surface, High pressure centered well to our north will build down the coast, with it's southern periphery making its way into our area. The High will bring drier conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny/clear. Low-level thickness values support temperatures in the middle 80s. But we went a little below this due to the northeasterly surface winds and the expectation that surface evaporation should limit temperatures. Highs should peak in the lower 80s. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast.

Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, while a ridge will prevail over the Southeast U.S. High pressure centered just to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses.
Though, it's southern periphery will continue to dominate our weather. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should rise to near normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid-level ridging will be over our region through Wednesday, followed by southwest flow on Thursday. A weak trough may pass to our north on Friday. Broad surface High pressure will stretch from just to our north into the Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday.
It's expected to shift offshore later Thursday. A cold front could approach from the northwest later Friday, possibly bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be trending higher, reaching into the 90s by Thursday.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/SAV: KCLX detected stratiform across the terminals, occasional lightning strikes observed near KSAV. It is possible that MVFR visibility during -TSRA may remain over KSAV into the mid-afternoon. Otherwise, KCHS and KJZI should see showers remain over the terminal into the mid to late afternoon. The challenge overnight will be the potential development of fog and/or MVFR ceilings. At this time, only the KSAV will indicated MVFR fog developing at 8Z and remaining through the rest of the night. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that MVFR stratus will develop at daybreak at each terminal, remaining through Sunday morning.

Sunday: Widespread showers/storms expected Sunday afternoon. These storms will move very slowly and produce heavy rainfall, with the potential for prolonged periods of vis restrictions in heavy rainfall in the afternoon.

Sunday night through Wednesday: VFR expected to prevail.

MARINE
The sfc pattern should support south winds between 10 to 15 kts tonight. Wave heights are forecast to gradually build to 2-3 ft by late tonight.

Sunday through mid-week: A weak cold front nearby will bring the potential for showers and storms with heavy rainfall and lightning Sunday afternoon. The cold front will push offshore later Sunday, with ridging building inland and troughing persisting well offshore through mid-week. The strongest gradient will occur on Monday morning, with wind gusts to around 20 kt possible across much of the coastal waters, and seas increasing to 3-5 ft (in mainly windswell)
accordingly. The gradient then gradually weakens and seas gradually subside as the inland high becomes more dominate Tuesday and Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The combination of high astronomical tide levels and moderate to breezy NE winds will bring the potential for elevated tide levels early next week. Minor flooding is possible with the early evening high tide Monday mainly along the South Carolina coast.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Church Creek bridge
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Sat -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     6.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:08 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Church Creek bridge, Wadmalaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 01:34 AM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:07 PM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EDT     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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