Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Richland Hills, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:15PM Friday February 15, 2019 8:51 PM CST (02:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richland Hills, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 152348
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
548 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019

Aviation
00z tafs
concerns -- decreasing CIGS overnight and into morning. MVFR
likely. Ifr possible. Winds returning to S flow by Saturday
afternoon.

An arctic cold front continues to make its way across central tx
with N flow now in place at all TAF sites. Sustained winds are
around 10-15 kt with a few gusts to around 20 kt being reported
during the past few hours. Visible satellite imagery reveals a
vast post-frontal stratus deck over ok ks with a number of metar
sites reporting MVFR and even ifr cigs. This cloud deck should
make its way into the d10 tracon during the overnight hours... With
north tx TAF sites likely becoming MVFR by 16 1000z. Rap and nam
soundings are fairly aggressive with low-level moistening during
the morning hours... And some ifr CIGS are not out of the question.

At this time... Confidence was not high enough to include in
tafs... But CIGS may need to be lowered further in later taf
issuances.

By Saturday afternoon... Winds should return to S flow as the axis
of high pressure behind the cold front moves into the ms valley
and a weak surface low develops in the vicinity of kiah. Cigs
should improve slowly late in the afternoon.

Aloft... A potent jet stream digging into the southern plains will
produce occasional severe turbulence at fl200-300. The strongest
turbulence will be found near the axis of the 170+ kt jet which
will move out of the southwest and into the southern plains during
the next 24 hours. For more information... Refer to the latest
sigmet products.

Godwin

Short term issued 318 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019
through tonight
big temperature changes coming to north and central texas tonight.

1800z surface analysis revealed a 1004 mb surface low over dallas.

A cold front runs through this surface low out into west texas,
and to the east into southern arkansas. This cold front demarcates
the boundary between continental arctic (ca) air to the north and
maritime tropical (mt) air to the southeast of the surface low.

The air mass over east texas is characterized by temperatures in
the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s, while the air mass to the north
of the cold front over the sooner state is characterized by
temperatures in the 30s and dewpoints in the 20s.

The cold front has been shy about moving south through the day
with little in the way of upper-level support to encourage it to
continue southward. The southward push should begin forthwith
however as an upper-level shortwave trough along the lee of the
colorado and new mexico rockies ejects into the great plains. The
cold front should clear dallas fort worth in the next few hours,
and reach the killeen temple waco area a little after sundown.

Cold air advection behind the front will result in rapidly
falling temperatures, with lows tonight expected to drop into the
30s for the northern two-thirds of our forecast area, and into
the 40s in our two southeasternmost tiers of counties. A light
freeze is expected in rural areas north of interstate 20 (the
urban heat island effect should keep overnight lows in the
dallas fort worth metropolitan area just above the freezing mark).

While winds will not be particularly strong overnight, northerly
winds at around 10 mph will result in wind chills in the 20s for
most areas north of interstate 20 (including in dallas and tarrant
counties). In terms of precipitation potential, the 1200z raob
from fort worth showed very dry air immediately above the boundary
layer ahead of the cold front, with both mid-level and low-level
mean relative humidity values below 35%. This lack of moisture
should keep precipitation chances near zero through the overnight
period.

Godwin

Long term issued 318 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019
Saturday through next week
main focus of the long-term forecast is the return to a
southwesterly mid upper flow regime through most, if not all, of
next week, and a resultant increase in precipitation chances
(primarily on Tuesday). Right now, we are not anticipating any
significant winter-weather impacts across our area, but surface
temperatures will be close to freezing across western north texas
so this area will likely be the largest focus going forward. More
info below.

In the meantime, Saturday presents another tricky temperature
forecast, with a large gradient possible across north and central
texas. Low clouds, in association with the frontal surface aloft,
are forecast across much of the region during the morning hours.

Through the day, though, strengthening west southwesterly flow
aloft and increased low-level mixing will advance east across the
region. Cloud cover is expected to gradually diminish from west
to east through the day, but broken overcast skies will likely
hold steady east of i-35 and north of i-20 into the
afternoon evening. Therefore, forecasting a tight gradient in
high temps (mid 70s southwest, near 50 northeast) and these cooler
conditions may not be cold enough. Later updates may have to
tweak highs downward for locales in the direction of
sherman bonham paris sulphur springs. Additionally, some patchy
drizzle will be possible across east texas during the day, under
the influence of poleward 925mb theta-e advection.

A passing front brings a low chance for light showers across east
texas Saturday night. Then temperatures cool on a broader scale Sunday
and especially Monday, as high pressure builds over the
central southern plains in response to building heights aloft
behind a missouri valley system. Conditions should be relatively
dry, although strengthening southwesterly mid upper flow will
likely yield a solid plume of upper-level cloud cover across texas
into early next week. Meanwhile, in the western-us pattern that can't
stop (won't stop), another strong jet streak will drop south
along the pacific coast Monday, amplifying an already well-
established trough over the inter-mountain west.

Ahead of this trough, isentropic ascent atop a shallow, cold air
mass will stream low-level clouds northward Monday night.

Precipitation chances will increase accordingly and should be
light initially. Towards breckenridge graham bowie, surface
temperatures may be close to freezing initially, although guidance
continues to suggest any potential for more significant issues
will be just northwest of our area. Still, given the proximity of
sub-freezing temps and also potential for wet-bulb cooling, have
advertised a slight chance of freezing rain across the far
west northwest Tuesday morning. With only marginal surface
temperatures, though, believe the potential for significant
impacts is low at this time.

Expect a cold rain everywhere else on Tuesday, as temperatures
range from the mid 30s to upper 40s. The amount of precipitation
over central and north texas will likely be a function of the
amplification of an ejecting mid upper system over the plains (related
to the jet streak discussed above), given its impact on low mid-
level thermal advection and frontogenetic ascent. The 15 12z ecmwf
cycle suggests a more amplified solution, but this potential
remains uncertain. Regardless, a developing cyclone ejects
northeast across the lower mississippi valley Tuesday night, which
should bring drying mid levels and an end to any deeper
precipitation processes. There could be a quick mix of light
rain snow (once again across far northwestern areas) before
precipitation ends Tuesday night, in tandem with a cooling column
behind the aforementioned departing low. Still, not anticipating
any notable impacts at this time due to precipitation ceasing
before surface temperatures cool dramatically.

The region remains under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft
and a switch to low-level return flow by late week. Temperatures
are expected to modify slowly, but precipitation
timing distribution remains of low predictability, due to the
subtle nature of shortwave troughs within the broader synoptic
regime. In turn, only show slight rain chances by Friday.

Picca

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 34 57 41 60 34 0 0 5 0 5
waco 39 65 45 61 39 0 0 5 0 10
paris 35 50 41 58 33 0 0 10 0 5
denton 31 55 38 57 31 0 0 5 0 5
mckinney 33 51 40 58 33 0 0 5 0 5
dallas 36 58 44 60 35 0 0 5 0 5
terrell 37 57 45 60 36 0 0 10 0 10
corsicana 40 61 48 62 39 0 0 10 0 10
temple 42 68 48 64 41 0 0 5 0 10
mineral wells 32 61 39 60 31 0 0 5 0 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

37 91


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX9 mi59 minN 18 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy45°F34°F66%1011.4 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX9 mi59 minNNW 13 G 2110.00 miFair50°F35°F57%1011 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX9 mi57 minNNW 12 G 1710.00 miFair49°F34°F56%1011.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX11 mi60 minN 17 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F33°F55%1010.6 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX13 mi59 minN 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F34°F63%1011.1 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX15 mi57 minN 1110.00 miFair49°F35°F60%1012.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX16 mi59 minN 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F33°F65%1012.6 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX18 mi59 minNNW 1510.00 miFair49°F36°F61%1010.7 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX20 mi59 minN 710.00 miOvercast49°F36°F61%1011.5 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX24 mi65 minN 13 G 1710.00 miClear46°F33°F62%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from GKY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S5S5S8S7S7S6S5S7S7S5S4S5S6S7SW76NW10NW11NW13N11N15N15NW13
G21
1 day agoS16
G24
S14
G21
S16
G22
S12
G23
S14
G22
S18
G26
S15
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S10
G17
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G20
S12S13
G18
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G19
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S15
G26
S10
G21
S9
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SW13
G22
SW10
G20
S11S8S9S3S7S7
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmSW4S3SE3CalmCalmCalmS5SW3S5S12S9S13
G17
S12
G22
SE16
G23
S15
G24
S15
G22
S13
G21
SE11SE13S15
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.