Monday, May20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Richland Hills, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:25PM Monday May 20, 2019 1:22 AM CDT (06:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richland Hills, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.2     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 200435
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1135 pm cdt Sun may 19 2019

06z tafs
concerns and challenges: timing MVFR ifr CIGS into the airports
after midnight, any spotty visibility restrictions (as well as -dz
at waco) in the morning, along with isolated-scattered showers
increasing later in the morning. Increasing sse S winds on Monday.

Currently,VFR will be the rule across all airports through until
08z-10z Monday. In addition, most airports will start off with ene
winds less than 10 knots, a stationary front near waco regional
airport. An increasing 25-35 knot LLJ currently in advance of our
deep upper low over ca nv is expected to help mix this surface front
northward as a warm front before daybreak and toward the red river
valley through midday Monday. With a modest EML overhead, I have
elected to add vcsh in the late morning into the mid afternoon
period as the warm sector overtakes much of the area. Feeling is
any isolated, discrete TS development will likely take hold closer
to the warm front and immediate red river valley, so will leave
vcts out of dfw metro airports for now.

With low level warm advection now increasing across the area,
status across south-central and southeast texas will surge rapidly
northward into all airports by 09z, with CIGS straddling fl010, so
both low MVFR and ifr by 12z Tuesday and beyond. Surface winds
should continue to veer SE around 10 knots through daybreak,
before increasing to between 15-20 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
by 18z and beyond Monday... Continuing through Monday night. As
surface temperatures warm and allow the surface to boundary layer
to couple, CIGS should rise intoVFR by 18z and after and could
even scatter for awhile by Tuesday evening.

I expected the best forcing for strong-severe TS to remain across
the tx panhandle, NW tx, and up into ok through 08z-09z Monday,
before a weakening line of storms enters the i-35 corridor before
12z Tuesday. I have introduced a return of MVFR CIGS and vcts
during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday.

Plenty of uncertainty exists on timing and trends of both CIGS and
convection in upcoming forecasts, so be sure to keep up with
future amendments and tafs on Monday regarding our approaching mid
level system.


Update issued 534 pm cdt Sun may 19 2019
i have went ahead and removed late afternoon-early evening slight
chances of storms across central texas. GOES visible satellite has
shown cumulus field struggling to get going along and south of our
stalled surface front.

A couple of factors are likely playing into this:
1. Subsidence behind yesterdays storms and disturbance.

2. Laps and rap soundings showing an eml(likely from the aforementioned
residual subsidence) strengthening between 700mb-800mb. Also,
southwest flow aloft is amplifying in advance of a the next upper
system dropping south across ca nv.

And finally...

3. Dry-air entrainment -- (moisture is minuscule thin both above
and below the eml).

Otherwise, the front should lift back northward toward the red
river valley after midnight and through daybreak Monday in
response to increasing 925mb-850mb to between 20-30 knots,
especially west of i-35. As such, patchy fog drizzle remains
possible across central texas overnight with the increasing low
level warm advection.


Short term issued 337 pm cdt Sun may 19 2019
there will be a low risk for showers and an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon mainly across the brazos valley. While the CU field
looks a little less than impressive. This may be in response to to
lingering subsidence. However... The instability---thanks to 90
degree temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s---remains
quite robust at this hour. There will still remain a risk for
convective initiation through the late afternoon to early evening
hours southeast of a temple to mexia to palestine line. A strong
or severe storm capable of strong to possibly damaging winds will
remain possible if a storm can mature.

The aformentioned front should lift northward tonight in response
to a deepening surface low to the northwest. Moisture will slosh
northward with the aid of southerly winds. The subsequent
waa isentropic upglide could result in some sprinkles or light
rain showers, but widespread measurable rain appears unlikely.

There will be a risk for some patchy drizzle or perhaps light
fog... Especially south of i-20. At this time, winds aloft (around
925mb) may be too strong to preclude a more appreciable fog
episode across the region. Should these winds aloft underachieve,
then increasing low level moisture coupled with recent rainfall
could set the stage for a hybrid advection radiation fog scenario
across the area.


Long term issued 337 pm cdt Sun may 19 2019
Monday through Sunday
a low pressure system will gather strength across the western u.S.

On Monday, resulting in a warm, humid and breezy day. Increasing
southerly surface winds will lift the cold front north of the red
river quickly Monday morning while southwesterly flow aloft draws
warm air off of the mexican plateau, reinforcing the cap.

Therefore, storms are not expected for most areas during the day
Monday, but a few brief storms may develop on the retreating
front across the northwest zones in the morning along with a few
warm air advection sprinkles farther south. Isolated to scattered
storms are possible across the northwest zones during the
afternoon early evening on outflows from west texas southwestern
oklahoma storms, but the cap may hold until stronger forcing

Additional storms are expected to develop across the low rolling
plains and permian basin Monday evening as the powerful upper low
pivots northeast towards the central high plains. The storms
should organize into a linear complex as large scale lift, mid
level instability and deep layer shear increase. The line of
storms will enter into western north texas late in the evening and
spread eastward through the night Tuesday morning. Damaging winds
will be the primary hazard, but some storms may contain hail. An
overall decrease in storm strength is anticipated as the line
moves east of the i-35 corridor from mid morning through early
afternoon Tuesday. However, storm intensification is likely during
the heat of the afternoon, but this should occur east of the
forecast area. We will have to watch the speed of the line closely
since a slower progression would result in a better chance for
strong to severe storms across the eastern zones Tuesday

We were considering a flash flood watch for portion of the area
for Monday night Tuesday since most areas received appreciable
rainfall yesterday. However, moisture should remain confined below
850 mb with this system and the progressive nature of the
anticipated line should keep rainfall totals generally less than
an inch. If future guidance suggests slightly deeper moisture or
slower speed of the storms, later shifts may need to issue a flash
flood watch.

Rain storm chances will end Tuesday night once the lead upper low
moves toward the northern plains and an amplified ridge begins to
nudge in from the east. Although the upper ridge axis should
remain east of the region, its presence should keep north and
central texas warm and generally rain free the second half of the
week through the weekend. It will remain humid, however, with low
pressure in the west keeping a constant influx of gulf moisture.

It does look like storms will remain a possibility across west
texas and western oklahoma the second half of the week as a series
of weak disturbances move through southwest flow aloft. These
storms may send some outflows toward the northwest zones during
the afternoon and evening. Therefore, we will maintain some low
pops in that area generally Thursday through Saturday.

Temperatures next week will be near or above seasonal normals
with highs generally in the middle and upper 80s and lows ranging
from the middle 60s to the middle 70s.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 70 86 70 81 67 5 10 40 70 10
waco 72 88 72 83 68 10 10 30 60 10
paris 66 84 70 78 64 0 10 30 60 10
denton 68 86 67 79 64 5 20 40 70 10
mckinney 67 85 69 79 64 5 20 30 70 10
dallas 72 87 71 81 68 5 10 30 70 10
terrell 70 87 71 79 66 5 10 30 60 10
corsicana 73 88 71 80 69 10 10 30 60 10
temple 73 88 72 82 68 10 10 30 60 10
mineral wells 67 86 65 81 62 10 20 60 50 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories

05 08

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX9 mi29 minE 610.00 miFair72°F59°F64%1010.7 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX9 mi29 minENE 710.00 miFair75°F60°F60%1010.8 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX9 mi27 minE 710.00 miFair73°F58°F60%1012.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX11 mi30 minE 510.00 miFair73°F60°F64%1010.2 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX13 mi29 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F57°F59%1010.6 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX15 mi27 minN 07.00 miFair71°F61°F71%1012.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX16 mi29 minENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F61°F68%1010.7 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX18 mi29 minE 710.00 miFair72°F60°F66%1010.8 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX20 mi29 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F59°F58%1010.9 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX24 mi47 minE 810.00 miFair74°F58°F59%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from GKY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S4CalmS4W4W7NW7N9N11N8NW13N11NE9N6NE10NE3NE6E6NE7E5NE5NE6E6E7
1 day agoS14
2 days agoS13S11S8S7S9SE8S7SE12S14

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.